冲突推高油价，美国民众在加油站感受痛楚当美国和以色列的战机于2月28日向东飞行，袭击伊朗数百个目标并击毙该国大部分领导层时，它们也无意中将世界推入了一场持续至今的石油危机，而这场危机可能会让美国总统唐纳德·特朗普及其共和党同僚在下周的中期选举中付出代价。历史上，中期选举被视为对总统及其政党的公投。在大多数情况下，控制白宫的政党会在众议院和参议院失去席位。
The conflict has driven oil prices up and that's hitting Americans at the pumps When U.S. and Israeli jets flew east on Feb. 28, striking hundreds of targets across Iran and killing much of the country's leadership, they also inadvertently catapulted the world into an oil crisis that persists today and that just might cost U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican colleagues during next week's midterm elections. Historically, the midterms are seen as a referendum on the president and his party. More often than not, the party that controls the White House loses ground in the House and Senate.
目前的民调预测民主党将夺取众议院控制权，而参议院形势过于胶着，难以预测。共和党拥有四席多数优势，这给了他们输掉一些席位、同时仍保持对参议院控制权的余地。本轮选举中，33个参议院席位将改选，共和党目前占据其中20席，民主党占据其余13席。
The polls currently predict Democrats taking control of the House, while the Senate remains too close to call. Republicans hold a four-seat majority giving them room to lose, while still retaining control of the upper chamber. This cycle, 33 seats are up for grabs, Republicans currently hold 20 of them, while Democrats hold the remaining 13.
当美国人走向投票箱时，通常萦绕心头的是国内议题，而非外交政策。
When Americans head to the ballot box, it is usually domestic issues that are at the front of mind, not foreign policy.
“外交政策对民众来说非常遥远，”益普索公共事务部主席克利福德·杨说。“归根结底，他们关心的是自己的钱包、日子怎么过，而在民众和选民心中，这两件事往往是相当分离的。”但杨表示，这一次，美国人将汽柴油高价与美国在中东的行动联系在了一起。周五，佐治亚州亚特兰大一家加油站展示的油价。
Foreign policy "is very distant for people," said Clifford Young, chair of Ipsos Public Affairs. "Ultimately what they care about are their pocketbooks and how they get along in their day-to-day lives and the two things are often fairly separate in people's minds and voters' minds." But Young says, this time, Americans are linking the high price of gas and diesel with U.S. actions in the Middle East. Gas prices are shown at a gas station in Atlanta, Ga., on Friday.
在2月27日，即美以两国发动对伊战争的前一天，油价为每桶67美元。到3月1日，价格已跃升至每桶99美元，此后八个月一直维持在接近这一水平的位置。
On Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel kickstarted their war against Iran, the price of oil was $67 US per barrel. By March 1 the price had jumped to $99 US per barrel and it has stayed pretty close to that for the eight months since.
根据美国汽车协会汇编的数据，这导致美国平均汽油价格从每加仑2.98美元攀升至4.25美元。
That has caused the average price of gas in the U.S. to climb from $2.98 US per gallon to $4.25 US per gallon, according to data compiled by the American Automobile Association.
杨表示：“这些是（特朗普）在外交政策方面做出的决定，这些决定对美国国内产生了重大影响，更具体地说，对他的政治领地、他自己的基本盘产生了重大影响。”
"These have been decisions that [Trump's] made on the foreign policy side that have significantly impacted Americans domestically and more specifically his political bailiwick, his own base," said Young.
杨表示：“特朗普做出的一个决定，大大消耗了他国内的政治资本。”事实上，根据本月早些时候发布的一项路透社/益普索民意调查，78%的受访者将普遍上涨的物价归咎于特朗普的政策。支持者于周二在拉伯克出席帕克农的集会。
"Trump made a decision that significantly eroded his political capital domestically." Indeed, according to a Reuters Ipsos poll published earlier this month, 78 per cent of people surveyed blame Trump's policies for rising prices in general. Supporters attend the rally for Paxton in Lubbock, on Tuesday.
此前，共和党和“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的基本盘曾团结在特朗普的“美国优先”议程周围，该议程的部分内容包括承诺让国家摆脱外国冲突。
The Republican and MAGA base previously rallied around Trump's "America First" agenda, which in part involved a promise to extricate the country from foreign conflicts.
起初，政府表示与伊朗的战争只会持续4到6周。但尽管展现了压倒性的军事力量，美国仍未能结束这场战争。
At first, the administration said the war with Iran would only last four to six weeks. But despite an overwhelming military display, the U.S. has been unable to end it.
曾担任美国中东问题谈判代表、现为卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员的亚伦·大卫·米勒表示：“这是一场权宜之战、一场选择之战，发动时根本没有考虑政府达成目标的能力。”
"It was a war of discretion, a war of choice, launched without any thought to the capacity of the administration's hand in order to reach its objectives," said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“它完全低估了对手反击、进行水平升级以及将地理武器化的能力，低估了对手基本上针对霍尔木兹海峡和海湾国家脆弱性的能力。”这场战争在美越发不受欢迎——根据皮尤研究中心的数据，近三分之二的美国人对这场战争表示反对。
"It completely underestimated the capacity of the adversary to respond and escalate horizontally and weaponize geography, and to basically go after the vulnerabilities of the Straight of Hormuz and the Gulf states." The war has become increasingly unpopular with Americans — according to the Pew Research Center, nearly two-third of Americans disapprove of it.
3月4日，在阿联酋富查伊拉，美以与伊朗冲突期间，富查伊拉媒体办公室称，防空系统拦截无人机后的残骸引发了富查伊拉石油工业区的火灾和浓烟升起。
Fire and smoke rise from the Fujairah oil industry zone, caused by debris after interception of a drone by air defences, according to the Fujairah media office, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, U.A.E., on March 4.
该调查显示，尽管这场冲突从一开始就普遍不受欢迎，但它在共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士中变得更加不受欢迎。
That survey reveals that while the conflict has been broadly unpopular from the start it has grown even less popular with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
当然，特朗普的外交政策不仅限于美国与伊朗的战争，他也经历了其他的得失。他最近帮助促成了哈马斯在加沙扣押的剩余人质获释，并斡旋了该武装组织与以色列之间的脆弱停火。
Of course, Trump's foreign policy extends beyond the U.S. war with Iran, and he has seen other wins and losses. He recently helped to secure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and brokered a fragile ceasefire between that militant group and Israel.
一名居民站在因俄罗斯喷气式无人机袭击而受损的公寓楼现场，背景是俄罗斯对乌克兰的攻击，地点为乌克兰哈尔科夫，时间为10月12日。
A resident stands at the site of an apartment building damaged during a Russian jet drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 12.
在一次大胆的军事行动中，美军俘获了委内瑞拉长期执政的总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗，并将其运往美国，马杜罗目前面临一系列联邦指控。华盛顿随后与马杜罗的副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯密切合作，后者现任临时总统。
And, in a daring military operation, U.S. forces captured Venezuela's longtime President Nicolás Maduro and flew him to the U.S. where he currently faces a slew of federal charges. Washington has subsequently been working closely with Maduro's Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez, who is now the interim president.
他还与包括加拿大在内的北约盟友关系紧张，并将美国从乌克兰问题上转向——最近解除对俄罗斯的制裁，试图压低石油和柴油价格。
He has also had a fractious relationship with NATO allies including Canada, and has pivoted the U.S. away from Ukraine — recently lifting sanctions on Russia, in an effort to bring down the price of oil and diesel.
然而，马里斯特/美国公共广播公司/公共广播电视台（Marist/NPR/PBS News）最近的一项民调显示，只有5%的受访美国人将外交政策视为最重要议题。34%的人表示生活成本是驱动他们投票的首要问题。
And yet, a recent poll by Marist/NPR/PBS News found that foreign policy overall was the top issue for only five per cent of Americans surveyed. Thirty-four percent said cost of living was the number one issue driving their vote.
这些中期选举将决定谁在特朗普余下的任期内掌控美国国会。选举否认已在美国主流化，这对中期选举意味着什么？
These midterm races will decide who controls U.S. Congress for the rest of Trump's presidency Election denial has gone mainstream in the U.S. What does that mean for the midterms?
这正是我们看到的——在美国选举中罕见的外交政策与国内可负担性问题的交汇。
And that’s where we see the convergence — unusual for a U.S. election — of foreign policy and domestic affordability issues.
最有可能让特朗普付出代价的，是伊朗战争。可负担性问题在本次中期选举周期中居于核心位置，油价的高涨则鲜明提醒人们，特朗普决定发动一场前任总统们回避的冲突。（来源：路透社）
It is the war in Iran that is likely to cost Trump most. The question of affordability is front and centre this midterm cycle and the price of gas is a glaring reminder of Trump's decision to start a conflict that previous presidents had avoided. With files from Reuters