日本驾车者即将面临更昂贵的通勤成本,因为政府正在缩减慷慨的燃油补贴,这些补贴曾帮助消费者抵御美伊战争的冲击。
Japanese motorists are poised for a more expensive commute as the government scales back generous fuel subsidies that have helped cushion consumers from the impact of the US-Iran war.
首相高市早苗周四表示,燃油价格补贴将从12月开始逐步缩减,持续到明年春初,每月将基准零售价上调5日元(约合3美分)/升。这位日本领导人拒绝透露该机制何时会完全取消。
The fuel-price subsidy will be gradually wound back from December into early spring, raising the benchmark retail price by ¥5 (3 cents) a liter each month, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Thursday. The Japanese leader declined to say when the mechanism would be fully phased out.
该补贴将零售汽油价格维持在每升170日元左右,相当于每加仑约4.10美元,日本也为柴油和煤油提供类似支持。但该计划代价高昂。据彭博新能源财经估算,从3月中旬到9月,政府在汽油和柴油补贴上估计花费了1.2万亿日元(约合76亿美元)。
The subsidy has kept retail gasoline prices around ¥170 a liter, equivalent to about $4.10 a gallon, with Japan also providing similar support for diesel and kerosene. But the program has come at a steep cost. The government is estimated to have spent ¥1.2 trillion ($7.6 billion) subsidizing gasoline and diesel from mid-March through September, according to BloombergNEF.
日本对战争引发的能源冲击尤为脆弱,冲突前其原油需求有90%以上依赖中东。东京已动用战略储备,而该国炼油厂被迫购买更昂贵的替代供应,特别是来自美国的供应。
Japan is particularly exposed to the energy shock triggered by the war, having relied on the Middle East for more than 90% of its crude needs before the conflict. Tokyo has tapped strategic reserves, while the country’s refiners have been forced to buy more expensive alternative supplies, particularly from the US.
该燃油价格机制最初于2022年推出,当时各国经济刚从疫情中复苏,随后因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致能源市场动荡而扩大规模。在以各种形式维持一段时间后,东京在2月下旬伊朗战争爆发后大幅增加了援助力度。
The fuel-price mechanism was originally introduced in 2022 as economies emerged from the pandemic, and expanded as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy markets into turmoil. It remained in place in various forms before Tokyo sharply ramped up assistance following the start of the Iran war in late February.
这种支持力度在主要经济体中因其直接政府干预的规模而显得突出。虽然许多国家通过暂时减免燃油税等措施应对价格冲击,但东京实际上是通过吸收基准价以上的成本来保证零售价格。这因其高昂的费用和最可能的受益群体而招致批评。
That level of support stands out among major economies for the scale of direct government intervention. While many countries responded to price shocks with measures such as temporary fuel-tax cuts, Tokyo effectively guaranteed a retail price by absorbing the cost above its benchmark. That has drawn criticism over the expense and most likely beneficiaries.
“该计划每月耗资数千亿日元,额外资金来自完全由赤字国债融资的预算,”日本央行前董事、野村综合研究所执行经济学家木内登英在10月27日的报告中写道。
“The program costs hundreds of billions of yen a month, with additional funding coming from a budget financed entirely by deficit-covering bonds,” Takahide Kiuchi, a former Bank of Japan board member and executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute, wrote in an Oct. 27 note.
他形容这些补贴缺乏针对性,且不成比例地惠及重度燃料使用者。“对财政扩张的担忧也可能削弱日元,进一步增加通胀压力,”他补充道。
He described the subsidies as poorly targeted and disproportionately benefiting heavy fuel users. “Concerns over fiscal expansion can also weaken the yen, adding further inflationary pressure,” he added.
缩减补贴虽能缓解预算压力,但有风险给在经历数十年价格基本停滞后遭遇持续通胀的民众带来更多经济痛苦。代表基层消费者的非政府组织日本消费者联盟反对削减补贴。
Scaling back the subsidy offers some budget relief, but risks heaping more economic pain on people grappling with sustained inflation after decades of largely stagnant prices. The Consumer Union of Japan, a nongovernmental body that represents grassroots consumers, has opposed the subsidy cuts.
该组织共同代表原英二表示,在消费者和企业正因物价上涨和燃料成本高企而挣扎之际终止支持,“将对其生计和经营造成重大打击”。
Ending the support while consumers and businesses are struggling with higher prices and fuel costs “would deal a major blow to their livelihoods and operations,” said Eiji Hara, a co-representative of the group.
即使在削减燃料支持的同时,政府也在提前推出其他能源援助。高市早苗表示,电费和燃气费补贴将提前一个月、于12月开始实施,至2月为止为普通家庭提供约7000日元的减负。
Even as it pares back fuel support, the government is bringing forward other energy aid. Takaichi said electricity and gas bill subsidies will start a month earlier, in December, providing a typical household with about ¥7,000 in relief through February.