CASTRIES, St Lucia, Oct 29 - Antigua and Barbuda's likely move to end its citizenship-by-investment program under European Union pressure threatens a vital revenue stream for the island nation and could test the future of Caribbean "golden passport" schemes, analysts said.

The issue exposes a vulnerability across the Caribbean, where several small economies have built government revenues and luxury developments around demand for passports valued partly for the access to Europe they provide.

Prime Minister Gaston Browne said this month Antigua would “very likely” commit to phasing out its citizenship-by-investment program after the EU gave Antigua and four other Eastern Caribbean nations until November 12 to agree to close their schemes by June 1, 2028.

The EU says the programs pose security risks by allowing foreigners with few ties to a country to obtain citizenship and visa-free entry to the Schengen area, a key selling point for passport buyers. Countries that keep the schemes risk losing that access.

The EU had initially requested the June 2028 phase-out in letters sent to Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia in June. Under a revised EU visa-suspension mechanism, operating an investor-citizenship program can itself provide grounds for suspending visa-free access, though the suspension is not automatic.

The programs, which require investments starting at $200,000, grant foreign applicants citizenship and a passport, rather than temporary residency, typically in exchange for contributions to state funds or investments in approved projects.

Buyers have included nationals of China, Russia and Middle Eastern countries who would normally need visas to enter the EU, and applicants generally have not been required to live in the Caribbean to obtain citizenship. Demand from Americans has grown since 2020, according to Kristin Surak, a London School of Economics professor who researches investment migration.

Citizenship-by-investment inflows in 2023 equaled about a fifth of the combined GDP of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, a group of eight Caribbean economies that share a currency and central bank, according to a 2025 International Monetary Fund paper. The IMF estimated in a paper published in 2025 that direct investment in projects tied to the passport programs was so large that it represented between 100% to 170% of all foreign direct investment officially recorded across the five countries with such schemes. 'EXISTENTIAL FISCAL QUESTION'

Schengen access has traditionally been an important attraction for buyers of Caribbean citizenship-by-investment passports, and losing it could reduce their value while affecting ordinary citizens too, said Surak.

A suspension could force hotels and other developments financed through passport sales to seek fresh capital, delay construction or abandon projects altogether, analysts said.

The immediate stakes are high for Antigua, where citizenship sales are the government’s largest source of non-tax revenue, according to C. Justin Robinson, director of the University of the West Indies Five Islands Campus.

The government collected about $58 million from the program in 2025 and budgeted $44.4 million for 2026, or roughly 7% to 11% of recurrent revenue, he said.

Ending the program would erase more than half of Antigua’s projected primary surplus this year, Robinson estimated. The consequences could be even greater elsewhere.

In St Kitts and Nevis and Dominica, where such inflows have at times exceeded 10% of GDP, suspension could pose what Robinson called an “existential fiscal question.”

Antigua's experience could also test how aggressively Brussels is prepared to use access to Europe as leverage over citizenship policies beyond its borders. The EU also withdrew Vanuatu’s visa-free access in 2024 over concerns surrounding its investor-citizenship scheme.