东京 —— 受海外新建核电站需求拉动，IHI（石川岛播磨重工业）的核电业务有望实现增长，但其雄心面临韩国斗山能源的激烈竞争。
TOKYO -- IHI's nuclear power business is on track for growth driven by overseas demand for new plants, though its ambitions face intense competition from South Korea's Doosan Enerbility.
这家日本工程集团的旗舰横滨工厂在10月初的探访中一派繁忙，经船运送达的钢板在此被切割、弯曲、焊接成压力容器。大型反应堆用压力容器高20至30米，重量可达950公吨。
The Japanese engineering group's flagship Yokohama plant was bustling during an early October visit, as steel plates delivered by ship were cut, bent and welded into pressure vessels. Pressure vessels for large reactors stand 20 to 30 meters tall and can weigh 950 metric tons.
厂房一侧是一大片空地，生产设备已被清空。原本用于制造工业机械的区域正在改造为核电相关生产线。
One part of the building is a large empty space where production equipment has been cleared away. An area previously used to manufacture industrial machinery is being converted for nuclear-related production.
“我们目前正在扩建焊接区域，”工厂长兼广濑说，“不扩产就无法满足需求。”IHI计划在三年内投资约200亿日元（约合1.27亿美元），将核电站部件产能提高一倍以上。
"We're currently working on expanding the welding area," plant manager Takanori Kanehiro said. "We can't meet demand unless we expand." IHI plans to invest about 20 billion yen ($127 million) over three years to more than double production capacity for nuclear power plant components.
在横滨工厂，公司正引入自动焊接机，并考虑使用机器人和人工智能。此外，还将把兵库县一家工厂的部分产线转为核反应堆零部件生产，打造另一个制造基地。
At the Yokohama plant, the company is introducing automated welding machines and considering using robots and artificial intelligence. It will also convert part of a plant in Hyogo prefecture for nuclear reactor parts, creating another manufacturing base.
此番投资源于海外客户的浓厚兴趣。随着AI普及和数据中心激增，全球用电量预计将上升。
The investment is driven by strong interest from overseas customers. Global electricity demand is expected to rise as AI adoption spreads and data centers proliferate.
“特别是来自欧洲和美国，关于制造压力容器和安全壳的询价非常多，”统括能源业务的常务执行役员小泽宪昭表示。
"We are getting a lot of inquiries, particularly from Europe and the U.S., to manufacture pressure vessels and containment vessels," said Noriaki Ozawa, a managing executive officer overseeing the energy business.
IHI预期将获得包括美国西屋电气和GE Vernova在内的企业的订单。“我们确信能确保20%的利润率，”小泽说。
IHI anticipates orders from companies including U.S.-based Westinghouse Electric and GE Vernova. "We're sure to secure a 20% profit margin," Ozawa said.
日本、欧洲和美国多年来鲜有新建核电站，导致压力容器制造商寥寥无几。产能不足，促使客户提前下单，以期应对反应堆建设的预期增长。
Japan, Europe and the U.S. have seen scant nuclear power plants built for many years, leaving few pressure vessel manufacturers. Capacity is insufficient, prompting customers to place orders early in anticipation of an increase in reactor construction.
IHI计划将其核能业务销售额从截至3月的财年576亿日元提升至2031财年超过1000亿日元。
IHI aims to raise sales in its nuclear business from 57.6 billion yen in the year ended March to more than 100 billion yen by fiscal 2031.
在日本，反应堆重启和退役项目的需求预计将推动年均5%的销售增长。海外销售目前几乎为零，但预计将在2031财年激增至400亿至500亿日元。
In Japan, demand from reactor restarts and decommissioning projects is expected to drive 5% average annual sales growth. Overseas sales are almost nonexistent right now but are projected to surge to between 40 billion and 50 billion yen by fiscal 2031.
该公司2025财年合并营业利润总额为1655亿日元。假设核能业务营业利润率为15%，实现IHI的目标将在六年内增加约60亿日元的营业利润。
The company posted overall consolidated operating profit of 165.5 billion yen for fiscal 2025. Assuming a 15% operating margin for the nuclear business, achieving IHI's target would add roughly 6 billion yen in operating profit in six years.
花旗集团分析师格雷厄姆·麦克唐纳表示，该公司对该业务的目标是保守的。他预计该公司将在2028财年实现1000亿日元的销售额——比IHI的计划提前三年——并认为，得益于20%的营业利润率，国内业务可以产生稳定收益。
Citigroup analyst Graeme McDonald says the company's goal for the business is conservative. He expects it to reach 100 billion yen in sales by fiscal 2028 -- three years ahead of IHI's plan -- and believes the domestic business can generate stable earnings thanks to a 20% operating margin.
IHI于2021年投资了美国初创公司NuScale Power，该公司开发小型模块化反应堆（SMR）。
IHI invested in U.S. startup NuScale Power, a developer of small modular reactors (SMRs), in 2021.
“它应该能够按其投资份额的比例获得订单，”SMBC日兴证券高级分析师谷中聪表示。
"It should be able to win orders in proportion to its investment stake," said SMBC Nikko Securities senior analyst Satoshi Taninaka.
然而，IHI面临着韩国斗山能源公司这一在海外市场的强劲竞争对手。
However, IHI faces South Korea's Doosan Enerbility, a formidable rival in overseas markets.
韩国政府已将核出口列为国家优先事项。斗山已与另一家美国初创公司签署预订协议，以制造SMR部件。
The South Korean government has made nuclear exports a national priority. Doosan has signed a reservation agreement with another U.S. startup to manufacture SMR components.
斗山今年瞄准价值5800亿日元的订单，约为IHI预计2026财年700亿日元订单的八倍。它向包括捷克共和国和阿拉伯联合酋长国在内的国家出口核设备。
Doosan is targeting orders worth 580 billion yen this year, about eight times the 70 billion yen that IHI projects for fiscal 2026. It exports nuclear equipment to countries including the Czech Republic and the United Arab Emirates.
据QUICK FactSet，斗山能源2028年的每股收益预计将是2025年的12倍。核电和燃气轮机领域的增长尤为强劲，该公司今年的预计市盈率为93倍，远高于IHI的14倍区间。
Doosan Enerbility's earnings per share for 2028 are expected to be 12 times as high as in 2025, according to QUICK FactSet. Growth in nuclear power and gas turbines has been particularly strong, and the company's projected price-to-earnings ratio of 93 for this year is far higher than IHI's 14-range.
IHI的核电业务在日本2011年3月地震和海啸引发福岛第一核电站熔毁事故后经历了艰难岁月。四年后，与IHI在核电领域保持密切联系的东芝曝出会计舞弊问题。
IHI's nuclear business endured difficult years following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan that triggered a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Four years later, accounting irregularities came to light at Toshiba, with which IHI had held close ties in the nuclear sector.
“尽管经历了这一切，我们仍保持了生产能力和技术能力，这创造了我们今天拥有的机会，”大泽表示。
"Maintaining our production capacity and technological capabilities despite all of that has created the opportunities we have today," Ozawa said.
瑞穗银行产业研究部分析师佐藤玲表示：“日本公司在核电领域的优势在于其业绩记录和供应能力。”IHI曾为美国佐治亚州一座西屋核电站的两个机组供应了安全壳。
Rei Sato, an analyst at Mizuho Bank's industry research department, said, "The strength of Japanese companies [in the nuclear sector] lies in their track record and supply capacity." IHI supplied containment vessels for two units of a Westinghouse nuclear plant in the U.S. state of Georgia.
“从欧洲和美国核电站制造商的角度来看，由于长期以来的合作关系，采用日本设备可能更容易，”佐藤说。
"From the perspective of European and U.S. plant manufacturers, it may be easier to adopt Japanese equipment because of their longstanding relationships," Sato said.