共和党人正严阵以待一个惨淡的选举之夜，他们确信自己将在深红色的特朗普大本营遭遇一些以往无法想象的失利，而关键的战场选战也正处于千钧一发之际。
Republicans are bracing for a brutal election night, convinced they’re set to face some previously unthinkable losses in deep-red Trump territory as key battleground races hang on a knife’s edge.
众议院共和党人私下里讨论的不仅是他们是否会失去多数党地位，还有会输掉多少个席位。据六名参与内部对话并因讨论此事而要求匿名的知情人士透露，在曾经安全的选区中面临危险的共和党现任议员在最后几天里一直恳求党内领导层提供更多资金，以遏制颓势。参议院共和党人则为俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州和其他红色州的竞争感到了新的担忧。
House Republicans are privately discussing not just if they’ll lose their majority, but by how many seats. Imperiled GOP incumbents in once safe districts have been begging party leaders for more money in the final few days to stem the bleeding, according to six people involved in internal conversations, granted anonymity to discuss them. Senate Republicans have found new cause to worry about contests in Ohio, Kansas and other red states.
“这可能会是一个相当惨淡的夜晚，”一名参与私下对话的资深共和党人表示。同本文中的其他人一样，为了能够坦诚而言，他也要求匿名。：“一旦多米诺骨牌开始倒下，就很难停下来了。”其中三名知情人士称，一些共和党现任议员做出了一项令人侧目的紧急决定：他们在几周前就停止了自己进行民调，试图把每一分钱都省下来去影响选民，同时恳求共和党“骑兵”——从总统唐纳德·特朗普的政治运作机构到全国共和党国会委员会——赶快前来驰援。
“It could be quite a brutal evening,” said one senior Republican involved in the private conversations, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Once the dominoes start falling it becomes hard to stop them.”Some Republican incumbents made an eyebrow-raising emergency decision. They stopped doing their own polling weeks ago as they tried to save every dollar for swaying voters as they begged for the GOP cavalry to arrive from President Donald Trump’s political operation to the National Republican Congressional Committee, according to three of the people.
一名负责中期选举的共和党战略家在被问及政治环境时，仅仅回复了一段视频：一个着了火的垃圾箱被洪水冲走了。
One Republican strategist working on midterm races simply responded to a question about the environment with a video of a dumpster on fire that was being swept away by flood waters.
在距离选举日不到一周之际，面对选民对外生活成本以及特朗普政策议程某些方面的不满，共和党高层官员和议员们早就知道政治形势会很糟糕。但他们现在的处境比今年早些时候预期的还要糟糕。
Top GOP officials and lawmakers have long known the political landscape would be bad, amid voter anger over the cost of living and aspects of Trump's policy agenda. But they’re facing a worse position than they expected earlier this year, with less than one week until Election Day.
几周以来，共和党人一直担心，由于对高昂的生活成本和伊朗战争感到幻灭，曾投票支持特朗普的年轻男性（包括白人和拉美裔工人阶级选民）会选择留在家中。
Republicans for weeks have worried that young men who’d voted for Trump, including white and Hispanic working class voters, will stay home amid disillusionment with high costs and the Iran war.
仅凭这一点，就可能让民主党人在某些地区表现超出预期，此前他们在2024年失去了该投票集团的大量支持。
That alone could allow Democrats to overperform in some areas after they hemorrhaged support among that voting bloc in 2024.
本周，在竞争激烈的威斯康星州第3国会选区欧克莱尔的一家库里克快运（Kwik Trip）加油站里，以赛亚·罗梅罗（Isaiah Romero）正在给他的银色拉姆（Ram）皮卡加油。这位20岁的小伙子说，两年前在他的首次总统大选中，他把选票投给了特朗普。他对高昂油价作何评价？他看着加油机上标价为每加仑6.39美元的柴油和4.29美元的汽油说道：“我觉得这太荒谬了。”
At a Kwik Trip in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, this week in the hotly-contested 3rd District, Isaiah Romero was filling up his silver Ram truck. The 20-year-old said he cast his ballot for Trump in his first ever presidential election two years ago. His verdict on high fuel prices? “I think they’re bull,” he said as he looked over to the $6.39 per gallon diesel and $4.29 gas at the pump.
他这次还会投票吗？“不投了，”罗梅罗回答道，并补充说：“我可不是为了这个才投票的。”正当共和党高层官员们扑灭一处火苗时，地图各处又接连冒出新的火情。特朗普取消了原定于本周末在深红选区堪萨斯州和艾奥瓦州举行的现场集会，转而在最后冲刺阶段为共和党候选人举行了一系列电话集会。
Is he voting this time? “No,” Romero responded, adding: “I didn’t vote for this.”New fires have been popping up across the map just as soon as top GOP officials put out others. Trump canceled in-person rallies in deep-red Kansas and Iowa set for this weekend to instead hold a series of tele-rallies for GOP candidates in the final stretch.
“任何告诉你民主党人除了几个席位外赢不了参议院的民主党人，都是在故意压低预期，”这位资深共和党人说道。
“Any Democrats telling you they aren’t winning the Senate [besides] a couple of seats are sandbagging expectations,” the senior Republican said.
在俄亥俄州，共和党参议员乔恩·哈斯特德与前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗之间的竞选，在私下和公开民调中依然极其胶着。但据这位资深共和党人和其他两位看过内部民调的人士透露，共和党人惊恐地发现，共和党州长候选人“维韦克·拉马斯瓦米的民调数字在过去几天里断崖式下跌”，此前他播放了一则广告，片中民主党人埃米·阿克顿关系疏远的母亲称她的女儿是个骗子。阿克顿的继父曾被指控在她12岁时对其实施强奸。
In Ohio, the race between GOP Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is still incredibly close in private and public polling. But Republicans have watched with horror as GOP governor nominee “Vivek’s [Ramaswamy’s] numbers have gone off a cliff” in the last few days after he ran an ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother saying her daughter is a liar, according to the senior Republican and two others who saw the internal polling. Acton’s stepfather was charged with raping her when she was 12.
整个俄亥俄州面临的逆风对共和党人来说是个严重的问题。他们现在认为，身陷困境的共和党众议员马克斯·米勒——他面临着对其予以否认的虐待儿童和家庭暴力指控——将在一个特朗普曾以两位数优势获胜的选区中落败。
The headwinds across all of Ohio are deeply problematic for Republicans. They now believe embattled Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) — who is facing child and domestic abuse allegations that he denies — will lose in a seat Trump won by double digits.
南卡罗来纳州已成为共和党另一场意外陷入胶着的竞选战场，政治新人、参议员达琳·格雷厄姆正面对一位资金雄厚的民主党挑战者。但本月早些时候外部团体注资该竞选，且特朗普宣布将在该州举行另一场集会以激发共和党基本盘后，共和党操盘手和官员们的感觉稍好一些。
South Carolina has become another unexpectedly nailbiting race for Republicans, where political newcomer Sen. Darline Graham is facing a well-funded Democratic challenger. But GOP operatives and officials are feeling somewhat better after outside groups injected cash into the race earlier this month and Trump announced another rally in the state to energize Republicans’ base.
“比我们想象中想要的要接近得多，但我认为她能赢，”格林维尔县共和党主席杰夫·戴维斯说。
“It's a lot closer than I think we would ever want, but I think she's going to pull it out,” said Jeff Davis, chair of the Greenville County Republican Party.
但在最严峻的迹象之一中，共和党曾难以想象的担忧已开始蔓延至深红的路易斯安那州——特朗普本周宣布将在大选前夕为参议院提名人朱莉娅·莱特洛举行一场电话集会。与莱特洛关系密切的议长迈克·约翰逊将出席，因为共和党对南部各州提前投票中黑人选民和其他倾向民主党选民激增感到警惕。
But in one of the most dire signs, once-unimaginable GOP worries have started to creep about deep-red Louisiana — where Trump announced this week he will hold an election-eve tele-rally for Senate nominee Julia Letlow. Speaker Mike Johnson, who is close with Letlow, will join as Republicans have grown wary about a surge of Black voters and other Democratic-leaning voters in early voting across the South.
资深共和党人认为莱特洛会赢，但他们担心如果现状不变，她将仅以个位数优势获胜。
Senior Republicans believe Letlow will win, but they fear it will be by single digits if nothing changes.
“原本的轻松胜利变成了刀光剑影的苦战，”一位最近与莱特洛交谈过的路易斯安那州共和党人说。“如果民主党选民在选举日投票率激增，门罗将是一个漫长的夜晚，”此人补充道，并预计莱特洛将仅以6个百分点的优势获胜，而两年前特朗普在该州以22个百分点的优势获胜。
“The cakewalk turned into a knife fight,” said one Louisiana Republican who has talked with Letlow recently. “If Democrat turnout surges on Election Day, it’ll be a long night in Monroe,” the person added, and they expect Letlow to win by just 6 points in a state Trump won by 22 points two years ago.
在另一个令路易斯安那州共和党人痛心的事态发展中，共和党团体甚至在一个安全的红色、经过精心划分选区的席位上发动了一场惊人的金钱战——那里正在上演一场惨烈的共和党内部初选，对阵双方是曾获特朗普背书的州参议员布莱克·米格斯，以及约翰逊的前牧师、州参议员里克·埃德蒙兹。成长俱乐部周四又向该竞选注资22万美元。共和党担心这场混乱的竞选将拖入12月的决选。
In another painful development for Republicans in Louisiana, GOP groups have even started an eye-popping spending war in a safe red gerrymandered seat — where a bitter Republican-on-Republican primary is unfolding between state Sen. Blake Miguez, who was formerly endorsed by Trump, and state Sen. Rick Edmonds, Johnson’s former pastor. Club for Growth Club poured another $220,000 into the race Thursday. Republicans fear the messy race is poised for a December runoff.
共和党全国委员会发言人娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷（Natalie Baldassarre）表示：“政客新闻网（POLITICO）那本可悲而又微不足道的失败战略家名片夹里的人，根本不知道自己在说些什么。如果他们真的相信自己所说的话，就应该走出阴影，为他们这些脑残的言论署上名字。”
"POLITICO's sad little rolodex of loser strategists have no idea what they're talking about, and if they really believe what they're saying they should come out of the shadows and put a name to their brain-dead comments,” said RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre.
全美共和党参议员委员会发言人乔安娜·罗德里格斯（Joanna Rodriguez）表示：“在共和党人专注于改善生活成本和让我们的国家更安全的切实解决方案的同时，民主党人却提名了一帮激进分子，他们企图加税、强迫每个人接受政府医疗保健，并将罪犯放上街头。”
“While Republicans have focused on real solutions to improve costs of living and make our nation safer, Democrats have nominated a gang of radicals who want to raise taxes, force everyone on government healthcare, and release criminals onto the streets,” said Joanna Rodriguez, spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
在众议院方面，共和党人正严阵以待，准备迎接一个惨淡的夜晚。但为了防止真正的灾难发生，他们长期以来一直在一些更红的共和党选区投入资金。全国共和党国会委员会发言人迈克·马里内拉（Mike Marinella）表示，该委员会与各竞选团队和共和党全国委员会合作，在最初未被评为竞争激烈的共和党掌控选区提前发起了协同广告投放，其中包括由众议员杰夫·赫德（科罗拉多州）、比尔·胡伊津加（密歇根州）、罗布·威特曼（弗吉尼亚州）、迈克·特纳（俄亥俄州）和莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹（得克萨斯州）代表的选区。
On the House side, Republicans are bracing for a brutal night. But they’ve long been spending in some redder GOP districts to forestall a true disaster. Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the NRCC, said that the committee worked in partnership with the campaigns and the RNC to launch coordinated advertising early in GOP-held districts not initially rated as competitive, including those represented by Reps. Jeff Hurd (Colo.), Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Rob Wittman (Va.), Mike Turner (Ohio), and Monica De La Cruz (Texas).
全国共和党国会委员会于8月上旬开始播出协同广告，比民主党国会竞选委员会早了一个多月。全国共和党国会委员会还在100多个选区进行了民意调查，这是一个令人瞠目结舌的数字，因为他们致力于了解大火已经蔓延到了多深的红色阵地，并确保将资源调配到需要的地方。
The NRCC began airing coordinated ads in early August, more than a month before the DCCC. The NRCC also conducted polling in more than 100 districts, an eye-popping number, as they worked to see how far the fires had spread into red terrain and make sure they were moving resources where they were needed.
共和党人仍认为他们能够击败众议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯（民主党-华盛顿州）和加布·瓦斯奎兹（民主党-新墨西哥州），同时夺下即将退休的众议员贾里德·戈登（民主党-缅因州）的席位。但据四位知情人士透露，共和党内部认为北卡罗来纳州开放的第11选区几乎已无望拿下，特朗普以两位数优势获胜的其他几个深红选区也是如此。
Republicans still think they can unseat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) and Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.), while flipping retiring Rep. Jared Golden’s (D-Maine) seat. But privately, Republicans believe North Carolina’s open 11th District is close to gone, as are several other deep-red seats Trump won by double digits, according to four people with knowledge of the situation.
他们对能否击败众议员唐·戴维斯（民主党-北卡罗来纳州）也没有信心，尽管共和党在今年早些时候重划选区时原本认为这将是一个轻松翻转的席位。这已成为历史上花费最巨众议院竞选。
And they’re still not confident they’ll beat Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) in a seat the GOP thought would be an easy flip when they redrew it early this year. It’s become the most expensive House race in history.
据这四人透露，在肯塔基州第6选区，特朗普2024年以15个百分点优势获胜，但该选区的共和党候选人正勉强维持局面。
The Republican in Kentucky’s 6th district, where Trump won by 15 points in 2024, is barely hanging on, according to the four people.
一位参与相关竞选对话的共和党官员表示，即使在共和党重划后对己方有利的南德克萨斯州选区，共和党几天前已达到这样一个地步：无论再投入多少新资金都无法改变即将到来的灾难性局面。
Even in the South Texas districts the GOP redrew in their favor, Republicans reached the point days ago where no amount of new money is going to change the upcoming catastrophe, said one Republican official involved in conversations about those races.
约翰逊周四前往明尼苏达州，为共和党众议员布拉德·芬斯塔德主持筹款活动。共和党正竭力巩固这位身处特朗普优势12个百分点选区的议员的竞选。芬斯塔德本周在接受《政治报》（POLITICO）采访时表示，他已向资深共和党人警告数周，称民主党团体正向其所在的明尼苏达州南部选区倾注巨资。
Johnson traveled to Minnesota on Thursday to headline a fundraiser for GOP Rep. Brad Finstad, who Republicans are scrambling to shore up in a +12 Trump district. Finstad told POLITICO in an interview this week that he had warned senior Republicans for weeks about Democratic groups pouring money into the race in his southern Minnesota district.
芬斯塔德说：“我们向任何愿意听的人都提出过这事。从大局看，人们会说：‘哦，你赢了18个百分点，你没事。’但我们这些在明尼苏达州的人知道，这个选区一向带有一种独立倾向。”
“We raised that with anybody and everybody that would want to hear it,” Finstad said. “From a global perspective, people were like, ‘Well, you won by 18, you’re fine.’ And, you know, those of us in Minnesota know that this district has always had kind of an independent streak to it.”
与此同时，参议院民主党人对其前景持乐观态度，但公共和私人民调显示，在几乎整个战场州版图上，支持率都处于误差范围内——意味着这些州可能向任何一方倾斜。
Senate Democrats, meanwhile, are upbeat at their prospects, but public and private polling across close to the entire battleground map is running within the margin of error — meaning those states could break either way.
“比起他们，我宁愿是我们。但如果任何人告诉你他们知道将会发生什么，那他们就是在满口胡言，”一名参议院民主党高层运作人员表示，“一切都咬得很紧。”一些共和党人则从至少这一切很快就会结束这一事实中寻求慰藉。
“I would rather be us than them. But if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen, they’re full of shit,” one senior Senate Democratic operative said. “Everything is close.”And some Republicans are taking solace in the fact that at least it’ll all soon be over.
“我能看到隧道尽头的亮光了，”一名共和党战略师说，他所参与的竞选活动正朝着有利于民主党方向发展。“那可能是一辆半挂卡车，但至少我能看见它。”
“I can see the light at the end of the tunnel,” said a GOP strategist working on a campaign that is trending toward Democrats. “It might be a semi-truck, but at least I can see it.