美国经济分析局（BEA）周四发布的新数据显示，在8月份下降后，9月份通胀略有上升。美联储首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，上月环比上涨0.5%，同比（相较于2025年9月）上涨3.6%。劳工统计局的通胀衡量指标——消费者价格指数（CPI）报告显示，9月份同比通胀率为3.7%。克利夫兰联储预测，上月PCE通胀环比为0.5%，同比（相较于2025年9月）为3.6%。
Inflation increased slightly in September after declining in August, new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the preferred inflation metric for the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.5 percent last month and was up 3.6 percent relative to September 2025. The consumer price index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s measure of inflation, reported 3.7 percent annual inflation in September. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland projected PCE inflation for last month at 0.5 percent month over month and at 3.6 percent relative to September 2025.
根据PCE数据，年度通胀率此前曾从7月份的3.7%回落至8月份的3.4%。汽油及其他能源商品价格从8月到9月环比上涨9.2%，此前7月到8月环比上涨了4.4%。今年前九个月中有六个月汽油和能源成本上涨，因伊朗战争引发油价冲击，伊斯兰共和国限制霍尔木兹海峡航运。与此同时，食品和饮料价格连续第二个月保持稳定。
Annual inflation, according to the PCE, previously dipped from 3.7 percent in July to 3.4 percent in August. The price of gas and other energy goods rose by 9.2 percent from August to September, after increasing by 4.4 percent from July to August. Gasoline and energy costs have risen in six of nine months this year, as the Iran war sparked oil price shocks via the Islamic Republic's restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Food and beverage prices, meanwhile, held steady for the second straight month.
自2025年初以来，食品和饮料成本单月环比涨幅未超过0.5%。BEA报告称，剔除波动较大的能源和食品价格后，9月份核心通胀同比为3.1%。8月份核心通胀为3%。持续高于美联储2%目标达五年半之久的通胀，促使央行官员在9月中旬将利率上调25个基点。然而周三，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10比2投票决定，将利率维持在3.75%至4%的区间。
The cost of food and beverages has not risen by more than 0.5 percent month over month since the start of 2025. Excluding more volatile energy and food prices, annual inflation in September was 3.1 percent, the BEA reported. In August, core inflation was 3 percent. Persistent inflation, which has remained above the Fed's 2 percent target for five and a half years, spurred central bank officials to hike interest rates by a quarter point in mid-September. On Wednesday, however, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 to hold rates at a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent.
做出该决定后，美联储主席凯文·沃什表示，在FOMC 12月初下次会议召开前的几周将“提供更多清晰度”，关于委员会在货币政策方面的“适当程序”。
After that decision, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the weeks leading up to the FOMC's next meeting in early December will "provide more clarity" on the "appropriate protocol" for the committee regarding monetary policy.
沃什表示：“我们在货币政策这剂‘药方’上所做的努力，开始起到一些作用了，但还没有定论。”他指的是美联储9月份的加息举措。“如果我们对货币政策的走向有定论，今天就会大张旗鼓地宣布。”根据CME“美联储观察”工具，交易员预计美联储在12月加息25个基点的概率为83.4%。
"What we've done in this monetary medicine, it's starting to work some, but there's no firm conclusions," Warsh said, referencing the Fed's rate hike in September. "If we had a firm conclusion about the conduct of monetary policy, we'd announce it to much fanfare today." Traders are pricing in an 83.4 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said the latest data from the BEA shows the U.S. “still has an inflation problem” that is “getting worse again.”
海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·龙表示，美国经济分析局（BEA）的最新数据显示，美国“依然存在通胀问题”，且“正在再度恶化”。她在社交平台X上写道：“通胀已回升至近3年高点。这主要归因于伊朗战争，但人们合理担忧通胀正在蔓延至能源领域之外。”
She wrote on the social platform X, “Inflation is back near a 3-year high. It's largely due to war in Iran, but there's legitimate concern that inflation is spreading beyond energy.”Higher prices during the Iran war, particularly at the gas pump, pose a political problem for President Trump and the GOP in the midterms.
伊朗战争期间物价上涨，尤其是汽油价格飙升，给特朗普总统和共和党在中期选举中带来了政治难题。民主党试图利用美国民众对生活成本的不满，在特朗普任期最后两年的大部分时间里夺取国会控制权。
Democrats are attempting to capitalize on Americans’ frustrations with the cost of living to take control of Congress for the bulk of Trump’s final two years in office. The president has said that oil prices will dip once he wraps up the war, which hit the eight-month mark this week.
总统曾表示，一旦他结束这场战争，油价就会下跌；本周战争已进入第八个月。特朗普最初曾称冲突将持续不到两个月。“很快就会结束，你们的汽油价格和石油价格将大幅下跌，”特朗普上周在爱荷华州的一次竞选集会上说。两天后，他在佐治亚州的一次集会上表示，在油价冲击下，该国石油天然气行业“正在赚取数千亿美元”。更新于美国东部时间上午9:09
Trump initially said the conflict would last less than two months. “It's going to be done very soon, and your gasoline prices and your oil is going to come tumbling down,” Trump said last week at a campaign stop in Iowa. During a rally in Georgia two days later, the president said the country's oil and gas industry is “making hundreds of billions of dollars” amid the price shock. Updated at 9:09 a.m. EDT