让拉丁美洲各国领导人齐聚一堂已属不易，让他们在任何问题上达成一致更是难上加难。两年前在厄瓜多尔举行的伊比利亚美洲峰会上，该地区只有一位总统出席——而且还是东道主。伊比利亚美洲峰会是西班牙、葡萄牙和拉美国家领导人每两年一次的聚会。今年11月4日至5日，西班牙将在马德里主办这一峰会，人们希望西班牙能做得更好。主办方力争让多达18位国家元首或其副手出席。
Getting Latin American leaders into one room is a feat. Getting them to agree on anything is tougher still. Only one president from the region turned up to the Ibero-American summit, a biennial gathering of leaders from Spain, Portugal and Latin America, when it was held in Ecuador two years ago—and that was the host. There are hopes Spain will do better when it holds this year’s pow-wow, in Madrid, on November 4th and 5th. The organisers are aspiring to get as many as 18 heads of state, or their deputies, to attend.
时机是有利的。唐纳德·特朗普越来越把拉丁美洲视为美国的后院。尽管一批表面上与特朗普立场一致的总统已经上台，该地区仍急于通过贸易多元化来对冲他的不可预测性。与中国的关系很重要，但也存在问题。“我从未见过（拉美）对欧洲有如此强烈的渴望，”一位资深的拉美外交官说。
The timing is propitious. Donald Trump increasingly treats Latin America as the United States’ backyard. Though a wave of ostensibly Trump-aligned presidents have taken office, the region remains keen to hedge against his unpredictability by diversifying trade. Links with China are important, but also problematic. “I’ve never seen more desire for Europe,” says a veteran Latin American diplomat.
西班牙与该地区的关系是世界上两个超级大国都无法复制的。超过400万出生在拉丁美洲的人现在生活在西班牙，其中许多人是在过去十年间到来的。早在20世纪80年代和90年代，西班牙向民主的转型就成为其一些前殖民地的榜样。1982年至1996年担任首相的费利佩·冈萨雷斯后来成为该地区一些政府的顾问。1991年，西班牙和墨西哥在瓜达拉哈拉召开了第一届伊比利亚美洲峰会，为一个由22个成员组成的共同体奠定了基础，其灵感大致来自由曾受英国统治的国家组成的英联邦。
Spain has ties to the region that neither of the world’s superpowers can replicate. More than 4m people who were born in Latin America now live in Spain, many having arrived in the past decade. Back in the 1980s and 1990s Spain’s transition to democracy was a model for some of its former colonies. Felipe González, prime minister from 1982 to 1996, became an adviser to governments in the region. In 1991 Spain and Mexico convened the first Ibero-American summit in Guadalajara, laying foundations for a 22-member community loosely inspired by the Commonwealth of once British-ruled countries.
此后，西班牙的影响力有所减弱。西班牙企业仍然是该地区重要的投资者。但随着拉丁美洲加强与中国的联系，它们已经有所退缩。一些外交官抱怨说，西班牙政府的兴趣已经减弱。现任首相佩德罗·桑切斯希望改善现状。桑切斯已宣布将于11月29日举行大选。
Spain’s influence has since waned. Spanish companies remain important investors in the region. But they have stepped back even as Latin America has strengthened ties with China. Some diplomats complain that Spanish governments have grown less interested. The current prime minister, Pedro Sánchez—who has called a general election for November 29th—wants to improve things.
但这需要改变做法。桑切斯与左翼政府相处最为融洽，与右翼领导人的关系则一直紧张。2024年，阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱在一次演讲中侮辱了桑切斯的妻子，西班牙随即暂时召回了驻布宜诺斯艾利斯大使。西班牙至今仍未接受哥伦比亚新总统派往马德里的大使。有议员抱怨称，这位使节在社交媒体上对桑切斯出言不逊。
That will require a change in approach. Mr Sánchez rubs along best with governments of the left. Ties with right-wing leaders have been fraught. In 2024 Spain temporarily withdrew its ambassador from Buenos Aires after Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, insulted Mr Sánchez’s wife in a speech. Spain has yet to accept the ambassador sent to Madrid by Colombia’s new president. Lawmakers complain the emissary has said rude things about Mr Sánchez on social media.
然而，即便拥有共同的世界观，也未必能保证良好关系。从纸面上看，桑切斯与墨西哥左翼总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆本应像吉事果配巧克力一样合得来。但辛鲍姆的前任兼导师安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔曾就西班牙的殖民历史挑起争端，并要求西班牙国王为征服历史道歉。西班牙外交部作出了防御性回应；2024年墨西哥未邀请西班牙国王出席辛鲍姆的就职典礼，使这场争端进一步恶化。
Yet even a shared worldview has not guaranteed good relations. On paper Mr Sánchez and Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s left-wing president, ought to get on like churros and chocolate. But Ms Sheinbaum’s predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, picked a quarrel with Spain over its colonial past and demanded an apology from its king for the conquest. Spain’s foreign ministry reacted defensively; the dispute worsened when Mexico did not invite the king to Ms Sheinbaum’s inauguration in 2024.
事实证明，辛鲍姆更愿意将历史积怨与当今利益分开处理。咨询公司Signum Global Advisors的拉斐尔·陈指出，她这样做有充分的理由。美国是墨西哥最大的贸易伙伴，但特朗普反复无常的政策制定正在松动两国关系。在经济增长乏力的情况下，辛鲍姆任由与西班牙的外交争端拖延下去，对她几乎没有好处。
Ms Sheinbaum has proved more willing to separate historical grievances from present-day interests. She has good reasons for doing so, notes Rafael Ch of Signum Global Advisors, a consultancy. The United States is Mexico’s biggest trading partner, but Mr Trump’s erratic policymaking is loosening ties. With economic growth sluggish, Ms Sheinbaum has little to gain from permitting a diplomatic quarrel with Spain to drag on.
委内瑞拉临时总统德尔西·罗德里格斯很可能出席马德里的这次会晤。罗德里格斯是在特朗普的支持下执政的，因此拉美人不太可能对她的出席大惊小怪。但这在西班牙会引发争议。反对者长期以来一直指责西班牙左翼纵容委内瑞拉的糟糕政权。如果此次峰会大声呼吁加快该国的民主转型，那将令人耳目一新——也有利于西班牙的形象。
Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s interim president, is likely to attend the meet-up in Madrid. Ms Rodríguez governs with Mr Trump’s backing, so Latin Americans are unlikely to make a fuss about her showing up. But it would be controversial in Spain. Opponents have long accused the Spanish left of indulging Venezuela’s grim regime. It would be refreshing—and good for Spain’s image—if the summit were to call loudly for the country’s democratic transition to speed up.
在马德里聚会的人员将讨论人工智能、灾害防备以及学历等教育资格的相互认可。这类议题看似低调。但其他区域性组织，如拉丁美洲和加勒比国家共同体以及美洲国家组织，正处于低谷期。因此，或许最重要的是能聚在一起开会。
Those who gather in Madrid will discuss AI, disaster preparedness and mutual recognition of educational qualifications such as degrees. That kind of stuff will seem low-key. But other regional organisations, such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and the Organisation of American States, are at a low ebb. So perhaps the most important thing is getting together at all.