投资者在经历最新一轮人工智能板块抛售后，对投资组合中的集中度风险感到担忧，不妨关注发达市场——尤其是日本和欧洲。上周的市场表现再次凸显了一个持续已久的趋势。人工智能股票遭受重创——iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）上周下跌3%，10月份累计跌幅超过10%——而科技板块以外的股票似乎状况良好。最新的回调也凸显了多元化投资组合的重要性，这种组合既能在人工智能行情上涨时同步攀升，又能抵消该主题最剧烈的回撤。
Investors wary of concentration risk in their portfolios following the latest rout in the artificial intelligence trade could take a look at developed markets — especially in Japan and Europe. Last week's action underscored again a trend that has been ongoing for some time. While AI stocks have been getting punished — with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) down 3% last week and off more than 10% in October — those outside the tech sector appear to be in good shape. The latest pullback also stresses the importance of a diversified portfolio, one that can continue to climb alongside the AI trade while also offsetting some of the theme's sharpest drawdowns.
对许多人来说，这是一项艰巨的任务，因为科技股在标普500指数中的权重约为40%。放眼海外也会发现类似问题：由于韩国和台湾地区芯片制造商的绝对主导地位，这两个市场合计占iShares新兴市场ETF（EEM）的近一半权重。EEM在10月份下跌逾6%。iShares MSCI韩国ETF（EWY）本月下跌近14%，而iShares MSCI台湾ETF（EWT）下跌接近5%。
It's a hard task for many, given that tech alone represents a roughly 40% weighting in the S & P 500. A look abroad reveals a similar problem: Together, South Korea and Taiwan account for nearly half of the iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) , thanks to the sheer dominance of those countries' chipmakers. EEM is down by more than 6% in October. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is down almost 14% this month, while the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) is off close to 5%.
摩根资产管理的David Lebovitz表示，该公司对日本和欧洲持建设性的长期看法，这位全球市场策略师称，在未来10到15年里，这两个市场都能作为美国股票的补充，因为它们各自拥有除人工智能之外的持久趋势来驱动上涨。当然，投资者仍需警惕近期风险。Lebovitz称，该公司目前超配日本，但在欧洲维持中性配置，正在密切关注当前波动中是否出现有吸引力的入场点。
JPMorgan Asset Management's David Lebovitz said that the firm has a constructive long-term outlook in both Japan and Europe, which the global market strategist said could act as complements to U.S. stocks over the next 10 to 15 years as they each have durable trends outside of AI to drive upside. To be sure, there are still near-term risks that investors should be aware of. Lebovitz said that the firm is currently overweight Japan, but is market weight in Europe where it is carefully watching for attractive entry points amid some of the ongoing volatility.
他补充说，在韩国和台湾地区市场快速上涨后，该公司已减少了对新兴市场的超配敞口。这大致基于传统的60/40股债投资组合，其中股票部分的40个百分点配置于美国市场。
He added that the firm reduced its overweight exposure to emerging markets, following the rapid ascent in South Korea and Taiwan. This is roughly based on a traditional portfolio of 60/40 stocks and bonds, with 40 percentage points in the stock sleeve allocated toward U.S. equities, and 20 percentage points in non-U.S. names.
在非美国股票方面，配置比例为20个百分点。他表示，非美国配置通常在日本、欧洲和新兴市场之间均衡分配。不过，支撑各个市场的因素各不相同。以下是看好日本和欧洲的理由。
The non-U.S. allocation is typically evenly split between Japan, Europe and emerging markets, he said. Still, there are different factors supporting each market. Here is the case for Japan and Europe.
日本 日本股市今年享受顺风，iShares MSCI日本ETF（EWJ）上涨逾17%。虽然这不及韩国ETF涨幅62%、台湾ETF涨幅69%，但日本市场在各板块的权重配置更为均衡，使其在面对另外两个市场的剧烈波动时更具防御性。该国最大的变化之一在于公司治理的变革，包括鼓励企业消除闲置现金、更加聚焦股东回报，旨在支撑增长。
Japan Japan equities have enjoyed a tailwind this year, with the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) higher by more than 17%. While that falls short of the advance of the South Korea ETF, up 62%, or the Taiwan ETF, up 69%, Japan's market also has a more balanced weighting across sectors that makes it more defensive against some of the wild swings in the other two. Among the biggest changes in the country have to do with changes to corporate governance, including the encouragement of companies to eliminate idle cash and focus more on shareholder returns, that's meant to support growth.
Lebovitz还强调了日本名义增长前景的改善，即未经通胀调整的现价增长可支撑盈利并提振股票回报。此外，他表示，日元兑美元相对低廉，即便利润率持续拖累，也可能为预期回报贡献2.4%。日本还能为投资者提供人工智能敞口，得益于其科技公司的实力及制造业，有助于该国开始追赶其他国家。
Lebovitz also highlighted the improving nominal growth story in Japan, meaning that the growth measured in current prices before adjusting for inflation can support earnings and boost equity returns. What's more, a cheap yen relative to the dollar could also contribute 2.4% to expected returns, even if margins continue to be a drag, he said. Japan can also offer investors AI exposure, thanks to the strength of its technology companies and its manufacturing sector that can help the country start to catch up to other nations.
欧洲 Lebovitz表示，该机构对欧洲的看法也转为更加建设性，欧洲企业可继续增长，且其股票相对于美国估值更低。他补充称，货币走强预计将为预期回报贡献约0.5个百分点。这也使投资者获得与美国市场不同的风险敞口组合。欧洲与工业和制造业相关的企业，而非科技股，可能继续受益于当地国防开支的增加。
The case for Europe Lebovitz said the firm has also turned more constructive on Europe, where companies can continue to grow and its stocks are less expensive relative to the U.S. A stronger currency is expected to contribute about 0.5 percentage points to expected returns, he added. It also gives investors a different mix of exposures compared to the U.S. market. Instead of tech, companies tied to industrial and manufacturing businesses in Europe could continue to benefit from the ramp up in defense spending there.
当然，欧洲市场也面临自身的挑战，即能源危机和政治风险，以及利率上升的威胁。这让一些投资者在增加敞口前选择等待更好的入场时机。Osaic首席市场策略师Philip Blancato表示，他有意增加对欧洲的敞口，但表示将暂缓行动，直到该地区在人工智能政策方面有更清晰的应对方案。实质上，在市场日益集中于科技板块、而更广泛市场显示出开始走出独立行情迹象之际，对非美国股票进行深思熟虑的配置，可能是投资者投资组合中审慎的一环。
To be sure, Europe's market also offers its own challenges, namely an energy crisis and political risks , as well as the threat of rising interest rates . This has some investors waiting for a better entry point before increasing exposure. Philip Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic, said he's interested in upping his exposure to Europe, but said he is holding off until there's better clarity around how the region tackles AI policy. In essence, with markets increasingly concentrated in tech at a time when the broader market is showing signs of starting to break away, a thoughtful allocation to non-U.S. equities could be a prudent part of investors' portfolios.
“市场正日益区分更广泛人工智能生态系统中的不同参与者，”Lebovitz表示。“因此，我认为正在发生的事情是一种健康的发展，可以说正在为这波反弹注入更多活力，而不是发出可能即将见顶的信号。”
"Markets are increasingly differentiating between the different players in the broader AI ecosystem," Lebovitz said. "And so, I see what's happening here as kind of a healthy development, and arguably providing a bit more life to this rally, as opposed to something that's signaling that the end may be near."