亚马逊云服务（AWS）将在五到十年内成为万亿美元级别的业务，得益于人工智能热潮，亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西认为，在2027年或2028年，其增长率应能达到40%或更高。这家云巨头本财年营收有望达到1840亿美元，同比增长39.3%，推动第三季度营收略低于460亿美元。“需要记住的是，全球IT支出中绝大多数（约85%）仍发生在本地数据中心，我们正处于一个10到20年的周期中，这一格局将转向云，”他在亚马逊第三季度财报电话会议上表示。
Amazon Web Services will become a trillion-dollar business in five to ten years, and thanks to the AI boom Amazon CEO Andy Jassy thinks it should be able to grow by 40 percent or more in 2027 or 2028. The cloud giant is already on track to generate $184 billion annual revenue this financial year, helped by 39.3 percent year-over-year growth that propelled Q3 revenue to a whisker short of $46 billion. “It’s important to remember that the vast majority of global IT spend, about 85 percent, is still on premises, and we’re in a 10- to 20-year cycle where that equation will flip to the cloud,” he said on Amazon's Q3 earnings call.
“传统观点一直认为，大型机或存储区域网络等关键工作负载永远不会迁移到云端，”他评论道，随后得意地指出，“这些工作负载正在迁移。”他认为人工智能也会有所帮助。贾西表示，这家云公司大约每14秒就会安装一个新的人工智能加速器，“几乎在我们安装容量的同时，客户就将它抢购一空。”贾西称，该公司的Bedrock AI服务已经是有史以来增长最快的数十亿美元级服务。
“Conventional wisdom has been that linchpin workloads like mainframes or storage area networks would never move to the cloud,” he observed, before triumphantly noting “these workloads are moving.”He thinks AI will help, too. Jassy said the cloudy concern installs a new AI accelerator “about every 14 seconds, and almost as fast as we install capacity, customers are gobbling it up.”The outfit’s Bedrock AI services is already the fastest growing multi-billion dollar service in its history, Jassy said.
核心计算和存储服务也在飙升：这位首席执行官表示，两者的收入“实现了多年来最快的增长”。贾西认为，Bedrock和核心服务的表现相互交织，因为当用户为人工智能工作负载选择AWS时，他们希望其云端推理设备“靠近他们的其他数据和应用程序”。因此，这位首席执行官表示，人工智能工作负载“必然会推动AWS核心需求，因为人工智能在强化学习、后训练和工具使用等方面需要借助核心服务，这必然会推动对AWS更广泛功能的再投资。”
Core compute and storage services are also soaring: the CEO said revenue from both “grew at their fastest rates in several years.”Jassy thinks the performance of Bedrock and core services are intertwined, because when users select AWS for AI workloads they want their cloudy inferencing rigs to be “near the rest of their data and apps.”The CEO said AI workloads therefore “can’t help but drive core AWS demand because AI uses core for work like reinforcement learning, post-training, and tool usage, which can’t help but drive reinvestment back into our broader AWS functionality.”
他认为这一模式已经奏效，因为人工智能服务的利润率已经“远远领先于”AWS核心服务在类似发展阶段所达到的水平。
He thinks this scheme is already working because margins for AI services are already “well ahead” of the figures AWS was able to achieve for its core services at a similar time in their evolution.
该公司预计2026年将进行2200亿美元的资本支出，仅上一季度就已花费759亿美元，其中大部分用于AWS。贾西表示，这家云计算巨头正在寻找更快收回基础设施投资的方法。这位首席执行官说，这并不容易。“我认为我们在AI方面看到的是我们一生中最大的变革，”他说。“如果这种加速和机遇发生在25年内，你可以将资本支出分摊到25年，那会更方便吗？是的，可能会更方便，但我们生活的世界不是这样的，机遇也不是这样的。”
The company expects to make $220 billion of capital expenditure in 2026 and already spent $75.9 billion last quarter alone, most of that on AWS. Jassy said the cloud colossus is finding ways to more quickly pay for its infrastructure investments. The CEO said it’s not easy to do that. “I think what we’re seeing with AI, it’s the biggest transformation in our lifetime,” he said. “Would it be more convenient if this type of acceleration and opportunity happened over 25 years and you could spread the CapEx over 25 years? Yeah, it might be more convenient, but that’s not the world that we live in, and that’s not the opportunity.”
“我们可以为这项计划提供资金。我认为它将永远改变亚马逊的规模。它将永远改变我们的收入，永远改变我们的自由现金流，我们将继续投资，将继续追求这一目标，以保持像今天这样重要的领导者地位。”亚马逊需要AWS来实现这一目标，因为云业务的增长速度远快于公司的零售和运营业务，后者收入仅增长6%，且利润率薄得多。
“We can fund this plan. I think it will forever change the size of Amazon. It will forever change our revenue, it will forever change our free cash flow, and we’re going to invest, and we’re going to pursue it to continue to be the significant leader like we are today.”Amazon needs AWS to land this plane, because the cloudy concern is growing much faster than the company’s retail and operations, which saw revenue rise six percent on far slimmer margins.
贾西至少可以指出，Prime Video已成为“一项拥有数百亿美元收入运行率的重要业务，且本身已实现盈利。”总体收入为1801.7亿美元。因此，如果AWS和亚马逊其他业务的各自增长率持续下去，几年后我们可能会谈论一家拥有零售副业的云计算公司。®
Jassy could at least point to Prime Video becoming “a significant business with a revenue run rate in the tens of billions of dollars, [and is] now profitable in its own right.”Overall revenue was $180.17 bilion for the quarter. So if the respective growth rates of AWS and the rest of Amazon continue, in a few years we could be talking about a cloud company with a retail side hustle. ®