10月30日，参议员宝琳·汉森大摇大摆地走进秘密港，那架势活像一位将军在视察新征服的领土。这是她那个杂牌民粹政党“单一民族党”赢得这座沿海城镇补选以来的首次到访。这场西澳大利亚州议会席位的争夺战，是“单一民族党”今年在全国各州及联邦选举中掀起的“橙色浪潮”的最新一胜。但秘密港尤其值得关注，因为这座城镇还位于汉森最强劲的对手之一、特种部队老兵、自由党前座议员安德鲁·哈斯蒂（见图）的联邦选区之内。
Senator pauline hanson swaggered into Secret Harbour on October 30th like a general inspecting troops in newly conquered territory. It was her first visit since One Nation, her ragtag populist party, won a by-election in the coastal town. The race for a seat in the Western Australia state parliament was the latest in an “orange wave” of wins for One Nation in state and federal elections across the country this year. But Secret Harbour merits special notice, because the town also sits inside the federal constituency of one of Ms Hanson’s most formidable opponents, the special-forces veteran and Liberal Party frontbencher Andrew Hastie (pictured).
汉森曾被视为无足轻重的搅局者，如今却已成为一股不可小觑的力量。今年1月，“单一民族党”在民调中反超自由党，此后在右翼阵营中一直保持稳定领先。如今，“单一民族党”与执政的工党也是并驾齐驱。尽管该党仍缺乏全国性组织的大部分架构，但汉森已证明，她能够把选民对主要政党的愤怒转化为议席。这让她所在的政党真正有望在下次选举中取代自由党成为官方反对党，而组建下一届政府的前景则较为渺茫。
Once dismissed as a gadfly, Ms Hanson is now a force to be reckoned with. In January One Nation passed the Liberals in the polls and has held a steady lead on the right ever since. One Nation is now running neck-and-neck with the governing Labor Party, too. While it still lacks much of the scaffolding of a national organisation, Ms Hanson has shown that she can convert voter anger at the major parties into seats. That has given her party a real shot at replacing the Liberals as the official opposition at the next election, and an outside one at forming the next government.
自由党今年2月推选安格斯·泰勒出任新领袖，但这并未给该党命运带来多少提振。泰勒大多避免与汉森正面交锋，即便她攻击他是“油滑的管理顾问”。相比之下，哈斯蒂则直接与她交手。一些自由党人认为，面对汉森这样的民粹主义挑战者，他会比泰勒成为更强的领袖。“显而易见，更好的选择本应是哈斯蒂，”前总理、自由党领袖马尔科姆·特恩布尔说。
The election in February of Angus Taylor as the Liberals’ new leader has done little to boost the party’s fortunes. Mr Taylor has mostly avoided confrontation with Ms Hanson, even as she attacks him as a “smarmy management consultant”. Mr Hastie, in contrast, has taken her on directly. Some Liberals argue that he would be a stronger leader than Mr Taylor against a populist challenger like Ms Hanson. “It was obvious that the better choice would have been Hastie,” says Malcolm Turnbull, a former prime minister and Liberal leader.
“我确信他总有一天会领导自由党——只要他不丢掉自己的席位。”哈斯蒂可能面临两种如此不同的未来，很大程度上源于他做出的一个决定：出庭作证，指证一名被控犯有战争罪的战友。这在右翼引发了一场情绪激烈的辩论，而汉森一直急于利用这场辩论为自己谋利。“我被传唤，然后宣誓必须说实话，”哈斯蒂在首都堪培拉的国会大厦接受《经济学人》采访时说。
“I’m sure he’ll lead the Liberal party some day—if he doesn’t lose his seat.”That Mr Hastie might face two such different futures is largely a consequence of one decision that he made: to testify against a fellow soldier accused of war crimes. That has led to an emotional debate on the right, one which Ms Hanson has been eager to use to her advantage. “I was subpoenaed, and then under oath required to tell the truth,” says Mr Hastie in an interview with The Economist in Parliament House in Canberra, the capital.
“你宁愿我藐视法庭撒谎吗？”自今年年初以来，对这个问题的截然不同的回答一直在撕裂澳大利亚右翼。哈斯蒂现在正受到汉森及其强大盟友的攻击，比如矿业巨头吉娜·莱因哈特和媒体大亨克里·斯托克斯，其中一些人曾是自由党的支持者。7月，汉森发布了一段视频，称哈斯蒂是“叛徒”，并鼓励自由党人抛弃他。这一策略似乎正在奏效。
“Would you rather me be in contempt of court and lie?”Wildly divergent answers to that question have been tearing the Australian right apart since the start of the year. Mr Hastie is now under attack from Ms Hanson and her powerful allies like Gina Rinehart, a mining magnate, and Kerry Stokes, a media baron, some of them once supporters of the Liberals. In July, Ms Hanson published a video calling Mr Hastie a “traitor” and encouraging Liberals to abandon him. The strategy seems to be working.
自由党主席、另一位前总理托尼·阿博特已与哈斯蒂保持距离。这位特种部队老兵说，他们正试图“对我进行人身毁灭”。但对澳大利亚右翼来说，利害关系远不止于此。这位精锐特种空勤团（SAS）的老兵不太可能是民粹主义右翼的仇恨对象。过去一年，哈斯蒂一直带头推动自由党在那些往往能煽动富裕世界民粹主义者的问题上向右转。
Tony Abbott, the president of the Liberal party and another former prime minister, has distanced himself from Mr Hastie. They are trying, the special forces veteran says, “to destroy me personally”. But the stakes for the Australian right are much greater than that. The veteran of the elite Special Air Service (SAS) regiment is an unlikely hate figure for the populist right. Mr Hastie has led a push over the past year to drag the Liberal Party to the right on the issues that tend to animate populists in the rich world.
在移民问题上，他呼吁降低净移民人数，这现在是该党的政策。他反对女性参加战斗。像汉森和许多其他民粹主义者一样，哈斯蒂对澳大利亚制造业的衰落表示惋惜，主张采取更积极的产业政策来恢复就业。但在维护法治的问题上，他与他们分道扬镳。哈斯蒂将他反对战争罪的立场与他的基督教信仰联系在一起。
On immigration, his call for lower net-migration numbers is now party policy. He’s against women in combat. Like Ms Hanson and many other populists, Mr Hastie bemoans the demise of Australian manufacturing, arguing for more active industrial policy to bring back jobs. But he parts ways with them when it comes to upholding the rule of law. Mr Hastie links his stand against war crimes to his Christian faith.
他告诉支持者，他针对一名战友所作的证词，是在上帝面前宣誓后提供的。这位长老会牧师的儿子在信仰问题上比大多数澳大利亚政客都更坦率。“我在政治和领导力方面学到的东西，更多来自在教堂里观察我的父亲，而不是其他任何地方，”他说。但他又特意补充道：“我不是基督教民族主义者。”相比之下，汉森女士曾称澳大利亚是一个基督教国家，同时回避有关她自己宗教观点的问题。
His testimony against a fellow soldier, he tells supporters, was given under an oath made before God. The son of a Presbyterian minister is more open about his faith than most Australian politicians. “I learned more about politics and leadership watching my father at church than anywhere else,” he says. But, he is at pains to add, “I am not a Christian nationalist.”By contrast, Ms Hanson has called Australia a Christian country while dodging questions about her own religious views.
从父亲教堂里得到的教益，有时会指向出人意料的方向。哈斯蒂先生反对堕胎和同性婚姻，但拒绝汉森女士关于澳大利亚应成为“单一文化”国家的呼吁。在他看来，更糟糕的是她的支持者要求对移民设定种族标准。他回忆起父亲在阿什菲尔德的教堂——那里当时是悉尼最多元化的郊区之一——用多种亚洲语言举行礼拜，因为“每个人都是按上帝的形象造的”。
The lessons from his father’s church sometimes point in unexpected directions. Mr Hastie opposes abortion and gay marriage, but rejects Ms Hanson’s call for a “monocultural” Australia. Worse yet, in his view, are her fans’ calls for racial criteria for immigrants. He recalls his father’s church in Ashfield, then one of Sydney’s most diverse suburbs, which held services in several Asian languages because “everyone is made in God’s image.”
他说，选择移民应依据他们的价值观和技能，而不是他们的族裔。同样的理念也让哈斯蒂先生能够跨越党派界线结交朋友。以参议员黄英贤为例，她是外交部长，也是工党的中坚人物。黄女士是同性恋，出生于马来西亚，看上去似乎不太可能成为他的伙伴。但在哈斯蒂先生还是后座议员、黄女士还在反对党时，两人合作得很好。
Immigrants, he says, should be chosen for their values and skills rather than their ethnicity. That same philosophy has allowed Mr Hastie to make friends across the aisle. Take Senator Penny Wong, the foreign minister and a Labor stalwart. Ms Wong, gay and born in Malaysia, might seem an unlikely partner. But the two worked well together when Mr Hastie was a backbencher and Ms Wong was in opposition.
“我一直很清楚……他是他那一方少数相信存在高于党派利益的国家利益的人之一，”黄女士说。“虽然安德鲁并不真正站在现代澳大利亚所在的位置上，但他明白，你不可能在‘宝琳’这一点上比宝琳更宝琳。”这暗示了哈斯蒂先生可能的一条出路。他曾被称为自由党冉冉升起的右翼人物，而如今他与单一民族的斗争正在扩大他的吸引力。
“It’s always been clear to me…that he is one of the few on his side who believes there is a national interest above partisanship,” says Ms Wong. “While Andrew isn’t really where modern Australia is, he understands that you can’t out-Pauline Pauline.”That hints at a potential way through for Mr Hastie. Once known as the Liberal Party’s rising right-winger, his fight with One Nation is broadening his appeal.
他没有放弃自己保守派资历的计划，但他正在寻找新的盟友。在他自己的党内，像特恩布尔先生这样曾批评过他的温和派元老现在也给予谨慎的赞扬。在上个月的一场筹款活动中，80%的参与者是新捐款人。
He has no plans to give up his conservative bona fides, but he is seeking out new allies. Within his own party, once-critical moderate grandees like Mr Turnbull now offer cautious praise. At a fundraiser last month 80% of participants were new donors.
他也越来越频繁地出现在公共电视和广播节目中，这些节目的观众群体偏向中间偏左。这可能让他未来领导自由党的地位更加稳固。但首先，他必须挫败汉森女士将他贴上“保守派基础叛徒”标签的运动。目前，他仍看起来处于被围困之中。内政部长引述未明确的威胁，建议警方加强其住所和办公室的安保。“这有点令人不安，”哈斯蒂先生说。“但我是个基督徒。我会为这些事情祈祷，对此我内心平静。”
And he has become a more regular guest on public television and radio shows, whose viewers tend to skew centre-left. That could leave him in a stronger position to lead the Liberal Party in the future. But first, he must see off Ms Hanson’s campaign to brand him a traitor to the conservative base. And for the moment, he still looks to be under siege. The home-affairs minister has cited unspecified threats in advising police to upgrade security at his home and office. “It’s a bit unnerving,” Mr Hastie says. “But I’m a Christian. I pray about these things, and I’m at peace about it.”