《卫报》气候编辑部 水位正在迅速上涨，已淹至卡尼·阿里的腰部。她的家距离索马里南部泛滥的朱巴河仅五米，根本无法幸免。她无处可去。这位六个孩子的母亲说，阿里所在的吉利卜市正遭受袭击，反复的空袭将民众钉在涨水的河边。
the Guardian Climate Desk The water was rising rapidly. It had already reached Cayni Ali’s waist. Her home, five meters from the flooded River Juba in southern Somalia, never stood a chance. There was nowhere to go. Ali’s city of Jilib was under attack. Repeated airstrikes, said the mother of six, were pinning its population beside the rising river.
“无人机一直在来，”这位27岁的妇女说，“我们一直能听到它们的声音。它们杀牲畜，杀平民。城镇很大，但到处都是破坏。”
“The drones come all the time,” said the 27-year-old. “We hear them constantly. They kill animals, civilians. The town is big but destruction is everywhere.”
来自吉利卜附近马伦达村的阿绍·奥马尔描述说，“持续不断”的空袭迫使人们向朱巴河岸边聚集。“到处都是空袭，难以移动。这么多人被杀。”他们的证词难得地展现了“青年党”这一控制索马里30%领土的伊斯兰武装组织大本营内部的生活。由于与外界隔绝，居民描述了一座正在承受大量平民伤亡的城市。据称，尸体就躺在街道上。
Asho Omar from Malenda, a village near Jilib, described “constant” airstrikes that had forced people towards the banks of the Juba. “The airstrikes are everywhere; it is difficult to move. So many people have been killed.”Their testimony offers a rare glimpse of life inside the stronghold of al-Shabaab, the Islamist militants who control 30 percent of Somalia. Closed off from the outside world, residents describe a city dealing with significant civilian casualties. Bodies, some said, lay in the streets.
这场正在进行的冲突是一场由美国在东非协调的、法律地位模糊、隐蔽的战争，其中对索马里平民伤害几乎没有任何问责。
The ongoing conflict is a legally ambiguous, shadowy war coordinated by the United States in East Africa, in which there is little accountability for harm to Somali civilians.
美国非洲司令部（Africom）拒绝分享一场似乎正在加速的军事行动的“作战安全”细节，该行动也引发了关于潜在美国秘密空袭的质疑。但针对“青年党”实际首都的这场攻势，或许还有更黑暗的一面。
The United States Africa Command (Africom) would not share “operational security” details of a seemingly accelerating campaign that has also raised questions over potential covert US strikes. But there is, perhaps, an even darker dimension to the offensive on al-Shabaab’s de facto capital.
消息人士称，军事战略似乎旨在通过“武器化”一个迅速增强的厄尔尼诺现象，淹死生活在“青年党”控制区的人们，预计厄尔尼诺将从本月开始加剧索马里的雨季。
Sources say the military strategy appears to be seeking to drown those living in al-Shabaab territory by “weaponizing” a rapidly strengthening El Niño, forecast to intensify Somalia’s rainy season from this month.
“空袭迫使人们靠近河边。这是一场极其激进的攻势，利用厄尔尼诺作为战争武器，将民众推向易受洪水影响的地区，”一位监测索马里南部朱巴河泛滥平原的消息人士说。
“The airstrikes are forcing people to go close to the river. It’s an extremely aggressive offensive, exploiting El Niño as a weapon of war to push the population into flood-prone areas,” said a source monitoring the Juba floodplain in southern Somalia.
将人口——其中包括大量妇女和儿童——钉在河流泛滥平原上，引发了人们对未来几个月可能出现大规模死亡的担忧。“官方说法是他们针对的是军事阵地和‘青年党’，但由于‘青年党’嵌入在社区之中，很难避免附带损害，”上述消息人士补充道。
Pinning the population—which includes large numbers of women and children – on the river’s floodplain has raised concerns of large-scale deaths in the months ahead. “The official line is that they are targeting military positions and al-Shabaab, but because al-Shabaab is embedded within the community, it’s difficult to avoid collateral damage,” added the source.
上一次厄尔尼诺现象袭击索马里是在2023年，它导致该国百年来最严重的洪水，造成120多万人流离失所。分析人士质疑美军据称利用易发洪水地区的测绘数据——这些数据原本旨在减少平民伤亡——来造成伤害的伦理性。
When El Niño last struck Somalia in 2023, it caused the worst floods seen in the country for a century, displacing more than 1.2 million people. Analysts have questioned the ethics of the US military allegedly using mapping data from flood-prone areas—conceived to mitigate civilian casualties—to inflict harm.
丹麦国际研究所高级研究员杰思罗·诺曼表示：“将厄尔尼诺现象武器化是一个过程的逆转——利用人道主义遥感技术造成伤亡，而不是减轻危害。你捕捉到了在厄尔尼诺洪水背景下持续空袭行动的累积影响。”
Jethro Norman, a senior researcher with the Danish Institute for International Studies, said: “A weaponisation of El Niño is a reversal of process—using humanitarian remote sensing to inflict casualties rather than to mitigate harm. You capture the cumulative impact of a sustained airstrikes campaign in an El Niño flooding context.”
美国官方否认利用气候因素。一名发言人表示：“非洲司令部不以平民为目标，不为驱逐平民而开展行动，也不将天气或洪水作为一种战争手段。非洲司令部针对合法军事目标，并采取切实可行的措施减轻平民伤害。” 尽管如此，许多人仍在猜测，利用天气削弱“青年党”的机会是否过于诱人而无法抗拒，从而导致一场归咎于超强厄尔尼诺现象的灾难性溺亡事件。
US officials deny exploiting climatic factors. A spokesperson said: “Africom does not target civilians, conduct operations for the purpose of displacing civilian populations, or use weather or flooding as a method of warfare. Africom targets lawful military objectives and takes feasible measures to mitigate civilian harm.”Nevertheless, many wonder if the opportunity to weaken al-Shabaab using the weather was too tempting to ignore, offering a catastrophic drowning event blamed on a supercharged El Niño.
与许多城市一样，吉利卜的地理位置在极端天气时代显得捉襟见肘。这座城市位于低洼平原，长期面临洪水威胁。2023年，大片农田被淹没。来自吉利卜以南的坎苏马的哈利莫·阿卜迪卡迪尔描述了她家园的毁灭，她家距离河流6英里（10公里）。“水在夜里迅速涌来——退去后，到处都是泥。许多牲畜淹死了。”来自吉利卜外另一个村庄艾哈迈德·亚雷的阿尔贝·法穆预计，这次厄尔尼诺现象将比2023年严重得多：她的玉米和高粱地都在水下。“吉利卜已经发生大洪水了，”这位70岁老人说。
Like many cities, Jilib’s location has been found wanting in an era of extreme weather. On a low-lying plain, the city is chronically vulnerable to flooding. In 2023, vast swathes of farmland were submerged. Halimo Abdikadir from Kamsuuma, south of Jillib, described the destruction of her home, 6 miles (10km) from the river. “The waters came quickly at night—when they left, everything was mud. A lot of animals drowned.”Arbey Famu from Ahmed Yare, another village outside Jilib, expects this El Niño to be far worse than 2023: Her crops of maize and sorghum are underwater. “In Jilib, there is big flooding already,” said the 70-year-old.
美国国防官员将知晓厄尔尼诺现象在青年党核心腹地影响的早期迹象。联合国机构称朱巴河流域“令人特别担忧”。与此同时，国际红十字委员会（ICRC）预测将出现“严重洪水”。使用地面部队进攻吉利卜风险极大。空袭虽能取得斩杀青年党高级指挥官等战果——如10月1日的行动——却无法攻占一座拥有10万人口的城市。
US defense officials will know the early indicators of El Niño’s impact in al-Shabaab’s heartland. UN agencies say the Juba River basin is of “particular concern.”The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), meanwhile, foresees “severe flooding.”Attacking Jilib using ground forces carries much risk. Airstrikes can yield triumphs such as the death of a senior al-Shabaab commander on October 1, but are unable to overrun a city of 100,000.
朱巴兰境内流离失所者事务专员阿里·阿丹·阿里深感忧虑。在基斯马尤的办公室里，阿里指出了327个易发洪水区域。到10月，厄尔尼诺预警仅覆盖了其中一半。
Ali Adan Ali, the commissioner for displaced people in Jubaland, is worried. In his Kismayo office, Ali identified 327 regions prone to flooding. By October, El Niño warnings had only been issued to half.
他最担心的是缺乏船只。他说，没有船只，青年党控制区内数千人将面临被困在河流东岸、无法抵达朱巴河口的基斯马尤寻求救助的风险。
His chief concern is the lack of boats. Without them, he says, thousands in al-Shabaab territory risk being trapped on the east side of the river, unable to reach help in Kismayo, at the mouth of the Juba.
三年前，上一次厄尔尼诺期间，阿里说，有1.9万人被困一周无粮可吃。“我们时间不多了，”他说。
Three years ago, during the last El Niño, Ali says, 19,000 people were stranded for a week without food. “We are running out of time,” he says.
船只的匮乏折射出索马里的资金困境。2023年，该国援助预算为22亿美元。如今仅剩约30万美元。防洪投资大幅缩减。
The absence of boats sums up Somalia’s funding woes. In 2023, the country’s aid budget was $2.2 billion. Now it stands at about $300,000. Flood protection investment has dwindled.
加剧担忧的是，青年党在其控制地区缺乏应对准备。阿里尚未收到武装分子关于厄尔尼诺现象应对的回复。凯尼·阿里表示，吉利卜尚未部署沙袋或防洪设施。河岸沿线筑起了土墙，但已被证明不足。
Compounding concerns is al-Shabaab’s lack of preparedness in the area it controls. Ali has not received a response from the militants regarding El Niño readiness. Cayni Ali said there are no sandbags or flood defenses deployed yet in Jilib. Earth walls were erected along the river but have proved insufficient.
“它们不够大，”她说。关于朱巴河的最新洪水预警敦促社区“加固”薄弱的河岸。
“They are not big enough,” she said. The latest flood advisory for the River Juba urges communities to “reinforce” weak riverbanks.
多份证词相互印证，描述了一场针对青年党的持续且看似不分青红皂白的空袭行动，该行动似乎已造成许多平民死亡。美国表示，为“保护美军及合作伙伴部队并维护作战安全”，不会分享潜在平民伤亡的细节。法尔汉·艾哈迈德上个月逃离吉利卜前一直居住在那里，他描述了持续的恐惧。“每天都有空袭，时不停歇。”一次空袭夷平了他社区的五栋房屋。35岁的艾哈迈德描述说，城市街道上尸体横陈。
Corroborating testimonies describe a prolonged—and seemingly indiscriminate—campaign of airstrikes against al-Shabaab that appears to have killed many civilians. The US would not share details of potential civilian fatalities “to protect US and partner forces and preserve operational security.”Farhan Ahmed, who lived in Jilib until fleeing last month, described constant terror. “There were airstrikes every day, all the time.”One strike flattened five homes in his neighbourhood. Ahmed, 35, described bodies littering the city streets.
法杜莫·阿卜迪声称，空袭大多未能打击武装分子。“袭击大多杀死平民。有些人被埋葬了，但有些人没有，”她说。
Fadumo Abdi claimed the airstrikes were largely failing to target militants. “The attacks are mostly killing civilians. Some were buried, but some were not,” she said.
来自卡姆苏马的阿卜迪卡迪尔补充道：“对吉利卜的无人机袭击太过分了。太多人丧生了。”
Abdikadir, from Kamsuuma, added: “The drone attacks on Jilib are too much. So many people die.”
27岁的优素福·西迪来自贾马梅附近的阿拉雷，该地区处于青年党控制之下，他目睹了一次空袭中三名青少年丧生。玛丽安·萨拉赫在贾马梅附近家中时，一架无人机发射的一块长约8英寸的燃烧金属碎片落入她家后院，落在她两岁女儿旁边：“太近了。我很生气。我不是冲突的一部分。”萨拉赫的这次险情发生在当前攻势之前。她只记得发生在“3月中旬”。美国承认3月19日在贾马梅附近发生了一次无人机袭击，但未提供其他数据。
Yusuf Siidi, 27, from Araare near Jamame in al-Shabaab territory, witnessed three teenagers killed in one strike. Maryan Salah was at home near Jamame when a drone sent a shard of burning metal about 8 inches long into her backyard, landing next to her two-year-old daughter: “It was so close. I am very angry. I’m not part of the conflict.”Salah’s near miss predates the current offensive. She can recall only that it happened in “mid-March.”The US admits a drone strike near Jamame on March 19, but no other data is provided.
尽管目击者的描述显示吉利布遭受了异常多的袭击，但美国官方记录证实，八月份吉利布仅发生过一次空袭。上个月发生了六次。美国表示，从八月初至今，其总共仅进行了11次袭击。
Although eyewitness accounts detail an extraordinary number of strikes in Jilib, official US records confirm only one airstrike in Jilib during August. Six took place last month. Between the start of August and now, the US says it conducted a total of just 11 strikes.
模糊性指控越来越多地成为美国在索马里行动的特征。这种不透明的做法引发了关于非洲司令部是否在该地区授权了秘密空袭的疑问。
Allegations of ambiguity increasingly characterise US operations in Somalia. It is an opaque approach that raises questions over whether Africom has authorised covert airstrikes in the region.
最近一家医院的记录显示，空袭或战斗十分激烈。红十字国际委员会今年在基斯马尤治疗了205名“武器相关”伤员，比去年增加了43%。
Records from the nearest hospital indicate intensive airstrikes or fighting. The ICRC has treated 205 patients with “weapon-related” injuries in Kismayo this year, a 43 percent increase on last year.
新美国智库分析师大卫·斯特曼说：“当存在无法明确归因的袭击时，我们可能正在目睹美国秘密袭击的可能性始终挥之不去。”
David Sterman, analyst at the New America think tank, said: “The possibility that we are seeing covert US strikes always looms large when there are strikes without clear attribution.”
然而，美国表示，其公布了“在其授权下在索马里进行的所有空袭。我们不保留未披露或未公布的袭击计数。”土耳其也使用无人机在索马里针对青年党。土耳其与非洲司令部协同作战，很少透露其在索马里的袭击或军事行动的任何细节。
The US, however, said it publicized “all airstrikes conducted under its authority in Somalia. We do not maintain an undisclosed or unannounced strike count.”Turkey has also used drones to target al-Shabaab in Somalia. Operating alongside Africom, Turkey rarely divulges any details of its strikes or military operations in Somalia.
除了空袭和洪水，索马里人最关心的是饥饿。那些逃离朱巴河谷的人——当地当局正在为逃离者提供人道主义援助——表示，没有足够的食物来维持生计。
Beyond airstrikes and floods, the primary concern for Somalis is hunger. Those fleeing the Juba valley—local authorities are offering humanitarian help to those who escape—say there is insufficient food to sustain them.
奥马尔一家13口人每天只靠一条鱼度日。这条鱼有多大？奥马尔双手张开的距离不到12英寸。
Omar’s family of 13 survives on one fish a day. How big is the fish? Omar held her hands less than 12 inches apart.
来自贾马梅的55岁哈比巴·阿里说，她的家人——和许多人一样——每天共享一顿玉米饭。其余时间都在躲避冲突。“战斗停止时，我们等着它再次开始。”在基斯马尤，长期干旱和美国国际开发署的削减也带来了苦难。
Habiba Ali, 55, from Jamame, said her family—like many—shares one daily meal of maize. Time in between is spent hiding from conflict. “When the fighting stops, we wait for it start again.”In Kismayo, too, long-term drought and USAID cuts have brought misery.
加勒比德难民营负责人、32岁的舒克里·艾哈迈德估计，自特朗普政府去年突然关闭美国国际开发署（USAID）以来，基斯马尤的流离失所者营地网络中可能已有6000人死亡。仅在一夜之间，两名儿童就在临时收容所因腹泻去世。
Shukri Ahmed, 32, the president of Galbeed refugee camp, estimates that 6,000 might have died in Kismayo’s network of displacement sites since the Trump administration abruptly shut USAID last year. Overnight, two children had died in makeshift shelters from diarrhoea.
联合国支持的、负责认定饥荒的机构警告称，厄尔尼诺现象将“加深[索马里的]饥饿程度”。
El Niño will “deepen [Somalia’s] hunger levels,” warns the UN-backed body responsible for identifying famine.
在基斯马尤这家由红十字国际委员会（ICRC）支持的医院工作了五年的护士长扎卡里亚·穆罕默德表示，来自青年党控制区的儿童每天都会被送来，他们营养不良或虚弱到无法挽救的地步。今年儿童营养不良病例率上升了40%。
Zakaria Mohammed, head nurse at Kismayo’s ICRC-supported hospital for five years, says children from al-Shabaab territory arrive every day so severely malnourished or weak they cannot be saved. Cases of child malnutrition rates have risen 40 percent this year.
哈沃·纳克多尔及时赶到了医院。青年党曾阻止她离开贾马梅，以便给婴儿接受治疗。但她14个月大的女儿法杜莫命悬一线，纳克多尔只得在夜间逃离。
Xaawo Nacdoor made it just in time. Al-Shabaab had blocked her leaving Jamame to receive treatment for her baby. But her 14-month-old daughter Faadumo was dying, so Nacdoor fled at night.
仅带着一瓶水，纳克多尔背着女儿走了三天。第二天，幼儿失去了意识。
For three days, with just a bottle of water, Nacdoor walked with her daughter strapped to her back. On the second day, the toddler lost consciousness.
“她严重脱水，但我坚持走了下去。”到达医院时，法杜莫体重仅9磅（约4.1公斤）。三天后：10磅（约4.5公斤）。她活了下来。
“She was severely dehydrated, but I kept going.”Arriving at the hospital, Faadumo weighed 9 pounds. Three days later: 10 pounds. She survived.
此处大多数患者发誓绝不返回家乡，称在青年党统治下意味着没有学校、没有教育、没有医疗、没有食物。对于成千上万横跨朱巴河两岸的家庭——往往是最贫困的人群——情况即将变得更糟。
Most patients here vow never to return home, saying life under al-Shabaab meant no school, education, healthcare, or food. For the thousands of families straddling the Juba River—often the poorest—things are about to get much worse.