澳大利亚海伊——加里·麦克雷是海伊最后一位还在营业的肉贩。海伊是位于悉尼与阿德莱德之间广袤内陆地区中部的一座乡村小镇，但他对自己的垄断地位并不感到高兴。
HAY, Australia -- Garry McCrae is the last butcher left in Hay, a country town midway across the vast outback between Sydney and Adelaide, but he takes no pleasure from his monopoly.
在他看来，这个他卖肉超过40年的农业社区因政府官员的忽视而“慢慢死去”。
In his view, the agricultural community where he has sold meat for more than 40 years has "slowly died" due to neglect by government officials.
“他们对我们不感兴趣，”他说。“我们正在失去政治与我们之间的联系……我受够了现状。我认为我们需要改变。”直到今年5月之前，位于新南威尔士州西南部的这里，选民自1949年法勒选区设立以来一直支持结盟的自由党和国家党的候选人，包括前反对党领袖苏珊·莱伊。但这一次，麦克雷和他的邻居们拒绝了自由党和国家党联盟，转而支持单一民族党，使这个右翼团体首次赢得联邦众议院选举。
"They do not have an interest in us," he said. "We're losing the connection between politics and us. ... I'm sick of the way things are. I think we need change." Until this past May, voters here on the southwest side of New South Wales state had always backed candidates from the allied Liberal and National parties since the creation of the electoral district of Farrer in 1949, including former opposition leader Sussan Ley. But this time around, McCrae and his neighbors rejected the Liberal-National coalition in favor of the One Nation party, giving the right-wing group its first-ever federal House of Representatives election victory.
“我认为这给了我们一点发声的机会，”麦克雷说。“我们希望被倾听，我们希望事情变得更好。”肉贩加里·麦克雷说，单一民族党候选人当选议员让新南威尔士州西南部的选民“有了一点发声的机会”。法勒的选民并不是唯一转向单一民族党的澳大利亚人。
"I think it's given us a bit of a voice," McCrae said. "We want to be listened to, and we want things to be better." Butcher Garry McCrae says the election of a One Nation candidate to Parliament has given voters in southwest New South Wales "a bit of a voice." Farrer voters are not the only Australians turning to One Nation.
这个拥有29年历史的政党以其反对移民和反对针对澳大利亚原住民的项目而闻名，今年在其位于东北部昆士兰州的根据地之外取得了前所未有的成功。在2026年伊始，该党在澳大利亚各政治阵营中的受欢迎程度还远远排在第四位，但根据最近几项民调，它现在是澳大利亚公众最青睐的政党，并且看起来有望在11月28日该国人口第二多的州维多利亚州选举新议会时取得重大突破。
The 29-year-old party, best known for its resistance to immigration and programs for Indigenous Australians, is enjoying unprecedented success this year outside its home base in the northeastern state of Queensland. After starting 2026 a distant fourth in popularity among the country's political blocs, it is now the Australian public's favorite according to several recent polls, and looks poised for a major breakthrough when Victoria, the country's second most populous state, elects a new parliament on Nov. 28.
正如英国、德国和法国反移民政党支持率飙升所显示的那样，“单一民族党”的崛起已迫使总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯领导的工党政府收紧对新入境者的限制。由于该国最迟将于2028年5月举行大选，亚太地区各国将密切关注“单一民族党”能走多远——鉴于该党对国际合作和气候行动的抵触，以及对外国投资和国际贸易协定的戒心。
As seen with the soaring popularity of anti-immigrant parties in the U.K., Germany and France, One Nation's surge has pushed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor government to tighten restrictions on new arrivals. With the country due to hold a general election by May 2028, nations around Asia and the Pacific will be watching to see how far One Nation can go given its antipathy to international cooperation and climate action and wariness about foreign investment and international trade agreements.
“法勒选区将表明，‘单一民族党’基本上能赢得全国每一个乡村席位，”资深选举分析师安东尼·格林说，他在悉尼大学讲授政治学。他表示，维多利亚州选举和明年的新南威尔士州选举将是“对国家政治未来最重要的州选举”，并将显示“澳大利亚的政党体制如何运作”。“单一民族党”今年从澳大利亚政治边缘骤然崛起，似乎源于多种因素的交汇，包括伊朗战争导致的生活成本上升、反对党自由党-国家党联盟支持率崩塌、去年12月悉尼邦迪海滩致命伊斯兰主义袭击后的焦虑，以及该党在社交媒体上更为精明的策略。
"Farrer would indicate One Nation can win basically every rural seat in the country," said Antony Green, a veteran election analyst who lectures in politics at the University of Sydney. He said the Victoria election and next year's vote in New South Wales will be "the most important state elections for the future of national politics" and will show "how the party system is working in Australia." One Nation's abrupt rise this year from Australia's political margins appears to stem from a convergence of factors including heightened living costs due to the Iran war, the collapsing popularity of the opposition Liberal-National coalition, anxiety following the deadly Islamist attack at Bondi Beach in Sydney last December and a smartened party approach to social media.
尽管新冠疫情后澳大利亚入境移民的爆炸式增长已经消退，但移民仍是一个敏感议题，入境人数仍高于疫情前水平。“单一民族党”还得益于澳大利亚首富、矿业大亨吉娜·莱因哈特新近的资助。8月30日，“单一民族党”支持者在悉尼参加反移民集会。
While the explosive post-COVID surge in inbound migration into Australia has ebbed, immigration remains a sensitive issue with arrivals still running above pre-pandemic levels. One Nation has also benefitted from the new patronage of mining tycoon Gina Rinehart Australia's richest person. One Nation supporters join an anti-immigration rally in Sydney on Aug. 30.
“它吸引的是真正深受生活成本危机之苦的人，以及认为工党和自由党都没有回应这些关切的人，”澳大利亚巴瑟斯特查尔斯特大学政治学教授多米尼克·奥沙利文说。
"It is attracting people who are really suffering from the cost-of-living crisis, and people who think that neither the Labor nor the Liberal parties are responding to those concerns," said Dominic O'Sullivan, a professor of political science at Charles Sturt University in Bathurst, Australia.
这一点在海伊等地显而易见。镇上的火车站曾经熙熙攘攘，列车载着乘客、羊毛和农作物驶往悉尼，但自1989年以来就没有列车服务，不过车站被保留下来供游客参观。这里也已经几十年没有航空服务。镇中心周围的空置店面挂着“招租”的牌子。空置的店面散布在海伊市中心，这里的人口一直在减少。
This is evident in places like Hay. The town's railway station, which once bustled with trains carrying people, wool and crops to Sydney, has had no service since 1989 but has been preserved for tourists. There has been no airline service for decades either. "For lease" signs hang across vacant shopfronts around the center of town. Vacant storefronts dot the center of Hay, where the population has been shrinking.
“我们能获得的新鲜食物变少了，食品价格上涨，医疗保健根本不存在，”一位50多岁、不愿透露姓名的镇居民说。“我们只觉得自己被彻底抛弃了。”
"Our access to fresh food goes down, the cost of food goes up, health care's non-existent," said a town resident in his 50s who preferred not to give his name. "We just feel completely abandoned."
这名男子说，“单一民族党对我来说最大的吸引力”在于，“它给了人们一个机会，把那个信息传递给其他政党，说：‘你们一直没有做好自己的工作。’”周三，澳大利亚统计局报告称，9月份消费者价格指数同比上涨4.3%，这意味着该国的通胀率目前在所有发达国家中位居最高之列。利率已达到15年来的最高水平。更让人感到落后的是，截至6月30日的一年中，人均净国民可支配收入仍低于2022年或2023年的水平。
"The biggest appeal of One Nation for me," the man said, is that "it gives people an opportunity to send that message to the other parties and say, 'You haven't been doing your job.'" On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that September's consumer price index had risen 4.3% from a year earlier, meaning inflation in the country is now among the highest of any developed nation. Interest rates have reached a 15-year high Adding to the sense of falling behind, net national disposable income per capita was still lower in the year ended June 30 than it was in 2022 or 2023.
然而，海伊一位60多岁的退休卫生行政人员安妮特·史密斯说，支持单一民族党仍然带有一些污名。
Yet Annette Smith, a retired health administrator in Hay in her 60s, said there is still some stigma attached to backing One Nation.
海伊居民安妮特·史密斯说，她的女儿们对她支持单一民族党感到不满。
Hay resident Annette Smith says her daughters are unhappy about her support of One Nation.
“人们认为，如果你支持一国党，就一定没有头脑、没有智力、没有受过教育、也没有钱，”史密斯说，并提到她两个女儿对她支持大卫·法利的负面反应。法利是一位前农业企业高管，代表该党赢得了法拉席席位。“她们对我非常不满。”
"The perception is that if you support One Nation, you must have no brains, no intelligence, no education and no money," Smith said, noting the negative reaction of her two daughters to her backing of David Farley, the former agribusiness executive who won the Farrer seat for the party. "They're not happy with me at all."
竞选期间，她代表一群居民联系了几位候选人，希望举行一次面对面会面，但法利是唯一回应的人。“他就像隔壁的农民，”史密斯说。“他平易近人，很容易接近。而且他会回你的电话。”保琳·汉森认为，维多利亚州选举可能成为她的一国党“一个真正的转折点”。
During the campaign, she reached out to several candidates on behalf of a group of residents about holding a face-to-face meeting, but Farley was the only one who responded. "He's just like the farmer next door," Smith said. "He's personable and approachable. And he returns your calls." Pauline Hanson believes the Victoria state election could be "a real turning point" for her One Nation party.
海对法利的接纳反过来也为一国党带来了更多体面。“越多的人表明立场，或在家门外展示标语，就越能给其他人信心，”该镇一位天主教神父保罗·牛顿说。“下一个人会说，‘我也能做到。我不再害怕了。’”一国党创始人保琳·汉森认为，维多利亚州选举将进一步巩固这一效应。汉森是一名前餐馆老板，1996年以独立人士身份进入联邦众议院时，曾警告“被亚洲人淹没的危险”。
Hay's embrace of Farley in turn has brought more respectability to One Nation. "The more people who took a position, or displayed a sign outside their home, the more confidence it gave others," said Paul Newton, a Catholic priest in the town. "The next person would say, 'I can do that too. I'm not afraid anymore.'" One Nation founder Pauline Hanson, a former restaurateur known for warning of the "danger of being swamped by Asians" when she took her seat in the federal House of Representatives in 1996 as an independent, believes the Victoria election will build further on this effect.
“这对澳大利亚一国党来说，可能是一个真正的转折点，如果我们在那里赢得若干席位，我认为这会告诉人们，你们现在有理由投票给一国党，”参议员汉森最近在接受《日经亚洲》采访时表示，“人们想要改变。”另见：澳大利亚崛起的极右翼领袖对中国电动汽车涌入表示担忧。法勒选区的胜利紧随一国党去年在澳大利亚参议院席位翻倍至四席，以及今年三月在南澳大利亚州下议院赢得四个席位之后。
"It really could be a real turning point for One Nation in Australia, and if we win a number of seats there, I think it will tell people you have now a license to vote for One Nation," Senator Hanson told Nikkei Asia in a recent interview "People want change." See also Australia's rising far-right leader raises alarm over China's EV influx The Farrer victory followed One Nation's success in doubling its presence in the Australian Senate last year to four seats and its winning of four spots in South Australia's lower house in March.
八月，该党在珀斯一个长期由工党代表的选区举行的特别选举中，赢得了西澳大利亚州立法议会的首个席位。
In August, the party won its first seat in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly in a special election in an area of Perth long represented by Labor.
一国党计划在澳大利亚人口最多的州新南威尔士州三月选举新议会时，扩大其在该州的影响力。一国党对风能和太阳能以及净零气候政策的敌意，以及对煤炭的热烈支持，在悉尼以北约200公里的采矿和燃煤发电站中心亨特谷地区很受欢迎。
One Nation is aiming to expand its New South Wales footprint when Australia's most populous state elects a new parliament in March. One Nation's hostility to wind and solar power and net-zero climate policies and its enthusiastic backing for coal play well in the Hunter Valley region, a center for mining and coal-fueled power stations around 200 kilometers north of Sydney.
图片：8月28日，菲尔·阿德斯（中）与同事们一起聆听一国党领袖访问其位于澳大利亚辛格尔顿的公司“钻头医生”。
Phil Adams, center, listens with colleagues to One Nation leaders visiting their company Drill Doctors in Singleton, Australia, on Aug. 28.
“我们有点觉得他们站在我们这边，”位于辛格尔顿镇的采矿机械和工具公司“钻头医生”的总监安德鲁·杰克逊说，“如果矿山倒闭，小企业就会倒闭，社区也会随之消失。”他的一名员工菲尔·阿德斯补充道：“没有采矿，我们就没有家……如果矿山消失，整整一代人将失去生计。”辛格尔顿居民简·穆勒也持此观点。“如果这里没有工作，谁还愿意住在这里？”她问道。
"We kind of feel like they're in our corner," said Andrew Jackson, director of Drill Doctors, a mining machinery and tool company based in the town of Singleton. "If the mines go, the small businesses go and the community goes." Added Phil Adams, one of his employees: "We wouldn't have a home without mining. ... If the mines disappear, an entire generation loses its livelihood." This is also the view of Singleton resident Jane Muller. "Who is going to want to live here when the jobs are not here?" she wondered.
在移民问题上，邦迪海滩袭击事件促使汉森将重点转向“激进伊斯兰主义”。六月，她将澳大利亚描述为一个以犹太-基督教传统为主的“单一文化社会”，这一言论甚至引来了部分支持者的批评。
On immigration, the Bondi Beach attack led Hanson to sharpen her focus on "radical Islamism." In June, she described Australia as a "monocultural society" with a predominantly Judeo-Christian heritage, a comment that drew criticism even from some of her supporters.
同化对移民至关重要，这位72岁的老人对《日经》表示。“他们最初为什么来这里？他们来这里是为了成为澳大利亚人，我只要求这一点：尊重我们的文化和我们的法律。”2017年8月的保琳·汉森：她曾两次身着罩袍出现在澳大利亚参议院，以争取支持禁止在公共场所佩戴这种遮盖面部的服装。
Assimilation is key for immigrants, the 72-year-old told Nikkei. "Why did they come here in the first place? They came here to be Australian, and that's all I ask: Respect our culture and our laws." Pauline Hanson in August 2017: She has appeared in the Australian Senate twice in a burqa to seek support for banning the public wearing of the face-covering garment.
通过削减签证，一国党旨在将年度移民流入量降低至与2021年新冠疫情高峰期澳大利亚接收的14.6万名抵达者相当的水平。该党一直通过在社交媒体上发布专业制作的动画视频来阐述其政策立场，视频标签为“保琳·汉森的请解释”，以触达新受众。
By slashing visas One Nation aims to reduce annual migrant inflows to a level comparable to the 146,000 arrivals Australia received in 2021 at the height of the COVID pandemic. The party has been setting out its policy positions via professionally produced animated videos posted on social media under the label "Pauline Hanson's Please Explain" to reach new audiences.
堪培拉大学审议民主中心高级研究员乔丹·麦克斯威尼将该系列描述为“一国党更广泛传播策略的一部分成功尝试”。他补充道：“这使得一国党能够以一种更柔和的方式呈现政治意识形态内容。”针对经济焦虑，一国党的政策纲领主张削减燃料、酒精和建筑材料的税收，扩大对退休人员和家庭的减税优惠，并增加学徒工资补贴的可获得性。
Jordan McSwiney, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Deliberative Democracy at the University of Canberra, describes the series as "a successful part of One Nation's broader communication strategy." He added, "They allow One Nation to present political ideological content in a softer way." Addressing economic anxiety, One Nation's policy platform calls for slashing taxes on fuel, alcohol and building materials, expanding tax breaks for retirees and families and increasing the availability of wage subsidies for apprentices.
被该党日益高涨的支持率所震惊，总理阿尔巴尼斯及其团队开始就一国党的社会议程敲响警钟，该议程包括限制堕胎、废除对枪支销售的管制以及取消对残障人士的便利设施要求等承诺。反对者回应了8月30日在悉尼涉及一国党的反移民游行。
Rattled by the party's surging popularity, Prime Minister Albanese and his team have taken to sounding the alarm about One Nation's social agenda, which includes promises to restrict abortion, repeal controls on gun sales and remove requirements on accommodating the handicapped. Counter protesters respond to the anti-immigration march involving One Nation in Sydney on Aug. 30.
“在世界各地，极右翼民粹主义者正在抬头，兜售危险、分裂且彻头彻尾的欺骗性政治，”阿尔巴尼斯8月表示。“我们必须击败他们。”就像自由党总理约翰·霍华德在1990年代化解了对汉森的第一波支持浪潮一样，阿尔巴尼斯通过强硬其政府对待移民的立场，部分回应了一国党的崛起。上个月，政府宣布将不再允许大多数持教育签证入境的外国学生携带家属同行。官方还调整了税收政策以降低住房成本。
"Across the world, hard-right populists are on the march, peddling politics that is dangerous, divisive and downright dishonest," Albanese said in August. "We simply must defeat them." Like Liberal Prime Minister John Howard, who defused the first wave of support for Hanson in the 1990s, Albanese has partly responded to One Nation's rise by hardening his government's stance toward immigrants Last month, the government announced it would no longer allow most foreign students coming into the country on educational visas to bring along family. Officials have also made tax policy adjustments to reduce housing costs.
悉尼大学的格林表示，阿尔巴尼斯需要采取更多措施，才能触及助推一国党崛起的焦虑根源。“政府应该多谈论经济，”他说。“让我们把重点拉回到应对经济上来，避开所有那些无关的议题。”
The University of Sydney's Green said Albanese needs to go further to get at the anxieties fueling One Nation's rise. "The government should talk more about the economy," he said. "Let's bring it back to dealing with the economy and avoid all those extraneous issues."