波黑塞族分离主义领导人米洛拉德·多迪克在一场游说盛宴后赢得了“让美国再次伟大”运动的青睐。
Milorad Dodik, the separatist Bosnian Serb leader, has won MAGA’s favor after a lobbying bonanza.
艾萨克·斯坦利-贝克尔 报道 在周二的中期选举后的几天里，“让美国再次伟大”运动的杰出人物将聚集在海湖庄园，将目光投向2028年。演讲者将包括一位内阁部长、国内政策委员会主任以及数名国会议员。波黑塞族实际领导人、亲俄强人米洛拉德·多迪克也将出席。他曾吹嘘监视美国人，近期还称俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京是“我们这个时代最热爱和平的领导人之一”。多迪克推动分离独立，有再次引燃巴尔干半岛血腥宗派冲突的风险。
By Isaac Stanley-Becker In the days after Tuesday’s midterm elections, luminaries of the MAGA movement will gather at Mar-a-Lago to turn their attention to 2028. Speakers will include a Cabinet secretary, the head of the Domestic Policy Council, and several members of Congress. Also present will be Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russia strongman who has bragged about spying on Americans and recently called Russian President Vladimir Putin “one of the most peace-loving leaders of our time.”Dodik is the de facto leader of Bosnia’s Serb population, whose push for secession risks reigniting bloody sectarian conflict in the Balkans.
多位知情人士向我透露了多迪克的行程安排。这些人因预览非公开事项而要求匿名，他们表示细节可能在最后一刻发生变化。（多迪克办公室未回复置评请求。）但多迪克预计将出席，这反映了他在特朗普政府下的命运逆转、一场昂贵的外国游说活动的成功，以及美俄利益的进一步趋同。
Dodik’s travel plans were described to me by several people familiar with them. These people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview nonpublic matters, said the details could change at the last minute. (His office did not respond to a request for comment.) But Dodik’s expected attendance reflects his reversal of fortune under the Trump administration, the success of a pricey foreign lobbying campaign, and a further alignment of American and Russian interests.
多迪克政府聘请了特朗普的两位核心政治顾问詹姆斯·布莱尔和克里斯·拉西维塔担任顾问，并将他们带到以塞尔维亚族为主的实体，为本月初的波黑大选助选。（在该工作曝光、特朗普在“真相社交”平台上抨击二人后，他们将所得收入捐赠给了特朗普总统图书馆基金。）本党取得压倒性胜利后，多迪克将功劳归于特朗普和普京的支持。
Dodik’s government paid two of Trump’s top political advisers, James Blair and Chris LaCivita, as consultants and brought them to the Serb-majority entity for the Bosnian elections earlier this month. (They later donated their earnings to Trump’s presidential library fund after news of the work became public and the president lashed out at them on Truth Social.) When his party won a decisive result, Dodik credited both Trump and Putin for their support.
“如果不是唐纳德·特朗普的辉煌胜利，”多迪克在取得有利结果后对支持者说，“我们今天大概早已是政治上的行尸走肉了。”2022年，拜登政府因财政部所谓的“贪腐”、“腐败”、“行贿”，以及对波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那稳定的威胁，对多迪克实施了制裁。这个巴尔干国家的族群分裂曾在1992年至1995年间催化了一场残酷战争。
“If it had not been for Donald Trump’s magnificent victory,” Dodik told supporters after the favorable result, “we would probably be political corpses today.”In 2022, the Biden administration sanctioned Dodik for what the Treasury Department called “graft,” “corruption,” and “bribery,” as well as threats to the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Balkan nation where ethnic divisions catalyzed a brutal war from 1992 to 1995.
冲突在斯雷布雷尼察大屠杀中达到高潮，直到俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之前，这是二战以来欧洲最骇人听闻的大规模屠杀。据美国政府称，多迪克曾试图破坏结束战争的《代顿和平协议》。他被指在联邦制国家的塞族实体——塞族共和国建立平行国家机构，并贬低其他族裔和宗教群体，首当其冲的是穆斯林波斯尼亚克族。
The conflict climaxed in the genocide at Srebrenica, which until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was the most horrific mass murder in Europe since World War II. Dodik, according to the U.S. government, had attempted to sabotage the accords that ended the war, the Dayton peace agreement. He was accused of creating parallel state institutions in the federated country’s Serb-majority entity, known as Republika Srpska, and of denigrating other ethnic and religious groups, above all Muslim Bosniaks.
随后，其众多家庭成员、盟友和公司也遭到制裁。前塞族共和国总统多迪克去年因无视监督《代顿协议》的国际高级代表的决定，被波黑司法系统判刑，被剥夺总统职务并禁止担任公职六年。他拒绝接受这些决定，称其具有政治动机且缺乏宪法授权，并继续对塞族共和国的机构行使近乎绝对的控制。
Numerous family members, allies, and companies were eventually also sanctioned. Formerly Srpska’s president, Dodik was stripped of that position and banned from holding office for six years after being convicted by the Bosnian judicial system last year of flouting decisions by the international envoy overseeing the Dayton Accords. He has rejected those decisions as politically motivated and void of constitutional authority, and continues to exercise near-total control over Srpska’s institutions.
自特朗普去年重返白宫以来，塞族共和国政府已斥资数百万美元聘请游说人士，试图在特朗普身边的人圈子里为多迪克树立正面形象。其策略是将他塑造成一位以美国总统自居的“殉道者”——法律手段的受害者，以及捍卫基督教价值观、抵御塞尔维亚民族主义者所谓“穆斯林影响浪潮”的十字军战士。多迪克及其盟友聘请的人员包括：特朗普前私人律师鲁迪·朱利安尼；去年获得特朗普赦免的伊利诺伊州前州长罗德·布拉戈耶维奇；以及雇佣了白宫幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯之女凯蒂·怀尔斯的公司。
Since Trump returned to office last year, the Srpska government has unleashed millions of dollars on lobbyists in a bid to burnish Dodik’s image with the people around Trump. The strategy has been to portray him as a martyr in the American president’s image—a victim of legal maneuvering and a crusader for Christian values holding back what some Serbian nationalists characterize as a tide of Muslim influence. Among those whose services Dodik and his allies have tapped are Rudy Giuliani, the president’s former personal lawyer; Rod Blagojevich, the former Illinois governor who landed a pardon from Trump last year; and the firm employing Katie Wiles, the daughter of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
2025年10月，特朗普政府取消了制裁。财政部外国资产控制办公室未给出理由，但国务院几天前曾赞扬塞族共和国立法机构采取的若干和解举措，称这是华盛顿为“化解波黑危机”所作努力的成果。国务院官员还推动与多迪克发生冲突的国际特使辞职。这位2021年出任波黑高级代表的德国保守派政治家克里斯蒂安·施密特于今年5月照办了，他对一家德国报纸表示，曾承受来自美国的“巨大且意想不到的压力”。
In October 2025, the Trump administration dropped the sanctions. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control did not offer a rationale, but the State Department had days earlier hailed several conciliatory steps taken by Srpska’s legislative body as the result of Washington’s efforts to “defuse the crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina.”State Department officials also pushed for the resignation of the international envoy who had clashed with Dodik. Christian Schmidt, a conservative German politician who had taken up the role of high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2021, complied in May of this year, telling a German newspaper that he had come under “enormous and unexpected pressure from the U.S.” Diplomats in the region as well as experts have viewed the Trump administration’s concessions to Dodik with significant alarm because of his avowed separatist aims and his explicit backing by Putin.
该地区外交官和专家对特朗普政府向多迪克做出让步深感忧虑，因为他公开主张分离主义，且得到普京的明确支持。塞尔维亚和波黑均为欧盟候选国。
Both Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are candidates for European Union membership.
下周在海湖庄园举行的活动是保守派政治行动会议（CPAC）的一个分支，这个右翼盛会近年来扩大了其国际影响力。该活动名为“CPAC圈层闭门会暨晚宴”，号称“远见者聚会”。其网站明确指出了活动与下届总统大选的关联，称：“随着中期选举结果出炉，我们将讨论其对政治版图和通往2028年之路的意义。”演讲嘉宾包括劳工部长以及至少两位美国参议员——犹他州的迈克·李和佛罗里达州的里克·斯科特。
The event planned for next week at Mar-a-Lago is an offshoot of the Conservative Political Action Conference, a right-wing jamboree that has enlarged its international footprint in recent years. It’s called the CPAC Circle Retreat and Gala and is billed as a “Gathering of Visionaries.”The website makes explicit the event’s connection with the next presidential election, stating, “As midterm election results come in, we’ll discuss what they mean for the political landscape and the road to 2028.”Speakers include the secretary of labor and at least two U.S. senators, Mike Lee of Utah and Rick Scott of Florida.
另一位宣传中的演讲嘉宾是爱德华多·博尔索纳罗，他是弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗的兄弟；后者是巴西落选总统候选人，最近为逃避涉嫌洗钱和逃税的可能起诉而抵达美国。当我询问美国保守派联盟主席、CPAC主办方马特·施拉普关于多迪克出席一事时，他告诉我：“我们将有一群非常有趣的捐赠者和贵宾，但除演讲嘉宾外，我们不会评论谁将出席。”
Eduardo Bolsonaro, the brother of Flávio Bolsonaro, the failed Brazilian presidential candidate who recently arrived in the U.S. to evade possible prosecution on allegations of money laundering and tax evasion, is another advertised speaker. When I asked Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union and CPAC’s host, about Dodik’s attendance, he told me, “We will have a very interesting group of donors and VIPs, but we won’t comment on who will be in attendance other than who the speakers will be.”
他补充说：“重点将放在通往2028年的美国未来上。”目前不清楚特朗普在多迪克预计访问期间是否会在海湖庄园，但他的到访将使他置身于“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的主要神经中枢之一。白宫未回应置评请求。今年早些时候访问华盛顿期间，多迪克曾与国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯以及时任白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特合影留念。
He added that the “focus will be on America’s future heading into 2028.”It’s not clear whether Trump will be at Mar-a-Lago during Dodik’s anticipated visit, but his presence there will take him into one of MAGA’s main nerve centers. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. During a visit to Washington earlier this year, Dodik had photo ops with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Karoline Leavitt, the then–White House press secretary.
现任和前任美国官员告诉我，多迪克可能感到压力，要尽快实现确保塞族共和国独立的目标，因为特朗普对他可能比2028年后潜在的民主党继任者更友好。周二的美国大选将有助于决定“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的长期政治生存能力。无论结果如何，特朗普还将有两年时间继续给多迪克他想要的东西。
Current and former U.S. officials told me that Dodik may feel pressure to achieve his aim of securing Srpska’s independence soon, given that Trump is likely to be friendlier to him than a potential Democratic successor after 2028. Tuesday’s election in the U.S. will help determine MAGA’s long-term political viability. No matter the result, Trump will have another two years to keep giving Dodik what he wants.