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佛罗里达州共和党参议员几乎不开展竞选活动,却仍保持领先Florida’s GOP Senator Is Barely Campaigning—and Still Leading

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阿什莉·穆迪(左)与安吉·尼克松 《母亲琼斯》;比尔·克拉克/CQ-Roll Call/盖蒂图片社;路易斯·桑塔纳/《坦帕湾时报》/ZUMAAshley Moody, left, and Angie Nixon Mother Jones; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call/Getty; Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA

上周我在 X 上浏览时,看到了一场“动员选民”集会的信息,佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯和美国参议员阿什利·穆迪将出席,穆迪下周将竞选连任。活动地点在坦帕湾地区,也就是我居住的地方,定于本周一举行。值得注意的是,新闻媒体“仅限受邀”参加。

Scrolling through X last week, I came across information for a “Get Out The Vote” rally with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and US Sen. Ashley Moody, who is running for reelection next week. The event would be located in Tampa Bay, where I live, and was scheduled for this Monday. Notably, the press was allowed “by invite only.”

穆迪的竞选团队从未回复我发出的多条寻求邀请的信息。其他记者也注意到了这一反常的媒体披露方式。《佛罗里达凤凰报》记者米奇·佩里在 X 上写道:“穆迪竞选团队本周期经常在活动结束后才向记者发送新闻稿,今天他们却在挑选想让谁来报道她今晚在圣彼得斯堡的集会。” 她的竞选团队后来在社交媒体上发布了活动照片,画面显示穆迪身后是佛罗里达州旗,正在向满座欢呼的观众发表讲话。

Moody’s campaign never responded to my multiple messages seeking an invitation to the rally. Other reporters noted the curious press disclosure. “The Moody campaign has often this cycle sent press releases to reporters after they do events,” wrote Florida Phoenix reporter Mitch Perry on X, “today they’re choosing who they want to cover her rally in St. Pete tonight.”Her campaign later posted images from the event on social media, showing Moody, Florida’s flag behind her, speaking as a crowded room cheered for her.

感谢我的朋友州长 @RonDeSantis 莅临皮尼拉斯县,鼓励大家出来投票!能与你并肩作战、担任佛罗里达州检察长,将佛罗里达打造成全美自由的灯塔,是我的荣幸。这正是…… pic.twitter.com/RBgGtBqN4D — 阿什利·穆迪 (@AshleyMoodyFL) 2026年10月27日对集会保持沉默只是穆迪在最近几个月竞选期间刻意保持低调的一个例子。

Thank you to my friend Governor @RonDeSantis for joining us in Pinellas County to encourage folks to get out and VOTE! It was an honor to fight alongside you as Florida’s Attorney General as we turned Florida into the beacon of freedom for the rest of America. That is what’s… pic.twitter.com/RBgGtBqN4D — Ashley Moody (@AshleyMoodyFL) October 27, 2026 The reticence around the rally is just one example of how Moody has maintained a deliberately low profile in recent months on the campaign trail.

她拒绝与对手、佛罗里达州众议员、民主社会主义者安吉·尼克松进行辩论,解释说她不会“给尼克松的社会主义纲领提供舞台或任何关注”。她基本上避开了媒体,当华盛顿特区和佛罗里达州的记者接近她时,她甚至直接走开离去。据《Creative Loafing》报道,当一名记者在最近于佛罗里达州印第安罗克斯海滩举行的一次活动中询问她关于Flock摄像头的问题时,“她的安保人员在她离开时亲自阻拦了这名记者跟随她。”

She declined to debate her opponent, Florida state representative and Democratic socialist Angie Nixon, explaining that she would not “give a stage or any attention” to Nixon’s socialist platform. She has largely avoided the press, literally walking away when reporters in Washington, DC, and in Florida approached her. When a reporter asked her about Flock cameras at a recent event in Indian Rocks Beach, Fla., Creative Loafing reported, “her security detail physically blocked this reporter from following her as she left.”

然而,一些民调显示穆迪领先几个百分点。“当一个社会主义者试图接管你的州并登上美国参议院的讲台时,”她对福克斯新闻说,“我们不会让这种事发生。我们正在努力工作,冲刺终点线。”

And yet, some polls show Moody winning by a few points. “When you have a socialist coming to try and take over your state and be at the top of the ticket, and walk on the United States Senate floor,” she told FOX News , “we won’t let it happen. We’re working hard, running to the finish line.”

穆迪的竞选团队似乎也在选择演讲场合,确保她面临面临无准备情况的风险较低,例如在上周于迈尔斯堡举行的特朗普集会上发表讲话,以及只在由她的支持者参加的小型场所发言。《Politico》8月报道称:“在1月份州共和党年度会议上的一次露面中,穆迪从讲台上向基层共和党人发表了讲话。但与其他几位出席的共和党民选官员不同,她在简短演讲后没有与人群交流,而是从侧门离开。”

Moody’s campaign also appears to choose speaking engagements where she is at low risk of facing an unscripted situation, such as giving remarks at the Trump rally in Fort Myers last week and speaking at smaller venues only attended by her supporters. “During an appearance at the state GOP’s annual meeting in January, Moody addressed rank-and-file Republicans from the stage,” Politico reported in August. “But unlike several other elected GOP officials who attended, she didn’t mingle with the crowd after her brief speech, instead leaving from a side entrance.”

《Politico》还描述了6月份类似的匆忙离场:当时穆迪和现任佛罗里达州参议员里克·斯科特一起出席新闻发布会,抗议坎耶“坎耶”·韦斯特的演唱会。“但她在斯科特和前州长查理·克里斯特接受记者提问前就离开了。”

Politico also described a similar hasty exit in June, when Moody and incumbent Florida Sen. Rick Scott appeared together at a press conference protesting a Kanye “Ye” West concert. “But she left before Scott and former Gov. Charlie Crist took questions from reporters.”

穆迪的谨慎态度在9月进一步加强,当时据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网(CBS News)报道,一份泄露的大陪审团报告发现,罗恩·德桑蒂斯州长的政府将本应用于资助贫困儿童医疗保健的1000万美元转移给了“多个组织,最终落入两个政治行动委员会和佛罗里达州共和党的银行账户”。报告称,作为当时的州检察长,穆迪的办公室参与了这笔资金的转移。穆迪在X平台发帖称,她的办公室“对资金将如何使用毫不知情”。

Moody’s caution increased in September, when a leaked grand jury report that found Gov. Ron DeSantis’s administration diverted $10 million meant to fund health care for poor children to “multiple organizations before eventually landing in the bank accounts of two political action committees and the Republican Party of Florida,” CBS News reported . As the state Attorney General at the time, Moody’s office was involved in the transfer of funds, the report states. In an X post , Moody said her office “had no knowledge of how funds would be spent.”

“如果共和党选民投票率非常稳固,尽管特朗普的支持率在下降,而她能够控制自己的信息传递,只专注于几件事,比如负担能力问题和攻击尼克松,她应该能够获胜。”

“If Republican turnout is very solid despite Trump’s declining approval, and she’s able to control her message and just focus on a handful of things like affordability and attacking Nixon, she ought to be able to win.”

本周,中佛罗里达大学政治学教授奥布里·朱埃特告诉我,穆迪之所以能在竞选途中采取更为谨慎的策略,是因为她相对于尼克松拥有多项优势。首先是注册选民的绝对数量。自2020年以来,共和党在注册选民上建立了150万的舒适领先优势。其次是资金;根据最新的竞选财务披露,穆迪筹集了超过2000万美元,而尼克松为850万美元。

Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, told me this week, that Moody can afford to take a more guarded approach on the campaign trail because she has several advantages over Nixon. First of all, there are the sheer numbers of registered voters. Since 2020, Republicans have built a comfortable advantage of 1.5 million voters over registered Democrats. Then there is the money; according to the most recent campaign finance disclosures, Moody has raised more than $20 million , compared to Nixon’s $8.5 million .

此外,她还获得了德桑蒂斯的背书,后者在佛罗里达州共和党人中的受欢迎程度依然很高。德桑蒂斯在马可·鲁比奥成为美国国务卿后,于2025年任命她为参议员。穆迪在2019年至去年期间担任佛罗里达州检察长。这位来自佛罗里达州普兰特城的第五代佛罗里达人,还是一名前检察官和巡回法院法官。“如果共和党选民投票率非常稳固,尽管特朗普的支持率在下降,而她能够控制自己的信息传递,只专注于几件事,比如负担能力问题和攻击尼克松,”朱埃特说,“她应该能够获胜。”

Plus she’s been endorsed by DeSantis, whose popularity among Florida Republicans is still high. DeSantis appointed her to the Senate in 2025 after Marco Rubio became the US Secretary of State. Moody was Florida’s Attorney General between 2019 and last year. Originally from Plant City, Fla., the fifth-generation Floridian is also a former prosecutor and circuit court judge. “If Republican turnout is very solid despite Trump’s declining approval, and she’s able to control her message and just focus on a handful of things like affordability and attacking Nixon,” Jewett said, “she ought to be able to win.”

与此同时,尼克松的竞选活动则截然不同。这位工会组织者、来自杰克逊维尔的民主党州众议员在全州各地举行了数十场大型集会,并持续接受媒体采访,包括我们自己的阿尔·莱特森。她获得了巴拉克·奥巴马、伯尼·桑德斯和亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯等民主党重量级人物的背书。她还批评穆迪在竞选活动中回避露面,给她起了个绰号“缺席的阿什莉”:阿什莉·穆迪声称她“跑遍了全州,一直在跟媒体交谈”。显然,只是不包括以Y结尾的日子。

Meanwhile, Nixon’s campaign is strikingly different. The union organizer and Democratic state representative from Jacksonville has held dozens of large rallies across the state and is continuously speaking to the press, including our own Al Letson . She’s been endorsed by Democratic royalty like Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She’s also called Moody out for her evasion on the campaign trail, nicknaming her Absent Ashley : Ashley Moody claims she's been “all over this state talking to the media.”Apparently, just not on days ending in Y.

阿什莉,我随时准备好跟你讨论佛罗里达人面临的问题。辩论的邀请依然有效。

I'm ready to talk about the issues facing Floridians whenever you are, Ashley. The invitation to debate still stands. #angieforflorida pic.twitter.com/XhJT241elW

angieforflorida pic.twitter.com/XhJT241elW——州众议员安吉·尼克松(@AngieNixon)2026年10月22日这种程度的公开露面也可能让候选人面临失言的风险。在上周末接受哥伦比亚广播公司采访时,一名记者问尼克松古巴是否生活在独裁统治之下。尼克松的回答是:“这是人们告诉我的。我从未去过古巴,所以我只能相信他们的话。”她的回答引发了民主党和共和党人的一致抨击,包括穆迪,她在X上发帖称:“社会主义者安吉连古巴是不是独裁都答不上来?我想现在我们知道她为什么投票反对佛罗里达州要求学校教授共产主义危害的法律了。”

— State Rep. Angie Nixon (@AngieNixon) October 22, 2026 This level of accessibility can also put candidates at the risk of a misstep. In a CBS interview last weekend, a reporter asked Nixon if Cuba was living under a dictatorship. Nixon’s response: “That is what people have told me. I have never been to Cuba, and so I will have to take their word for it.”Her answer prompted backlash from Democrats and Republicans alike, including Moody, who posted on X : “Socialist Angie can’t answer if Cuba is a dictatorship? I guess now we know why she voted against the Florida law to require schools to teach the dangers of communism.”

但即使尼克松在周二落败,她也为民主党人提供了一份如何在佛罗里达州高效竞选的蓝图,而她筹款的能力就是部分证据。在最近一个季度,她筹集的资金超过了穆迪。“无论如何,民主党如果想继续改善他们在佛罗里达州的战绩,就必须审视她的政治路线,”在该州拥有数十年经验的政治分析人士苏珊·麦克马纳斯说。“她确实真正打动了那些厌倦了等待变革发生的人。”

But even if Nixon does not win on Tuesday, she has provided Democrats with a blueprint on how to efficiently campaign in Florida, and some evidence of this is in her ability to raise money. She brought in more than Moody in the latest quarter. “No matter what, the Democratic party is going to have to look at her approach to politics if they want to continue to better their record in Florida,” said Susan MacManus, a political analyst with decades of experience in the state. “She’s just really tapped into people who are tired of waiting for change to happen.”

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