
Alphabet 是科技界最接近“一站式 AI 商店”的公司,拥有前沿模型、快速增长的云计算业务、大规模自研芯片项目以及庞大的核心广告业务。
Alphabet is the closest thing in tech to a one-stop AI shop, with a frontier model, a fast-growing cloud-computing business, a major in-house chip effort and a large core advertising business.
这种充满活力的多元化布局,在 AI 热潮步入更加不确定、资金受限的新阶段时,本应是巨大优势。然而,这家 Google 母公司的股票并未像同行那样受到投资者青睐,周三盘后交易中股价一度下跌近 10%,此前其公布的第三季度广告销售增长未达分析师预期。
That diversity of vibrant pursuits should be a huge advantage in the more uncertain, capital-constrained phase that the AI boom is now entering. Yet the Google parent’s stock isn’t getting as much love from investors as its peers, including a nearly 10% drop in after-hours trading Wednesday after reporting third-quarter ad-sales growth that missed analysts’ forecasts.
微软在其自身财报中实现季度营收增长 19%,超出分析师预期,周三收盘时其远期市盈率约为 25 倍,高于 Alphabet 约 20 倍的水平。
Microsoft, which beat analysts’ forecasts with a 19% rise in quarterly revenue in its own results, was trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 25 at the Wednesday close—a premium to Alphabet’s ratio of around 20 times.
微软确实拥有粘性极强的核心企业软件客户群,以及庞大的 Azure 云计算业务,第三季度营收增长 48%。但它没有自己的前沿 AI 模型,其 AI 芯片业务的发展程度也不如 Google 成熟。
Microsoft does have a sticky core corporate software customer base and a big cloud-computing business in Azure, which boosted revenue by 48% in the third quarter. It doesn’t have a frontier AI model of its own. Nor does it have an AI chip business as well-developed as Google’s.
其他科技巨头虽各有 Google 具备的部分要素,但无一家拥有全部。Amazon.com 拥有独特的庞大电商业务,同时运营全球最大的云计算业务和实力雄厚的 AI 芯片业务,但它没有前沿模型。Meta Platforms 拥有领先的 AI 模型,却无显著的云计算业务,其 AI 芯片项目进展也不算太快。这两家公司的估值倍数均高于 Alphabet。
Other tech giants have some of Google’s ingredients, but none has everything. Amazon.com has a huge e-commerce operation that sets it apart, alongside the world’s largest cloud-computing operation and a strong AI-chip business. But it doesn’t have a frontier model. Meta Platforms has a leading AI model but no significant cloud-computing business, and its AI chip effort isn’t that far along. Both of those companies trade at higher multiples than Alphabet.
那么,为何 Google 被视为落后者?AI 代理可能蚕食其搜索引擎霸主地位,其 AI 野心所需资金极高,且它没有一款能与 Meta、OpenAI 和 Anthropic 所提供产品完全对标的消费级 AI 代理应用。
So why is Google seen as a laggard? AI agents could erode its search-engine dominance, financing needs for its AI ambitions are sky-high, and it doesn’t have a consumer AI agent app that matches up exactly with what Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic offer.
这些挑战确实存在。但 Google 手中握有多张王牌,足以应对所有这些挑战。
Those are all legitimate challenges. But Google has arrows in its quiver to fend off all of them.
AI 对谷歌搜索业务的威胁长期以来被夸大了。Alphabet 的广告收入增速不及华尔街预期——其第三季度收入为 820 亿美元,同比增长约 10.5%,低于分析师预测。
AI’s threat to Google’s search franchise has long been overstated. Alphabet’s ad revenue isn’t growing as fast as Wall Street wants—its third-quarter revenue of $82 billion was up by around 10.5%, lower than analysts’ forecasts.
但该公司将 AI 工具整合进搜索引擎,深受用户欢迎,且尚未完全变现。首席商务官 Philipp Schindler 周三表示,公司目前才开始在国际范围内扩展其 AI 模式搜索功能中的广告。公司周三还表示,Gemini 应用增长强劲:用户数已突破 10 亿。这可能为广告增长提供另一杠杆。
But the company’s integration of AI tools into its search engine has been well received among users and hasn’t been fully monetized. The company is only now expanding ads in its AI Mode search function internationally, Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said Wednesday. The company’s Gemini app is also growing strongly: It surpassed one billion users, the company said Wednesday. That could provide another lever for ad growth.
从长远来看,更大的问题可能在于公司如何在保持搜索主导地位的同时,将广告融入其 AI 产品。用户希望获得不受广告商影响的 AI 驱动搜索结果,而谷歌有动力投放尽可能多的广告,二者之间存在张力。
A bigger problem in the long term may be how the company works advertising into its AI offerings while maintaining its search dominance. There is a tension between users who want AI-driven search results that aren’t influenced by advertisers and Google, which has an interest in serving up as many ads as it can.
不过,这几乎是所有追逐 AI 的公司都面临的问题。与 OpenAI 等竞争对手相比,谷歌占据优势,后者在建立和发展广告业务方面经验甚少。
Still, that is a problem for nearly everyone pursuing AI. And Google has a leg up over some competitors, like OpenAI, that have little experience building and growing an advertising business.
Alphabet 的资本需求构成另一挑战,但它相对具备良好应对条件。据 FactSet 数据,公司今年计划资本支出约 2000 亿美元,明年将增至分析师预测的约 3120 亿美元。
Alphabet’s capital needs present another challenge it is relatively well equipped to overcome. The company is planning capital expenditures of around $200 billion this year, increasing to an analyst forecast of about $312 billion next year, according to FactSet.
在 AI 相关债券收益率上升、对 AI 繁荣的担忧四起之际,这是一笔巨款。但 Alphabet 早早采取行动锁定融资,颇具远见,截至第三季度末持有 2650 亿美元现金及有价证券——居大型科技公司之首。随着 AI 繁荣进入靠资本获取能力定高低的阶段,它至少在竞争对手面前占得先机。
That is a lot of money at a time when AI-linked bond yields are going up and jitters about the AI boom abound. But Alphabet has been shrewd about acting early to secure financing and had $265 billion of cash and marketable securities at the end of the third quarter—more than any other big tech company. As the AI boom shifts to a period where staying on top hinges on access to capital, it at least has a head start on rivals.
然而,谷歌尚未确立其优势的一个新领域是消费者人工智能代理。Meta凭借其Muse代理在该领域占据了领先地位,自9月推出以来,该代理的下载量已超过1000万次。
One new area where Google has yet to assert its advantages, however, is in consumer AI agents. Meta has taken pole position there with its Muse agent, which has amassed over 10 million downloads since it launched in September.
谷歌尚未推出面向消费者的专用人工智能代理应用。相反,它在本月初推出了一款面向企业的代理,将其宣传为一款多功能工具,可以回答问题、管理工作任务和编写代码。
Google has yet to launch a dedicated AI agent app for consumers. Instead, it launched an agent for businesses early this month, pitching it as an all-purpose tool that answers questions, manages work tasks and writes code.
这种较慢的做法很可能最终胜出。代理虽然热门,但也存在风险——最近的代理驱动网络攻击就是明证——而且在大规模应用上基本未经检验。先向企业推出,让谷歌在将代理推向更大、更难以驾驭的消费者群体之前,能够从一小部分成熟用户那里获得经验和反馈。
That slower approach could easily win the day. Agents are buzzy, but they are also risky—as evidenced by recent agent-driven cyberattacks—and are largely untested on a mass scale. Rolling them out to businesses gives Google experience and feedback from a narrower set of sophisticated users before pushing them onto a bigger and more unwieldy set of consumers.
首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊周三提到了这一动态,他在与分析师的电话会议上表示,公司之所以先向企业推出Gemini代理,“是因为它们对安全性、治理和控制的要求最高。”他说,公司将在今年晚些时候将这一经验带给消费者,首先从其Gemini应用的10亿用户开始。
Chief Executive Sundar Pichai nodded to that dynamic on Wednesday, saying on a call with analysts that the company rolled out a Gemini agent to companies first “because they have the highest bar for security, governance and controls.”The company would bring that experience to consumers later this year, he said, starting with the billion users of its Gemini app.
云计算增长和谷歌的人工智能芯片——Anthropic正花费数十亿美元购买这些芯片——近来一直在推动其盈利。随着云收入飙升,该公司第三季度的营业利润率扩大至32%,这表明大规模人工智能投资并未侵蚀核心盈利能力。
Cloud-computing growth and Google’s AI chips, which Anthropic is spending billions of dollars on, have been driving its earnings lately. The company’s operating margins expanded in the third quarter to 32% as cloud revenue skyrocketed, suggesting big AI investments aren’t eroding core profitability.
另一方面,不断上升的折旧费用——主要来自计算设备——在第三季度总计84亿美元,同比增长49%——对利润率构成了一定拖累。而且该公司的高额支出很可能使其在一段时间内自由现金流为负。
On the other hand, rising depreciation charges, largely on computing equipment—they totaled $8.4 billion in the third quarter, up 49% from a year earlier—are something of a drag on margins. And the company’s heavy spending is likely to leave it free-cash-flow negative for some time.
但其他公司也将如此。而在人工智能时代的这一阶段,很少有公司比Alphabet准备得更充分——市场并未完全反映这一地位。
But that will be true for others, too. And few are better-prepared for this stage of the AI era than Alphabet—a position that markets aren’t fully reflecting.