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进步派在佛罗里达中部看到了什么——着眼中期选举及之后What progressives see in Central Florida — for the midterms and beyond

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奥兰多——周三,佛罗里达州众议员安吉·尼克松站在中佛罗里达大学的雨中,环视聚集在她面前的约100名学生。

ORLANDO — Standing in the rain at the University of Central Florida on Wednesday, state Rep. Angie Nixon surveyed the roughly 100 students gathered in front of her.

“我只是看着你们。阿什利·穆迪永远做不到这一点,”她站在美国国旗下,指着美国参议员选举中的共和党对手说道。“你们如此多元。你们如此丰富多彩。这就是美国的样子。”此次停留让学生们直接跟随她前往投票站投票。这是尼克松——她拥有工会和社区组织背景——在佛罗里达州中部动员基本盘的最新举措,在该州共和党注册选民比民主党多出150万的背景下显得尤为重要。

“I'm just looking at y'all. Ashley Moody could never,” she said of her Republican opponent in the U.S. Senate race, while standing under the American flag. “Y'all so diverse. Y'all so colorful. And this is what America looks like.”The stop had students follow her directly to the polls to vote. It was the latest push from Nixon — who has a background in union and community organizing — to turn out the base in Central Florida in a state where Republicans have outregistered Democrats by 1.5 million voters.

奥兰多都会区(包括奥兰治县和奥西奥拉县)不仅对佛罗里达州民主党赢得全州性选举至关重要:它还成为了全国进步派人士和潜在的2028年民主党总统候选人造访的中心。

And the Orlando metro area, that includes Orange and Osceola counties, isn’t simply crucial for any chance of Florida Democrats garnering a statewide win: It has also become an epicenter for visits from national progressive figures and potential Democratic 2028 candidates.

周二晚,尼克松在附近的基西米举行的“波多黎各人支持安吉”集会上,与来自纽约的进步派众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯共同助选,旨在吸引通常支持民主党的波多黎各裔选民。

On Tuesday night, Nixon rallied alongside progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York at a “Boricuas for Angie” rally in nearby Kissimmee, focused on appealing to Puerto Rican voters who’ve generally favored Democrats.

“这是佛罗里达州民主党可以大幅拉开票差、帮助全州候选人当选的地区,”来自奥兰多的民主党州参议员卡洛斯·吉列尔莫·史密斯(Carlos Guillermo Smith)说。“我们不仅拥有外围地区那些至关重要的选民——尤其是奥西奥拉县的拉美裔和波多黎各裔选民——而且在奥兰治县等地也有大量民主党选民需要出来投票,他们才能获胜。”

“This is the area of Florida where Democrats can blow out the margins and help elect a statewide candidate,” Democratic state Sen. Carlos Guillermo Smith of Orlando said. “Not only do we have voters on the outskirts that are so important — especially Latinos and Puerto Ricans in Osceola County — but you also have the quantity of Democratic voters in places like Orange County that need to turn out in order for them to win.”

该地区拥有波多黎各以外第二多的波多黎各裔人口。尼克松指望动员他们以及进步派和年轻选民,在倾向共和党的佛罗里达州这场劣势明显的竞选中创造奇迹。这是一种可能奏效的策略,因为共和党的邮寄投票和提前投票数据似乎落后于近几个周期,而参议院竞选中的候选人似乎相差个位数。但尼克松的进步派观点也可能限制她对其他西班牙裔选民的吸引力,这些选民主要来自古巴和委内瑞拉,大多居住在南佛罗里达,对社会主义和共产主义持有根深蒂固的负面看法并有切身经历。

The region has the second-highest number of Puerto Ricans outside Puerto Rico. Nixon is banking on turning them out as well as progressive and young voters in her underdog race to try to beat the odds in red-leaning Florida. It’s a strategy that could be potent as Republicans’ vote-by-mail and early voting stats appear to be falling behind recent cycles, and the candidates in the Senate race appear to be within single digits of each other. But Nixon’s progressive views could also limit her appeal to other Hispanic voters from Cuba and Venezuela, who largely live in South Florida and have deeply negative views and experiences with socialism and communism.

尽管如此,位于传奇般的I-4走廊沿线的中佛罗里达部分地区,拥有大量波多黎各裔选民,且有作为民主党大本营的历史,是他们赢得全州选举的关键地区。奥卡西奥-科尔特斯曾承认权衡2028年竞选总统的可能性,她本人也有波多黎各血统,周二晚在奥西奥拉传承公园对1500名观众表示,中佛罗里达将“决定佛罗里达的未来,进而决定这个国家的未来”。

Still, parts of Central Florida along the storied I-4 corridor, with its high number of Puerto Rican voters and history as a Democratic stronghold, is a critical area for them to win statewide. Ocasio-Cortez, who acknowledged weighing a bid for president in 2028 and is herself of Puerto Rican descent, told the 1,500-person crowd at Osceola Heritage Park on Tuesday night that Central Florida would be “deciding the future of Florida and, consequently, this country.”

她与尼克松同台亮相,标志着自尼克松8月在初选中爆冷击败建制派宠儿、退役中校亚历山大·温德曼(Alexander Vindman)以来,奥卡西奥-科尔特斯第二次来到佛罗里达州。另一位潜在的2028年总统候选人、来自加利福尼亚州的民主党众议员罗·康纳(Ro Khanna)于10月20日陪同尼克松造访了中央佛罗里达大学(UCF),而来自佛蒙特州的独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)在几天前也曾在校园为她举办集会。

Her appearance with Nixon marks the second time she has come to Florida since Nixon staged an upset primary victory in August against establishment favorite retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman. Another potential 2028 presidential candidate, Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California, visited UCF with Nixon on Oct. 20, and independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders rallied with her on campus a couple days earlier.

周二晚间演讲期间,尼克松将关注点引向波多黎各作为美国领土的“不公平”地位,其中包括航运限制、基础设施老化以及对海滩私人开发的担忧。她呼吁到场民众不仅要投票,还要为她敲门拉票,帮助让更多人走向投票站。

During her speech Tuesday night, Nixon brought attention to Puerto Rico’s “unfair” status as a U.S. territory, including shipping restrictions, aging infrastructure and concerns about private development on beaches. She asked the crowd gathered not just to vote but knock on doors for her to help get more people to the polls.

“无论你们的家族在佛罗里达生活了几代,还是你们从别处来到这里寻找更好的机会和未来,你们都不应只配拥有一种每个月都要为生计奔波挣扎的生活,”她说。“你们理应过上更好的日子。你们理应繁荣昌盛、蓬勃发展。” 尼克松和许多其他民主党人一样,一直在努力争取佛罗里达州西班牙裔选民的支持,这是一个有影响力、多元化的投票群体,人数近260万。

“Whether your family has been in Florida for generations, or you came here from somewhere looking for a better opportunity and a better future, you deserve more than a life where every single month is a struggle to get by,” she said. “You deserve to get ahead. You deserve to thrive and to flourish.”Nixon, like many other Democrats, has been working to appeal to Hispanic voters across Florida, an influential, diverse voting bloc of nearly 2.6 million people.

佛罗里达州和其他州的民调显示,唐纳德·特朗普总统拉拢入其联盟的拉美裔选民中共和党的渗透势头——包括一些因2024年大选时的经济担忧而转向右翼的佛罗里达波多黎各裔选民——现在正朝相反方向发展。

And polling from Florida and other states indicates that GOP inroads among Latino voters that President Donald Trump brought into his coalition — including some Puerto Ricans in Florida who swung right amid economic concerns in the 2024 election — are now trending in the opposite direction.

佛罗里达州民主党联邦众议员马克斯韦尔·弗罗斯特是尼克松的早期支持者,他指出自己位于佛罗里达中部的选区是该州种族和宗教最多元化的地区之一,他说,该地区的民主党民选官员致力于“建立广泛联盟”,并指出尼克松的活动不仅有她本人,还有民主党团体以及其他竞选地方和州议会席位的候选人参加。“我们大家一起组织动员,”他说。

Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost of Florida, an early backer of Nixon who noted his Central Florida district is among the most racially and religiously diverse parts of the state, said Democrats in office from the region worked to “build a broad coalition,” noting Nixon’s events included not just her but Democratic groups and other candidates running locally and for the state Legislature. “We all organize together,” he said.

尽管盟友们对尼克松在佛罗里达中部的前景充满信心,但她仍面临逆风,尤其是来自古巴裔和委内瑞拉裔选民的逆风——这一侨民群体主要集中在南佛罗里达——鉴于她与美国民主社会主义者组织的关联,该组织她于6月加入,但尚未背书支持她。

Yet even as allies are confident about Nixon’s prospects in Central Florida, she faces headwinds, especially with voters of Cuban and Venezuelan descent — a diaspora largely centered in South Florida — given her associations with the Democratic Socialists of America, a group she joined in June but that hasn’t endorsed her.

自从在初选中爆冷获胜以来,尼克松一直费心解释她与美国民主社会主义者组织(DSA)的分歧所在,并致力于提出佛罗里达州西班牙裔选民面临的其他担忧——包括高昂的生活成本、古巴人被创纪录地驱逐至第三国,以及特朗普政府终止对委内瑞拉工人的保护。她曾在移民与海关执法局(ICE)拘留中心外举行新闻发布会,并频繁提及佛罗里达州在大沼泽地建立、现已废弃的“短吻鳄阿尔卡特拉兹”帐篷移民设施。

Nixon has taken pains since her upset primary victory to explain where she splits with DSA, and has worked to raise other concerns Hispanic voters in Florida face — including high costs, record deportations of Cubans being sent to third-country destinations and the Trump administration's ending of protections for workers from Venezuela. She has held press conferences outside ICE detention centers and frequently raises the now-defunct Alligator Alcatraz tented immigration facility Florida built in the Everglades.

但她本周在哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS News)节目中的言论,却被许多民主党人视为一次不必要的失误。当被问及古巴是否为独裁国家时,尼克松回答:“那是人们告诉我的。我从未去过古巴,所以我只能听他们的。”尼克松后来对哥伦比亚广播公司在社交媒体上将她的这番话解读为她回避回答问题表示异议,称她的本意是说她曾与古巴人交谈过他们的经历——并且她相信他们。哥伦比亚广播公司删除了该帖子,并附带编辑说明重新发布。

But she also made comments on CBS News this week that many Democrats saw as an unforced error. When asked whether Cuba was a dictatorship, Nixon responded with: “That is what people have told me. I have never been to Cuba, and so I will have to take their word for it.”Nixon later took issue with the way CBS News framed her quote on social media as her avoiding answering the question, saying that she meant to say she had spoken to Cubans about their experiences — and that she believed them. CBS removed the post and reissued it with an editor’s note.

尼克松在另一条帖子中进一步巩固了自己的立场,称古巴是“威权政权”。在周二晚于基西米举行的集会上,她又将古巴描述为“一个失败的制度,一个独裁政权”。

Nixon further solidified her position in another post calling Cuba an “authoritarian regime.”And during her Kissimmee rally Tuesday night, she described Cuba as “a failed system, a dictatorship.”

共和党人乃至许多民主党人都认为,尼克松本应直接对哥伦比亚广播公司的提问回答“是”,尽管她在其他采访中确实这样做了。“它一直处于共产主义独裁统治之下,”共和党州长候选人、众议员拜伦·唐纳兹周三在布鲁克斯维尔的一次竞选活动中说,而共和党人一直试图将所有民主党人与极左翼挂钩。“这甚至无需争论。人人都知道这一点,但她就是不肯说出明摆着的事实。”

Republicans and even many Democrats contended Nixon should have just answered yes to the question from CBS, even as she did so in other interviews. “It's been under a communist dictatorship,” GOP gubernatorial candidate Rep. Byron Donalds said during a campaign stop in Brooksville on Wednesday, as Republicans have been trying to tie all Democrats to the far left. “This is not even up for debate. Everybody knows this, but she couldn't say the plain truth."

在佛罗里达州更南边的迈阿密-戴德县,共和党计划放大尼克松的言论,将视频用西班牙语配音,并于周四通过短信向古巴裔美国选民群发。“圣诞礼物来晚了,但不算太晚,”迈阿密-戴德县共和党主席凯文·库珀说。

Farther south in Florida, the Miami-Dade GOP plans to amplify Nixon’s comments by dubbing over the video in Spanish and blasting it out over text message to Cuban-American voters Thursday. “Christmas came late, but not too late,” said Miami-Dade GOP Chair Kevin Cooper.

穆迪经常批评尼克松的立场,但她自己的观点却守口如瓶。她一直回避媒体的尖锐采访,包括她在哪些问题上与特朗普政府涉及拉丁裔的移民政策存在分歧,或者她是否在推动特朗普政府在古巴采取行动。

Moody frequently criticizes Nixon’s positions, but her own views are tightly guarded. She has avoided tough interviews from the press that include questions about where she splits with the Trump administration’s immigration policies involving Latinos, or whether she’s pushing the Trump administration to take action in Cuba.

去年德桑蒂斯任命她填补国务卿马尔科·卢比奥留下的席位时,他说他选择她的部分原因是她不会在非法移民问题上“软弱”。虽然与共和党参议员里克·斯科特相比,她在迈阿密的竞选活动并不频繁,但她定于周四与共和党州长候选人团队一起参加在迈阿密-戴德地区古巴裔聚居的海厄利亚举行的一场集会。

When DeSantis appointed her to the seat last year to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he said he picked her in part because she wouldn’t be a “squish” on illegal immigration. While she has infrequently campaigned in Miami compared to GOP Sen. Rick Scott, she is scheduled to attend a rally in Cuban-heavy Hialeah in the Miami-Dade area with the GOP gubernatorial ticket Thursday.

奥卡西奥-科尔特斯为尼克松辩护,回击共和党因其进步观点而发起的部分抨击,并试图将话题转向共和党,指责特朗普政府“用黄金装点白宫”,实施大规模驱逐,以及“在普通劳动者挨饿时搞腐败交易”。

Ocasio-Cortez defended Nixon against some of the GOP backlash over her progressive views and aimed to flip the script toward Republicans, accusing the Trump administration of “lining the White House with gold,” engaging in mass deportations and “dealing in corruption while everyday working people starve.”

“优质学校不是共产主义,”她说。“资助医院不是共产主义。保障医疗保健作为每个美国人的权利也不是共产主义。这是常识。”

“Good schools is not communism,” she said. “Funding hospitals is not communism. And guaranteeing health care as a right to every American is not communism. It's common sense.”

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