美联储需要至少再加息两次才能控制通胀，达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根周五表示，这是自美联储主席凯文·沃什5月上任以来，美国央行官员提供的最明确的利率指引之一。
The Federal Reserve needs to raise rates at least two more times to get inflation under control, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Friday, in some of the most explicit rate guidance offered by a US central banker since Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh took the helm in May.
洛根在为戴维森学院学生准备的演讲稿中说：“鉴于当前前景，对我来说依然清楚的是，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）需要实施至少两次、每次25个基点的加息。”“在此之后，依我之见，暂停并审视经济和金融发展以确定可能适当的进一步行动将是合理的。”洛根本周随联邦公开市场委员会大多数成员以10比2的票数决定，将短期美国利率维持在目前3.75%-4.00%的区间，尽管委员会表示经济强劲、通胀过高。
"It remains clear to me, given the current outlook, that the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases," Logan said in remarks prepared for delivery to students at Davidson College, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "After that, it would make sense in my view to pause and examine economic and financial developments to determine what further action may be appropriate." Logan joined the majority of the FOMC in a 10-2 vote this week to leave short-term US interest rates in their current 3.75%-4.00% range, even as it said the economy is strong and inflation too high.
作为美联储决策者中较为鹰派的人物，洛根认为这一举措与她的观点并不矛盾，即目标利率至少应再高出半个百分点，才能对经济形成足够限制，使通胀重回美联储2%的目标。
For Logan, among the more hawkish of Fed policymakers, the move isn't inconsistent with her view that the target rate should be at least half a percentage point higher in order to restrict the economy enough to get inflation headed back to the Fed's 2% goal.
洛根说：“金融市场因科技投资前景和地缘政治发展的消息而出现波动。”“在这样的环境下，更渐进地调整政策有助于家庭、企业和市场参与者适应更高利率，并降低经济活动不必要地更急剧恶化的风险。”洛根表示，重要的是美联储要让其政策终点变得清晰——这一观点与沃什坚持的“美联储只应在危机时期提供此类指引”形成对比。
"Financial markets have been volatile in response to news on the technology investment outlook and geopolitical developments," Logan said. "In such an environment, adjusting policy more gradually can help households, businesses and market participants adapt to higher rates and reduce the risk that economic activity deteriorates more sharply than necessary." It's important that the Fed make its policy destination clear though, Logan said -- a view that contrasts with Warsh's insistence that the Fed should only deliver such guidance in crisis times.
首先，洛根认为金融状况正在为经济增长提供顺风，并将近期长期借贷成本的上升归因于对更强劲增长和更高利率的预期。
For one thing, Logan sees financial conditions as delivering a tailwind to economic growth, and attributes the recent rise in longer-term borrowing costs to an expectation for stronger growth and higher interest rates.
“较高的市场利率更多是传递出投资者认为货币政策仍有工作要做这一信号，而非对经济活动构成独立的逆风，”她说。“跳过一次会议并不会改变美联储的政策终点。”
"The higher market rates are more a message that investors believe monetary policy has work to do than an independent headwind for activity," she said. Skipping a meeting, she said, does not change the Fed's policy destination.
“只要市场参与者理解联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的政策计划，每次加息的确切时机对大多数借款人所支付的长期利率影响甚微，”她说。
"As long as market participants understand the FOMC’s policy plans, the precise timing of each rate increase has little effect on the longer-term rates most borrowers pay," she said.