特朗普竞选团队2024年的广告“卡玛拉·哈里斯支持他们/她们”效果极其显著，特朗普的顶级策略人士将其归功于赢得了他们迫切需要的摇摆选民。此后，似乎可以合理地认为，这一攻击会失去部分杀伤力，民主党人会学会如何应对。
The Trump campaign’s 2024 ad “Kamala Harris is for they/them” was devastatingly effective, and top Trump strategists credit it with winning over persuadable voters they badly needed. After that, it seemed safe to assume the attack would lose some of its punch. Democrats would have learned how to answer it.
所以，德克萨斯州共和党参议院候选人、州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿及其盟友本轮选举周期在该问题上的广告支出估计达5800万美元，看起来像是一种“重蹈覆辙”的绝望之举。帕克斯顿是一位不受欢迎的候选人，没有强劲的经济作为缓冲，而他的民主党对手、州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科自7月以来在几乎所有公开民调中都领先。结果发现，这只对了一半。
So the estimated $58 million that state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee in Texas, and his allies have spent on ads about the issue this cycle looked like a desperate “fighting the last war” move. Paxton is an unpopular candidate without a strong economy to cushion him, and his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, has been ahead in nearly every public poll since July. That turned out to be only half right.
我们上周在德克萨斯州，为MS NOW的“选民档案”系列报道的最新一期采访，与哈里斯县支持特朗普在2024年投票的西班牙裔选民、休斯顿郊区的民主党人、沃思堡郊区的右倾选民以及胡德县的特朗普选民进行了交谈。
We spent last week in Texas for the latest installment of MS NOW’s “The Voter Files,” talking with Hispanic voters in Harris County who backed Donald Trump in 2024, Democrats from the Houston suburbs, right-leaning voters from the Fort Worth suburbs and Trump voters in Hood County.
在摇摆不定的右倾选民中，该问题丝毫未失其力量。它可能不足以让帕克斯顿胜选。但这轮轰炸——其中包括向学龄儿童寄送假的跨性别“资源指南”等肮脏手段——正在动摇共和党基本盘。它正在让愤怒的选民为帕克斯顿去投票，也让那些无法忍受帕克斯顿的保守派不敢转投塔拉里科。
Among the right-leaning voters who are wavering, the issue has not lost any of its power. It probably isn’t enough to get Paxton over the finish line. But the barrage, which has included dirty tricks — like a fake transgender “resource guide” mailed to school-age kids — is working on the Republican base. It’s getting angry voters to the polls for Paxton, and it’s keeping conservatives who can’t stomach him from crossing over to Talarico.
阿什利是沃思堡郊区的一位四个孩子的共和党母亲，她就是那些愤怒选民之一。两个竞选团队都否认寄送了那份传单。
Ashley, a Republican mother of four in the Fort Worth suburbs, is one of the angry ones. Both campaigns have denied sending the mailer.
“我真的不在乎是谁寄的。我只是不想让这些信息出现在我家里，”她说。
“I honestly don’t care who sent it. I just don’t want the info in my house,” she said.
她绝不会考虑投票给塔拉里科，后者曾就读神学院，并公开谈论自己的信仰。
She would never consider voting for Talarico, who went to seminary and talks openly about his faith.
“光是上过神学院，并不代表你有基督教价值观，”她说。“如果你以任何形式支持LGBTQ，那都不是基督教。”苏珊是另一种类型。她住在沃斯堡郊区，孩子在读高中和大学，几乎总是投共和党的票。在初选中，她投了参议员约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）的票，而帕克斯顿击败了科宁。她本该是可争取的选民。
“Just because you went to seminary doesn’t mean you have Christian values,” she said. “If you’re supporting LGBTQ in any form or fashion in that regard, that’s not Christian.”Susan is the other kind. She lives in the Fort Worth suburbs, has kids in high school and college, and almost always votes Republican. In the primary, she voted for Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton beat. She ought to be persuadable.
她对帕克斯顿品格的看法，就像她2016年对特朗普的看法一样，当时她投了第三党的票。特朗普的第一个任期赢得了她的支持，她在2020年和2024年都投了特朗普的票。
She feels about Paxton’s character the way she felt about Trump in 2016, when she voted third party. Trump’s first term won her over, and she voted for him in both 2020 and 2024.
“我大概率就是不投票，或者投自由意志党的票作为抗议，”她说。“我就是无法让自己投帕克斯顿的票，但我知道塔拉里科支持这个。”“这个”是指她眼中塔拉里科在涉及未成年人的跨性别问题上过于宽容的做法。2021年，在一场关于限制学生只能参加与其出生时指定性别相符的校队运动的法案听证会上，他辩称“实际上有六种常见的生理性别”。他上个月在福克斯新闻上收回了这番言论。但广告让那些旧话到处都是，苏珊把它们当成了他的真实世界观。
“I would probably just not vote or vote libertarian as a protest,” she said. “I just cannot bring myself to vote for Paxton, and yet I know Talarico is in favor of this.”“This” is what she sees as Talarico’s overly permissive approach to transgender issues involving minors. In 2021, during a hearing on a bill limiting students to school sports teams that match their sex assigned at birth, he argued that “there are six really common biological sexes.”He recanted last month on Fox News. But the ads have made sure those old remarks are everywhere, and Susan takes them as his real worldview.
她同情她认为是错误的基督教式慈悲尝试。但跨性别辩论搅动了她孩子的高中，所以这事关她个人，且比她在立场上更接近民主党人的那些议题更重要。她反对与伊朗开战，并对特朗普处理移民与海关执法局（ICE）、腐败和经济问题的方式感到沮丧。
She’s sympathetic to what she thinks is a misguided attempt at Christian compassion. But the transgender debate roiled her kids’ high school, so it’s personal, and it matters more to her than the issues where she’s closer to Democrats. She’s against the war with Iran, and she’s frustrated with how Trump has handled Immigration and Customs Enforcement, corruption and the economy.
我们在沃斯堡地区的小组里有八位右倾选民。六人在初选中投了科宁的票，有几人收到了寄给他们孩子的传单。七人表示，候选人在涉及儿童的跨性别政策上的立场会影响他们的投票。
There were eight right-leaning voters in our Fort Worth-area group. Six had voted for Cornyn in the primary, and several received mailers addressed to their children. Seven said where the candidates stand on transgender policy for kids would factor into how they vote.
这一问题也触动了我们在哈里斯县遇到的保守派西班牙裔选民的敏感神经。他们在2024年投了特朗普的票，对经济现状不满，也对他们认为过度的打击移民政策感到不满。这给民主党在政策层面留下了可乘之机。民主党持续失去这些选民的领域在于文化和共同价值观，而其中没有什么比跨性别者权利更重要了。
The issue also hits a nerve with the conservative Hispanic voters we met in Harris County. They voted for Trump in 2024, and they’re unhappy with the economy and with an immigration crackdown they consider overkill. That gives Democrats an opening on policy. Where Democrats keep losing them is on culture and shared values, and nothing matters more there than transgender rights.
“有些事情对我来说绝对是红线，不可商量，”六个孩子的母亲安杰利卡说。文化议题让她“更倾向于共和党，因为我认为耶稣应该回到学校”，安杰利卡解释道。在跨性别者权利问题上，她补充说：“我不想让任何人教我的孩子那些东西。”“你不能让一个七八九岁的孩子决定自己是当男孩还是当女孩，”吉列尔莫说，他目前仍倾向于塔拉里科。
“There’s certain things that are just a no-go for me, and it’s non-negotiable,” said Angelika, a mother of six. Cultural issues keep her “more towards the Republican side, because I believe Jesus should be in school,” Angelika explained. On transgender rights, she added, “I don’t want anyone teaching my kids about that kind of stuff.”“You can’t have a kid, you know, deciding if you’re going to be a boy or girl at the age of seven, eight, or nine,” said Guillermo, who still leans toward Talarico.
他们中的一些人不买塔拉里科收回言论的账，认为这不真诚、纯属政治作秀。
Some of them didn’t buy Talarico’s walk back, which they found insincere and political.
“如果你要说什么，就要坚持到底，”卡罗琳说。“另一方面，肯·帕克斯顿也一样，丑闻和腐败缠身，对我来说有点像是在两害相权取其轻。”并非所有人都关上了门。来自休斯顿北部的已婚房主阿德里安表示，如果民主党人塔拉里科能阐明立场，他愿意考虑支持他。
“If you are going to say something, stand by it,” Caroline said. “On the other hand, Ken Paxton too, with all the scandals and the corruption, it’s kind of picking the lesser of two evils for me.”Not everyone had closed the door. Adrian, a married homeowner from northern Houston, said he was open to Talarico if the Democrat would clarify where he stands.
“多谈谈宗教，多谈谈跨性别问题，”他说。“如果他更多地关注这些以及生活成本，我会考虑他。”四场焦点小组讨论无法预测全州范围选举的走向。但我们听到的情况表明，这些广告可能会让帕克斯顿出现“少投现象”：不喜欢他的保守派选民虽然会去投票，但会在参议员这一栏留空。其他人，比如苏珊，可能会投自由意志党候选人的抗议票。
“Talk more about religion, more about transgender,” he said. “If he focuses more on that and the cost of living, I would consider him.”Four focus groups can’t tell you how a statewide race will go. But what we heard suggests the ads may get Paxton an undervote: conservatives who dislike him turning out but leaving the Senate race blank. Others, like Susan, may cast a protest vote for the libertarian.
这两拨人都不会转投塔拉里科。但如果塔拉里科继续像近期民调显示的那样，在无党派选民中保持两位数的领先优势，且民主党选民维持这种高涨的热情，光靠这些对帕克斯顿来说还不够。
Neither group is crossing over to Talarico. But that isn’t enough for Paxton if Talarico keeps winning independents by double digits, as he has in recent polls, and Democratic voters stay this turbocharged.
反跨性别广告可能会成为共和党的“马奇诺防线”。一战后，法国斥巨资修建了针对上一场战争的防御工事，1940年德军却绕道而行。共和党在全国范围内估计花费了1.83亿美元打造自己的广告墙。这道墙未必能挡住选民对生活成本、腐败和特朗普打击移民政策的愤怒，也未必能挡住执政党在中期选举中通常面临的反弹。战场早已转移。数百万资金打了水漂，愤怒的人更多了。
The anti-transgender ads could turn out to be Republicans’ Maginot Line. After World War I, France spent a fortune on fortifications built for the last war, and in 1940, the Germans went around them. Republicans have spent an estimated $183 million nationwide on their own wall of ads. It may not hold back voter anger over the cost of living, corruption and Trump’s immigration crackdown, or the usual midterm backlash against the party in power. The fight has already moved somewhere else. Millions squandered, and more people are angry.
“我觉得一直在谈论这些东西的是共和党，我想，‘好吧，但这并不能让我的烤牛胸肉变便宜，’”一位参与者说，他是来自福特本德县的独立选民，通常投票给民主党。
“I feel like it’s the Republicans that are constantly talking about this stuff, and I’m like, ‘Okay, but that doesn’t make my brisket cheaper,’” said one participant, an independent from Fort Bend County who generally votes Democratic.