摩根士丹利的保罗·普萨伊拉表示，随着投资者寻求从人工智能交易中分散配置，中欧和东欧提供了新兴市场中最具吸引力的机会之一，这得益于该地区与欧盟关系的改善以及投资管道的不断增长。
Central and Eastern Europe offers one of the most attractive opportunities in emerging markets as investors look to diversify from the artificial intelligence trade, supported by improving ties with the European Union and a growing pipeline of investment, according to Morgan Stanley’s Paul Psaila.
“我们非常看好中欧。在我看来，波兰和匈牙利极具吸引力，”普萨伊拉在接受采访时说。他与他人共同管理摩根士丹利的全球新兴市场策略，包括规模7.74亿美元的可持续新兴市场股票基金。“我们最大的超配实际上是波兰。”据彭博汇编的数据，该可持续新兴市场基金今年回报率为18%，跑赢了MSCI新兴市场指数。过去三年，该基金的表现超过了84%的同类基金。
“We’re very bullish on central Europe. Poland and Hungary to me look extremely compelling,” said Psaila, who co-manages Morgan Stanley’s global emerging-market strategies including the $774 million Sustainable Emerging Markets Equity Fund, said in an interview. “Our largest overweight is actually Poland.”The Sustainable EM fund has returned 18% this year, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund has outperformed 84% of peers over the past three years.
根据基金情况说明书，尽管该基金最大的持仓是亚洲科技巨头台积电、三星电子和SK海力士，但其对台湾和韩国的配置与基准一致。该基金低配中国，超配波兰、南非、墨西哥和匈牙利。
While its largest holdings are the Asian tech giants Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd., Samsung Electronics Co Ltd. and SK Hynix Inc., it’s weightings for Taiwan and South Korea are in line with the benchmark, according to a fund fact sheet. It’s underweight China, and overweight Poland, South Africa, Mexico and Hungary.
在经历了多年政治紧张导致资金被暂停或延迟之后，中欧和东欧正受益于与欧盟关系的改善。匈牙利的BUX指数和波兰的WIG 20指数今年迄今均飙升超过30%，远远超过标普500指数13%的涨幅和斯托克欧洲600指数9%的涨幅。
Central and Eastern Europe is benefiting from improving relations with the EU after years of political tensions that led to funding being halted or delayed. Hungary’s BUX Index and Poland’s WIG 20 have each soared more than 30% so far this year, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 13% gain and the Stoxx Europe 600’s 9% advance.
普萨伊拉表示，来自西欧和亚洲公司的投资正在增加该地区的项目管道。他补充说，匈牙利加入欧元区的雄心可能带来更低的利率和借贷成本，从而支持更多投资和经济增长。
Investment from Western European and Asian companies are adding to the region’s project pipeline, Psaila said. Hungary’s ambition to join the euro could bring lower interest rates and borrowing costs, supporting more investment and economic growth, he added.
他表示，随着人工智能持续塑造新兴市场股市，中东欧是实现投资组合多元化的一条途径。该基金仍然超配人工智能相关公司，尤其是建设人工智能系统所需的芯片和技术供应商，同时关注美国和中国各自发展的人工智能生态系统。
Central and Eastern Europe is one way to diversify portfolios as artificial intelligence continues to shape emerging-market equities, he said. The fund remains overweight AI-related companies, particularly suppliers of the chips and technology needed to build AI systems, while monitoring the separate ecosystems developing in the US and China.
“在新兴市场的背景下，我们仍然超配人工智能交易，”派拉说。他将这一敞口描述为人工智能的“卖铲子”生意，并补充说，尽管这轮交易可能正接近顶峰，但团队仍然预计未来盈利强劲。
“We are still overweight to the AI trade in the context of emerging markets,” Psaila said. He described the exposure as the “picks and shovels” of AI, adding that while the trade may be approaching its peak, the team still sees strong earnings going forward.
派拉还对南非股市持温和乐观态度，理由是当地拥有管理良好、业务遍及整个非洲大陆的公司，尤其是标准银行集团。他说，贷款机构Capitec和移动电话运营商Vodacom集团也颇具吸引力。
Psaila is also moderately positive on South African equities, citing well-managed companies with wide reach throughout the continent, particularly Standard Bank Group Ltd.. Lender Capitec Ltd. and mobile-phone operator Vodacom Group Ltd. are also attractive, he said.
“有积极的结构性改革，有利的贸易条件，而且我认为管理层也很优秀，”他说。“可以公允地说，我们温和看涨。”
“There are positive structural reforms and you have positive terms of trade, plus I think good management,” he said. “It’s fair to say that we’re mildly bullish.”