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凯雷、KKR准备逢低抢购贷款Carlyle, KKR Get Ready to Snatch Up Bargain Loans

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凯雷集团、KKR 公司和橡树资本管理公司等资产管理机构正准备抓住机会,买入价格日益低廉的美国杠杆贷款。

Carlyle Group Inc., KKR & Co. and Oaktree Capital Management are among the money managers hoping to pounce on US leveraged loans increasingly selling at bargain prices.

记者:Rachel Graf、Scott Carpenter 和 Aaron Weinman 凯雷集团 KKR 公司据知情人士透露,这三家公司正考虑购买贷款并将其打包成称为抵押贷款债券(CLO)的债券。许多其他基金管理人也在考虑做同样的事:他们设立了创纪录数量的短期信用额度(即仓储融资额度),用于购买贷款以组建 CLO。据巴克莱银行策略师统计,截至最新统计,此类开放的额度约有 286 个。

By Rachel Graf, Scott Carpenter and Aaron Weinman Carlyle Group Inc. KKR & Co. The three firms are considering buying loans and packaging them into bonds known as collateralized loan obligations, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Many other fund managers are looking at doing the same: They’ve set up a near-record number of short-term lines of credit, known as warehouse lines, to purchase loans for CLOs, with about 286 open as of last count, according to strategists at Barclays.

“机会变得更有吸引力了一些,” 专注于投资 CLO 权益的 Tetragon Credit Partners 联席首席投资官 Dagmara Michalczuk 表示,“很多人目前决定出手了。” 目前贷款价格相对便宜。据摩根大通策略师称,本周早些时候,超过 90% 的贷款以低于面值的价格交易,这一比例为近 18 个月来的最高水平。本周晚些时候,该数字回落至约 85%,仍处于高位。该类债务的信用利差处于过去一年中的最宽水平附近。

“The opportunity is getting a little more exciting,” said Dagmara Michalczuk, co-chief investment officer at Tetragon Credit Partners, which invests in CLO equity. “A lot of folks are deciding to pull the trigger at the moment.”Loans are relatively cheap now. More than 90% were trading at a discount to face value earlier this week, a higher share than any time in almost 18 months, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Later this week, that figure edged closer to about 85%, still an elevated level. Spreads on the debt are sitting near their widest of the past year.

这 1.5 万亿美元杠杆贷款市场的担忧在于,更高的借贷成本和通胀将给最脆弱的公司带来压力,引发违约。Invesco 美国 CLO 业务联席负责人 Ian Gilbertson 表示,即使是那些可能相对不那么脆弱的公司,现在也被卷入了这种担忧之中。

The fear in the $1.5 trillion leveraged loan market is that higher borrowing costs and inflation will strain the weakest companies, triggering defaults. Even companies that might be less vulnerable are now getting caught up in those worries, said Ian Gilbertson, co-head of US CLOs at Invesco.

“10月份的疲软最初始于压力较大、评级较低的贷款,但最近我们看到抛售已蔓延至优质标的,为CLO管理人投入资本创造了更具吸引力的机会,”Gilbertson表示。“这促使一些管理人加快新CLO的组建。”

“The weakness in October initially started in more stressed and lower-rated loans, but more recently we’ve seen the selloff broaden into higher-quality names, creating a more attractive opportunity for CLO managers to put capital to work,” Gilbertson said. “This has encouraged some managers to accelerate new CLO formation.”

在美联储预计将继续加息、融资变得更难之际,来自CLO的贷款需求可能对至少部分正在寻求融资的公司构成利好。CLO持有杠杆贷款市场约三分之二的份额,使其成为该类债务的最大单一投资者类型。

The demand for loans from CLOs could be a positive for at least some companies looking for financing now, at a time when the Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising rates and funding is harder to come by. CLOs own about two-thirds of the leveraged-loan market, making them the single-biggest type of investor in the debt.

据知情人士透露,Carlyle、KKR和Oaktree只是最近与投资者洽谈即将发售CLO的部分机构,因为管理人正迅速行动,以利用可能稍纵即逝的机会。Carlyle、Oaktree和KKR的代表均拒绝置评。

Carlyle, KKR and Oaktree are just some of the firms that have recently talked to investors about selling CLOs soon as managers move quickly to capitalize on what could be a fleeting opportunity, according to the people with knowledge. Representatives for Carlyle, Oaktree and KKR declined to comment.

CLO销售的一大制约因素是风险最高的CLO证券——即权益层——的回报。根据德意志银行分析师本周发布的一份报告,CLO权益层的分派收益率总体已下滑一段时间,但本季度平均为2.8%,有望实现自2024年以来的首次季度回升。

A big constraint in CLO sales is returns on the riskiest CLO securities, known as equity. Distributions for CLO equity have generally been falling for some time, but are averaging 2.8% this quarter, on track for the first quarterly uptick since 2024, according to a report this week by analysts at Deutsche Bank AG.

即使有所上升,分派收益率按历史标准衡量仍相对较低。更便宜的贷款利好新发行,但不一定会引发CLO新发行的激增。截至周四收盘,今年以来已售出约1392亿美元的新发行CLO,较去年同期下降逾16%。

Even with that increase, distributions remain relatively low by historical standards. Cheaper loans are a positive for new issuance, but won’t necessarily trigger a torrent of new CLO sales. About $139.2 billion of new issue CLOs have been sold this year through Thursday’s close, down more than 16% from the same time last year.

廉价贷款至少以两种方式助益CLO权益层:一是通过利息支付提供更高收益率,二是在按面值偿还时产生额外回报。当资产管理人以例如97美分/美元的价格买入贷款,随后最终以100美分/美元获得偿还时,权益层会因杠杆收益特性,从该价差获益中获得超额收益。

Bargain loans help CLO equity in at least two ways: by paying higher yields from interest payments, and by generating extra return when they are repaid at face value. When a money manager buys a loan at, say, 97 cents on the dollar, and then eventually gets repaid at 100 cents, equity gets an outsized benefit from that price gain, because it offers leveraged returns.

CLO(抵押贷款债券)的权益份额往往是最难出售的部分,而该资产类别回报率的上升可能会让CLO的组建变得更容易。CLO套利收益——即该工具从贷款中赚取的收益与其支付给债券持有人的收益之间的差额——在最近几个月也略有扩大。据摩根大通其他策略师称,上周该差额扩大至1.41个百分点,较前一周扩大0.07个百分点,并高于过去一年1.16个百分点的平均水平。

Equity is often the hardest part of a CLO to sell, and rising returns for the asset class will probably make it easier to put CLOs together. The CLO arbitrage — the gap between what the vehicle earns on its loans and what it pays out to bondholders — has been ticking slightly higher as well in recent months. That gap widened to 1.41 percentage point this past week, up 0.07 percentage point from the prior week and above the 1.16 percentage point average for the past year, according to other JPMorgan strategists.

“从长远来看,我们始终认为这种波动对CLO权益是有利的,”购买CLO权益的Eagle Point Credit Management投资组合经理Dan Ko表示。

“In the long run, we always view bouts of volatility like this to be beneficial for CLO equity,” said Dan Ko, portfolio manager at Eagle Point Credit Management, which buys CLO equity.

投资者面临的挑战是找到那些低于面值交易但仍代表良好信用风险的贷款。有些行业正因技术变革而面临收入压力,并可能引发更多违约。例如,有线电视公司正承受压力,因为消费者转向通过互联网流媒体观看视频。

The challenge for investors is to find loans that are trading below face value but still represent a good credit risk. There are some industries where technological changes are weighing on revenue and threatening to trigger more defaults. Cable-television companies, for example, are under pressure as consumers stream video over the internet.

“真正的分化在于:有些公司能承受当今的资本成本,而另一些公司的资本结构却是在不同环境下构建的,”MidOcean Partners投资组合经理Michael Levitin表示。

“There’s a real separation between companies that can live with today’s cost of capital, and some companies whose capital structures were built in different environments,” said Michael Levitin, portfolio manager at MidOcean Partners.

信用前沿:AI债券发行热潮颠覆投资者基准(播客) 本周回顾 微软公司周四首次在近十年来发行企业债券,轻松筹集250亿美元。其罕见的AAA评级帮助公司吸引了需求,即使投资者对该行业变得谨慎。

Credit Edge: AI Bond Blitz Upends Investor Benchmarks (Podcast) Week In Review Microsoft Corp. sold corporate bonds for the first time in nearly decade on Thursday, raising $25 billion with ease. Its rare AAA ratings helped the company attract demand even as investors grow wary of the sector.

新的AI借贷仍在进行,特别是对于微软等被视为相对强势的公司。芯片制造商博通公司与美国银行、黑石集团、花旗集团和摩根士丹利安排了一笔630亿美元的融资方案,用于为AI模型开发商Anthropic PBC采购芯片提供资金。美国银行、花旗和摩根士丹利将提供其中约420亿美元的贷款,其中多达一半预计将在第一季度通过美国投资级企业债券市场进行再融资。

New AI borrowing is still happening, particularly for companies like Microsoft seen as relatively strong. Chipmaker Broadcom Inc. arranged a $63 billion financing package with Bank of America Corp., Blackstone Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley to finance the purchase of chips for AI model developer Anthropic PBC. Bank of America, Citi and Morgan Stanley are lending about $42 billion of the amount, as much as half of which is expected to be refinanced in the US high-grade corporate bond market in the first quarter.

SpaceX与阿波罗全球管理公司签署了一份约400亿美元的设备融资租赁协议,以支付推动其人工智能雄心所需的芯片费用。

SpaceX signed a roughly $40 billion equipment-finance lease with Apollo Global Management Inc. to pay for the chips needed to fuel its artificial intelligence ambitions.

已建立供应商融资安排,以所购硬件价值为抵押借入高达800亿美元,这是该公司为在人工智能基础设施上投入数千亿美元的同时保持财务灵活性而采取的最新举措。

has set up supplier financing arrangements to borrow as much as $80 billion against the value of hardware it buys, the company’s latest move to preserve financial flexibility as it spends hundreds of billions on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

但仍有一些迹象显示担忧情绪正在升温。本周,为众多美国科技巨头债务提供违约保护的成本触及新的历史高位,英特尔公司和亚马逊公司令人失望的季度报告引发了新的担忧,即为AI繁荣提供资金的大规模借贷热潮能否获得回报。

But there are still some signs of growing fears. Costs to protect the debt of numerous US technology heavyweights against default hit fresh record highs this week, with disappointing quarterly reports from Intel Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. spurring fresh concerns on whether the massive borrowing binge financing the AI boom will pay off.

在得克萨斯州因评估电网风险而暂停新项目后,银行推迟了出售部分用于资助与Anthropic PBC相关的得州数据中心的150亿美元贷款的计划。债券发行的推迟正值Anthropic在其大规模首次公开募股(IPO)前大力投资算力基础设施之际,这将导致银行在资产负债表上持有该债务的时间比原计划更长。

Banks are delaying plans to offload part of a $15 billion loan to fund a data center tied to Anthropic PBC in Texas, after the state put a hold on new projects while assessing risks to its power grid. The bond offering delay, which comes as Anthropic is investing heavily on computing infrastructure ahead of its massive initial public offering, would leave the banks holding the debt on their balance sheet longer than they originally planned.

投资巨头太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)在2025年通过数十亿美元的借贷助推了人工智能债务热潮——并及时削减了敞口,从而避开了亏损并勉强实现了盈利。通过一系列时机精准的抛售、利率对冲以及决定跳过后续的AI债券交易,Pimco迄今成功避开了固定收益投资者目前面临的数十亿美元损失,因为债务发行洪水淹没了市场并导致价格暴跌。此外,Pimco还购买了SpaceX融资交易中40亿美元的一份,这将有助于拓展其人工智能雄心。

Investing giant Pacific Investment Management Co. helped supercharge the artificial intelligence debt boom with billions of dollars in lending in 2025 —and has cut exposure just in time to skirt losses and eke out a profit. With a series of well-timed sales, interest rate hedges and a decision to skip later AI bond deals, Pimco has so far managed to duck the billions of dollars in hits that fixed-income investors now face after a flood of debt overwhelmed the market and sent prices tumbling. Separately, Pimco did buy a $4 billion slice of the SpaceX financing deal that will help expand its artificial intelligence ambitions.

全球AI科技公司的大举发债帮助推动全球投资级和垃圾债券销售在本周创下年度纪录,距离年底还有两个月。美国投资级债券销售也创下年度纪录,超过了2020年疫情推动的借贷热潮期间创下的先前纪录。

Heavy debt issuance by AI tech firms worldwide helped drive global investment-grade and junk bond sales to nual record this week, with two months still to go. US investment-grade sales also set an annual record topping the previous record set during the pandemic-fueled borrowing boom in 2020.

据彭博汇编的数据,消费巨头宝洁公司以仅比美国国债高0.6个百分点的息差发售了12.5亿美元的30年期债券,这一水平自2003年以来未见。这是投资者对长期蓝筹债务胃口强劲的迹象,因这类发行稀缺。

Consumer giant Procter & Gamble Co. sold $1.25 billion of 30-year bonds at a spread of just 0.6 percentage point over Treasuries, a level not seen since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s a sign of investor appetite for long-term blue-chip debt amid a dearth of such issuance.

明星对冲基金经理Hamza Lemssouguer的旗舰基金在10月截至23日下跌12%,今年以来下跌26%,原因是高风险欧洲垃圾债券暴跌。

Star hedge fund manager Hamza Lemssouguer’s flagship fund was down 12% in October through Oct. 23, and down 26% this year, as risky European junk bonds slump.

他的基金管理公司Arini Capital Management一直在抛售持仓,并从包括Pimco和橡树资本管理在内的公司获得了更多持仓的竞价。

His fund management firm, Arini Capital Management, has been selling off positions and is getting bids on more holdings from firms including Pimco and Oaktree Capital Management.

法国巴黎银行正在推进有史以来最大的重大风险转移交易之一,该交易关联约160亿欧元(179亿美元)的大企业贷款。据知情人士透露,这家总部位于巴黎的贷款机构计划转移投资组合中相当于其价值5%的首损部分的风险。

BNP Paribas SA is working on one of the biggest significant risk transfers ever a deal linked to about €16 billion ($17.9 billion) in large company loans. The Paris-based lender is planning to offload risk on a first loss piece of the portfolio, equivalent to 5% of its value, according to people familiar with the matter.

沙特阿拉伯国家支持的石油公司阿美(Aramco)即将与国际银行就一笔100亿美元贷款达成协议,这将增强其财务状况,因为中东冲突威胁着原油出口。

Saudi Arabian state-backed oil company Aramco is nearing agreement with international banks on a $10 billion loan that would bolster its finances as conflicts in the Middle East threaten crude exports.

据贝莱德(BlackRock)全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德(Rick Rieder)表示,由人工智能驱动的债务繁荣正在创造多年来最具吸引力的一些固定收益机会,其吸引力超过了长期美国国债。“就融资规模而言,无论是债务市场还是股权市场,我从未见过这样的情况,”他在接受彭博电视采访时表示。里德指出,用于图形处理单元、数据中心和其他人工智能基础设施的融资激增尤为引人注目。

The AI-driven debt boom is creating some of the most attractive fixed-income opportunities in years, eclipsing the appeal of long-dated US Treasuries, according to BlackRock’s Rick Rieder“I’ve never seen anything like it in terms of the size of the financing that’s coming in both debt markets, equity markets,” the firm’s chief investment officer for global fixed income said in a Bloomberg TV interview. The surge in financing for graphics processing units, data centers and other AI infrastructure is particularly compelling, Rieder noted.

这位资金管理者青睐成熟公司的担保债务和产生现金流的资产,同时也认为半导体和计算领域的股票估值合理。

The money manager prefers secured debt from established companies and cash-generating assets, while also seeing reasonable equity valuations in semiconductors and computing.

城堡投资(Citadel)联席首席投资官巴勃罗·萨拉梅(Pablo Salame)表示,人工智能繁荣将留下一些伤亡。在一次罕见的采访中,他说,支撑人工智能革命的非凡资本需求,正与不愿承担所有这些风险的谨慎放贷人发生冲突。“信贷市场目前陷入僵局,因为它还没有找到一个好的方法来转移这些风险,”萨拉梅说。实现人工智能所承诺的乌托邦所需的巨额资金需求,正成为一种摩擦源,阻碍着失控式增长。“信贷重置尚未结束,”萨拉梅说。“它将面临严峻考验。”

Citadel Co-Chief Investment Officer Pablo Salame says the AI boom will leave some casualties in its wake. In a rare interview, he said the extraordinary capital demand underpinning the AI revolution is clashing with wary lenders unwilling to take on all that risk. “The credit market is getting jammed right now because it hasn’t figured out a good way to offload those risks yet,” Salame said. The enormous financial ask needed to get to AI’s promised utopia is cropping up as a source of friction that’s holding back runaway growth. “Credit is not done resetting,” Salame, said. “It’s going to be very tested.”

长期以破产业务闻名的律师事务所韦尔·戈特夏尔·芒格斯(Weil Gotshal & Manges)计划在运营近一个世纪后解散。由于合伙人流失到愿意支付更高薪酬的其他律所,该所正争分夺秒地留住员工。

Weil Gotshal & Manges, a lawfirm lonng known for its bankruptcy practice, plans to wind down after nearly a century of operating. It has lost partners to other firms willing to pay more, leading to a scramble for it to retain staff.

中国前所未有的房地产危机已出现新的热点,国内最大的地方政府控股集团之一正面临债务偿付困难。知情人士周一透露,珠海华发集团股份有限公司未能按时偿付两笔近期到期的信托产品。该公司曾参与建设包括330米高的珠海塔在内的地标性建筑,同时也在向至少三家银行申请延长贷款期限。此消息导致与该集团相关的债券和股票大幅下跌,而该集团本月早些时候刚在国内市场发行了规模为10亿元、成本相对低廉的2.07%票据。

China’s unprecedented property crisis has reached another flashpoint, as one of the country’s biggest local-government owned conglomerates struggles with debt payments Zhuhai Huafa Group Co. missed payments on two trust products that were due recently, people familiar with the matter said on Monday. The firm, which has helped build landmarks such as the 330-meter tall Zhuhai Tower skyscraper, has also been asking to extend loans from at least three banks. The news sparked sharp declines in bonds and shares tied to the group, which had just priced a 1 billion yuan note in the domestic market at the relatively low cost of 2.07% earlier in the month.

据知情人士透露,Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc. 已聘请Moelis & Co. 协助解决其15亿美元债务问题,因休闲消费低迷使其困境加深。与此同时,该公司债权人组成的财团正与PJT Partners 及 Gibson Dunn & Crutcher 合作。该财团已签署合作协议,并正寻求更多签字以扩大支持力度。该协议是这家陷入困境的娱乐公司债权人最新的努力,旨在防止债权人之间的内斗——这种内斗往往会损害少数债权人的利益。

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc. has tapped Moelis & Co. to help address its $1.5 billion debt as a slump in leisure spending is pushing it further into distress, according to people familiar with the matter. Separately, a consortium of the company’s creditors is working with PJT Partners and Gibson Dunn & Crutcher. The group has executed a cooperation pact and is now seeking signatures to broaden support. The pact is the latest effort by the struggling entertainment company’s creditors to fend off infighting that tends to pit lenders against each other, often to the detriment of minority debt holders.

Lionsgate Studios Corp.(《暮光之城》及其他影片的制片方)正计划出售以其作品目录为支持的债券,并与投资者就可能的交易进行洽谈。日本贷方三菱UFJ金融集团正安排该电影制作公司与资产管理人进行早期讨论,是否最终发行尚未确定,知情人士称。公司很少出售以电影和电视剧为担保的债券。上一次较为显著的此类发行是在2020年,当时拥有《指环王》三部曲等影片的Village Roadshow Entertainment Group 出售了价值4.215亿美元的证券。

Lionsgate Studios Corp., the filmmaker behind and other titles, is looking to sell bonds backed by its catalog and talking to investors about a possible transaction. Japanese lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. is arranging early discussions between the film-production company and money managers that may or may not lead to an offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Companies rarely sell bonds backed by movies and TV shows. The last notable such sale was in 2020, when Village Roadshow Entertainment Group, owner of movies including the trilogy, sold $421.5 million of securities.

阿瑞斯资本公司表示,已同意从阿波罗全球管理公司手中收购私人信贷基金MidCap Financial Investment Corp.,交易以现金加股票方式进行,企业价值为26亿美元。今年以来,在市场整体动荡和投资者赎回的背景下,私人信贷管理机构一直在寻求出售表现不佳的基金,并吸引了竞争对手的兴趣,这些竞争对手正趁低价在这个规模达1.8万亿美元的市场中收购资产。

Ares Capital Corp. said it agreed to buy private credit fund MidCap Financial Investment Corp. from Apollo Global Management Inc. in a cash-and-stock transaction with an enterprise value of $2.6 billion. Private credit managers have been looking to sell underperforming funds this year amid broader market turmoil and investor redemptions, and have been attracting interest from competitors scooping up cheap deals in the $1.8 trillion market.

人事变动:Gemcorp Capital已聘请摩根士丹利的玛丽亚·甘切娃担任首席策略师兼新兴市场困境与特殊机会信贷投资组合经理。

On the Move Gemcorp Capital has hired Morgan Stanley Mariya Gancheva as chief strategist and portfolio manager for emerging-market distressed & special situations credit.

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