“美国转折点”组织全力投入，力图让共和党众议员安迪·比格斯成为亚利桑那州下一任州长，这是他们本轮选举周期的首要任务。但看来他们难以如愿。
Turning Point USA has gone all-in to make GOP Rep. Andy Biggs the next governor of Arizona, their top priority of the cycle. It appears they will come up short.
比格斯是该组织创始人查理·柯克一年前遇害前亲自背书的最后一位候选人。柯克本人招募了这位长期盟友在他们家乡州参加本轮州长竞选——此后，“美国转折点”已花费1800万美元，这是他们本轮周期为任何候选人投入最多的一笔，试图挽救他的竞选。
Biggs was the last candidate Turning Point founder Charlie Kirk personally endorsed before he was killed one year ago. Kirk himself recruited the longtime ally in their home state to run for governor this cycle — and Turning Point has since spent $18 million, the most they’ve dropped for anyone this cycle, to try to salvage his campaign.
“这对他们来说是一种传承，”前众议员马特·萨蒙（共和党-亚利桑那州）说。“这是他们的告别演出。对他们来说，这有点孤注一掷。”但比格斯——强硬派众议院自由党团前主席、总统唐纳德·特朗普的亲密盟友，此前曾担任亚利桑那州参议院议长——在今年几乎所有公开民调中都落后于民主党州长凯蒂·霍布斯，其中大多数差距超出误差范围。而“美国转折点”的策略也让一些亚利桑那州共和党人感到困惑。
“It's a legacy thing for them,” said former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.). “This is their swan song. This is kind of all-or-nothing for them.”But Biggs, a former chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and close ally of President Donald Trump who previously served as Arizona Senate president, has trailed Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in virtually every public poll of the race this year, most of them outside the margin of error. And some Arizona Republicans have been baffled by Turning Point’s strategy.
根据与10位当地操盘手和官员的交谈，该组织因将最大一笔支出推迟到9月——距离选票寄出仅剩几周——而遭到州共和党内部的猛烈批评。
The group faces immense criticism from within the state GOP for delaying its biggest spending until September, just weeks before ballots were sent out, according to conversations with 10 local operatives and officials.
比格斯的竞选是柯克2025年去世以来“美国转折点行动”面临的最具高风险的政治考验，其结果将对本组织在共和党内的声誉和影响力产生重大影响。 “美国转折点”已抢先背书副总统JD·万斯竞选总统，万斯与柯克关系尤为密切。如果万斯决定参选，他可以依靠“美国转折点”在亚利桑那等摇摆州及其他地区的地面行动。
Biggs’ race is the most high-stakes political test for Turning Point Action since Kirk’s 2025 death, and the result will have major implications for the group’s reputation and relevancy within the GOP moving forward. Turning Point has already preemptively endorsed Vice President JD Vance, who was particularly close to Kirk, for president. Should Vance decide to run, he could rely on Turning Point’s ground operation in swing states like Arizona and beyond.
该组织今年完全可能表现超出预期，如果他们成功在家乡州扶助比格斯上位，这可能释放一个信号。但失败也可能对2028年产生连锁影响。
The group could well overperform this year, and if they are successful in lifting Biggs in their home state, it could send a signal. But a loss could have 2028 repercussions, too.
“如果JD·万斯打算竞选总统，我认为重新评估他可能有的任何想法——即利用‘转折点行动’作为他的实地竞选机构——将是个好主意，”亚利桑那州共和党前主席吉娜·斯沃博达说，她曾公开与该组织交锋。万斯的发言人未回应置评请求。
“If JD Vance intends to run for president, I think it would be a good idea to reevaluate any thoughts he might have about utilizing Turning Point Action as his field operation,” said Gina Swoboda, a former chair of the Arizona Republican Party who has openly sparred with the organization. A spokesperson for Vance did not respond to a request for comment.
其他共和党人，包括比格斯的竞选团队，表示感激“转折点行动”没有在共和党艰难的一年里挥动白旗投降，因为选民正因特朗普政策的影响而感到不安。
Other Republicans, including the Biggs’ campaign, said they’re grateful that Turning Point didn’t wave the white flag in a tough year for the GOP, as voters reel from the impact of Trump’s policies.
“‘转折点行动’在亚利桑那州的实地投入和广告投放都非常巨大。我们非常感激他们在极其困难的环境下挺身而出，支持安迪以及选票上上下游的共和党人，”比格斯竞选团队发言人德鲁·塞克斯顿在一份声明中说。
“Turning Point Action’s investments both on the ground and over the airwaves in Arizona have been tremendous. We are very grateful they’ve stepped up to support Andy and Republicans up and down the ballot in an extremely difficult environment,” Biggs campaign spokesperson Drew Sexton said in a statement.
“转折点行动”首席运营官泰勒·鲍耶在一份声明中说，他“对我们在亚利桑那州和其他摇摆州取得的进展感到非常自豪。”他强调，“转折点行动”是一个“以动员选民投票（GOTV）为中心的组织”，而非专注于电视广告，并将责任推给他处。
In a statement, Tyler Bowyer, chief operating officer of Turning Point Action, said he is “very proud of the strides we have made in Arizona and other swing states.”He emphasized TP Action is “a Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) centric organization” and not TV-focused, pointing the blame elsewhere.
“在竞选早期投放电视广告并支持共和党提名人，是全国性机构团体的工作，”他说。“当然，我们对更多全国性共和党资金没有匹配全国性民主党在亚利桑那州等总统选举摇摆州的支出感到失望。”虽然共和党州长协会（RGA）未介入该竞选，但民主党州长协会已花费至少1000万美元。
“It is the job of national apparatus groups to go on air early and support Republican nominees,” he said. “We of course are disappointed that more national Republican dollars are not matching the national Democrat dollars being spent on Presidential swing states like Arizona.”While the RGA has stayed out of the race, the Democratic Governors Association has spent at least $10 million.
霍布斯于2022年当选这个紫色州份的州长，她在5月推出了首支大选电视广告，而当时比格斯仍专注于7月下旬的初选。当时，“转折点行动”嘲讽霍布斯“挥霍无度”，过早启动支出。
Hobbs, who was elected to the purple state’s governorship in 2022, launched her first general election TV ad in May, while Biggs was still focused on his late July primary. At the time, Turning Point mocked Hobbs for "spending like a drunken sailor" by launching spending so early.
但现在，共和党人表示，霍布斯通过在比格斯尚未投放电视广告时尽早开支，巩固了她在竞选中的领先优势——并指责“转折点行动”以及共和党州长协会等其他共和党外部团体未能更早投入资金以保持竞选的竞争力。共和党州长协会拒绝就其不在该竞选中投入资金的决定发表评论。
But now, Republicans say that Hobbs was able to entrench her lead in the race by spending early while Biggs was dark on the airwaves — and blame Turning Point along with other GOP outside groups like the Republican Governors Association for not spending earlier to keep the race competitive. The RGA declined to comment on their decision not to spend in the race.
在亚利桑那州这样一个自1966年以来现任州长从未连任失败、且约80%的选民在选举日前就已投出选票的州，后期涌入的巨额资金不太可能改变竞选局势。
In a state like Arizona, where an incumbent governor hasn’t lost reelection since 1966 and some 80% of voters cast ballots before Election Day, a late deluge of cash is less likely to sway the race.
“如果你要花那么多钱，其中很大一部分如果在竞选早期投入会非常有帮助，当时安迪（比格斯）完全没钱，两分钱都凑不齐，而霍布斯独霸电视广告毫无回应，把安迪打得落花流水，”萨蒙说。“我们很多人都在挠头不解。” 比格斯竞选团队7月报告的手头现金仅为126万美元，而霍布斯竞选团队报告的金额是其两倍。许多前共和党州长道格·杜西的捐助者今年一直置身事外。
“If you're spending that much money, a big portion of that would've been really helpful earlier in the race when Andy was completely broke, he didn't have two nickels to rub together, and Hobbs was dominating the airwaves with no response and beating the crap out of Andy,” said Salmon.”A lot of us are scratching our heads.”Biggs’ campaign reported just $1.26 million cash on hand in July, while Hobbs’ campaign reported double that. Many donors to former GOP Gov. Doug Ducey have stayed on the sidelines this year.
一名正在参与其他亚利桑那州竞选的共和党操盘手在获准匿名以便坦诚发言的情况下表示，此时，“无论花多少钱都无法改变比格斯将会落败这一事实。”
One Republican operative working on other Arizona races, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that at this point, “No amount of spending is going to change the fact that Biggs is going to lose.”
“极有可能，全州范围的最高职位都将由民主党人夺取。而‘转折点行动’对此负有责任，”这位策略师补充道。“他们想成为关键人物，想成为主角。猜怎么着？他们真成了。” 许多当地共和党人感到沮丧，因为共和党州长协会从未在特朗普2024年赢下的这个州的头号竞选中投入一分钱。当比格斯在电视广告上早早遭受猛烈攻击时，共和党州长协会却花了近400万美元介入威斯康星州民主党初选，以助推一位最终以微弱劣势落败的民主社会主义者。
“In all likelihood, the top statewide seats are going Democrat. And Turning Point owns it,” the strategist added. “They wanted to be the player. They wanted to be the guy. Guess what? They are.”Many local Republicans are frustrated that the RGA never spent a penny on the top race in a state Trump won in 2024. While Biggs was getting hammered early on the airwaves, the RGA was spending nearly $4 million on the Wisconsin Democratic primary to boost a democratic socialist who narrowly lost.
在数个选举周期中，“转折点”组织一路力推全州候选人闯过混乱的共和党初选，结果却眼看着他们在11月大选中失利。2022年，该组织力推强硬派布莱克·马斯特斯和卡里·莱克分别作为美国参议员和州长候选人，结果两人双双落败。2024年，他们支持莱克竞选参议员；尽管特朗普以五个百分点的优势拿下亚利桑那州，莱克却以两个百分点之差落败。
For several cycles, Turning Point has muscled statewide candidates through messy Republican primaries, only to see them falter in November. In 2022, it pushed hardliners Blake Masters and Kari Lake as nominees for U.S. Senate and governor, only to see both lose. In 2024, they backed Lake’s bid for Senate; even as Trump won Arizona by five points, Lake lost by two.
一些共和党人原以为比格斯会有所不同。他在全州范围内知名度很高，并且在亚利桑那州参议院和美国众议院都有公共服务履历。比格斯告诉《亚利桑那共和报》，柯克本人亲自敦促比格斯参加州长竞选，尽管特朗普在竞选初期就已背书凤凰城律师兼女商人卡琳·泰勒·罗布森。
Biggs, some Republicans thought, would be different. He had high name ID statewide and a track record of public service for Arizona, both in the state Senate and the U.S. House. Kirk himself personally urged Biggs to enter the governor’s race, Biggs told the Arizona Republic, even though Trump had already endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson, a Phoenix attorney and businesswoman, early in the race.
比格斯于2025年1月参选后，特朗普将背书同时给了罗布森和比格斯——而“转折点”则宣告胜利。
After Biggs entered the race in January 2025, Trump split his endorsement between Robson and Biggs — and Turning Point took a victory lap.
“转折点行动将调动本组织的全部资源、地面竞选团队和支持力量，全力支持比格斯的亚利桑那竞选活动，我们很荣幸能够这样做，”查理·柯克在2025年5月的一份声明中说。“他获得了我的完全和彻底的背书。”罗布森后来退出竞选，“转折点”帮助比格斯在初选中大获全胜。下周二将检验他们的普选能力是否有所长进。
“Turning Point Action will marshall our organization's full resources, ground game, and support behind the Biggs for Arizona campaign, and we’re honored to be able to do so,” Charlie Kirk said in a May 2025 statement. “He has my full and complete endorsement.”Robson later dropped out, and Turning Point helped Biggs romp to a massive victory in the primary. Next Tuesday will test if their general-election acumen has improved.