每个政党都喜欢有个反派。在这个选举周期，共和党人正团结起来反对社会主义者；一些人还警告要提防穆斯林。对民主党人来说，没有比亿万富翁更容易的目标了——在党内左翼仍满怀希望地称之为“晚期资本主义”的时代，亿万富翁就是终极反派。在加利福尼亚州，这种普遍的焦虑有一个具体的靶子。11月3日，该州选民将决定是否通过第40号提案，该提案将对大约260名亿万富翁一次性征收5%的财富税，用于支付公共医疗保健费用。
EVERY POLITICAL PARTY likes a villain. In this cycle, Republicans are rallying against socialists; some warn against Muslims, too. For Democrats, there is no easier target than billionaires, the ultimate baddies in what the party’s left flank continues to call, hopefully, late-stage capitalism. In California this generalised angst has a specific target. On November 3rd voters in the state will decide whether to pass Proposition 40, which would impose a one-time, 5% wealth tax on roughly 260 billionaires to pay for public health care.
本月在洛杉矶举行的一场集会上，佛蒙特州左翼参议员伯尼·桑德斯宣称，第40号提案是“全国最重要的投票议题”。
At a rally in Los Angeles this month, Bernie Sanders, a left-wing senator for Vermont, declared Prop 40 to be “the most important ballot item in the country”.
然而，抱怨亿万富翁容易，制定连贯的政策来惩罚他们却难。很少有加州人同情那些科技大亨——他们近来热衷于思考人类在人工智能面前会否、或应否存续。但人们担心这项税收会迫使亿万富翁离开该州，从而威胁加州的创新经济和税基，这使该提案备受争议。在全国各地的中期选举竞选中，民主党政客利用了选民中的民粹主义愤怒。在他们考虑民粹主义政策之际，加州的这场争斗或许能提供一个警示。
Complaining about billionaires, though, is easier than devising coherent policy to punish them. Few Californians have sympathy for tech barons who have lately taken to musing about whether humanity will, or should, survive AI. But fear that the levy would drive billionaires from the state—threatening California’s innovation economy and its tax base—has made the measure controversial. In midterm races across the country, Democratic politicians have tapped into voters’ populist anger. As they consider populist policies, the battle in California may offer a cautionary tale.
对加文·纽森这位任期受限的加州民主党州长来说，这场斗争是一个挥之不去的头痛问题。他此前曾反对州议会中民主党绝对多数派提出的财富税。他的怀疑态度也延伸到第40号提案——他曾试图阻止该提案进入投票，如今正展开反对它的竞选活动。“我认为在州一级这样做不是个好主意，”他最近在新罕布什尔州对记者说。“这是一份写得很糟糕的提案。”纽森不想在可能竞选总统之前显得软弱可欺，于是转而建议，美国可以通过调整联邦税法来向富人开刀。
For Gavin Newsom, California’s term-limited Democratic governor, the fight is a continuing headache. He has previously opposed wealth taxes put forward by the Democratic supermajority in the state legislature. His scepticism extends to Prop 40, which he tried to keep off the ballot and is now campaigning against. “I don’t think it’s a good idea to do it at state level,” he told reporters recently in New Hampshire. “It’s a badly written initiative.”Mr Newsom, not wanting to look a sop ahead of a potential presidential campaign, has instead suggested that America could squeeze the rich by tinkering with the federal tax code.
代表硅谷部分地区的国会议员罗·卡纳也引人注目地走访了举行早期总统初选的各州，他指纽森先生的反对立场证明他受亿万富翁操控。他在洛杉矶与桑德斯先生共同举行的集会上对人群说：“加文，你不能一边假装反特朗普，一边替特朗普的金主办事。”对民主党人而言，危险在于内斗和前后不一致的政策会进一步削弱他们在选民中的地位。
Ro Khanna, a congressman for part of Silicon Valley who has also been making conspicuous visits to states that have early presidential primaries, points to Mr Newsom’s opposition as proof that he is in the pocket of billionaires. “Gavin, you can’t pretend to be anti-Trump while doing the bidding of Trump’s donors,” he told the crowd at the rally in Los Angeles with Mr Sanders. The danger, for Democrats, is that infighting and incoherent policy further degrades their standing with voters.
当卡纳先生问人群“民主党代表什么？”时，他似乎期待一个热烈的回应。不止一个人喊道：“什么都不代表！”民主党人之间的争吵已蔓延到劳工团体。第40号提案由SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West的负责人戴夫·里根策划，他希望找到办法来弥补唐纳德·特朗普去年通过的《One Big Beautiful Bill Act》中的医疗保健削减。
When Mr Khanna asked the crowd, “what does the Democratic Party stand for?”, he seemed to expect a rousing reply. More than one person yelled back: “Nothing!”Bickering among Democrats has spread to labour groups. Prop 40 was cooked up by Dave Regan, the boss of SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, who wanted to find a way to compensate for health-care cuts in Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed last year.
但几个工会反对这项税收，并指责里根先生为了达到目的而欺凌和骚扰其他劳工领袖。里根先生将这些指控斥为“攻击信使的抹黑行动”。他还说，其他工会“应该为自己感到羞耻”，竟然堕落到“为纽森州长和亿万富翁效劳”的地步。
But several unions oppose the tax, and have accused Mr Regan of bullying and harassing fellow labour leaders to get his way. Mr Regan dismisses the allegations as “a shoot-the-messenger smear campaign”. He adds that other unions “should be ashamed of themselves” for stooping so low as “to carry water for Governor Newsom and the billionaires”.
40号提案只需简单多数即可通过。然而，随着选举日临近，它似乎正在失去支持。加州公共政策研究所的一项新民调显示，46%的加州人支持该税，低于9月份的52%。一些选民可能对该税引发的对立情绪和混乱感到反感；另一些人可能只是对投票措施感到疲劳。对该措施不满的亿万富翁们正在支持另外两项全州性倡议，这两项倡议将废除40号提案并阻止未来出现类似税收。
Prop 40 needs just a simple majority to pass. However, it seems to be losing support as election day nears. A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California suggests that 46% of Californians support the tax, down from 52% in September. Some voters may be turned off by the toxicity and confusion the tax has spawned; others may simply have ballot-measure fatigue. Billionaires upset by the measure are supporting two other statewide initiatives that would nullify Prop 40 and prevent similar taxes in future.
谷歌联合创始人谢尔盖·布林已向该行动捐赠1.02亿美元（约合每位加州人2.60美元）。支持与反对亿万富翁税的这两类措施——连同各种州和地方提案——意味着选票可能冗长乏味。洛杉矶的选票长达九页。
Sergey Brin, a co-founder of Google, has donated $102m (or about $2.60 per Californian) to that effort. The pro- and anti-billionaire tax measures—along with all manner of state and local propositions—mean that ballots can be tediously long. Those in Los Angeles take up nine pages.
近50年前，加州选民通过了第13号提案，该提案限制了房产税，永久性地扭曲了该州住房市场，并引发了全国性的抗税运动。人们的希望（如果你是桑德斯先生）和担忧（如果你是布林先生）是，加州再次站在了前沿。桑德斯先生和卡纳先生已在国会提出一项法案，将对美国亿万富翁每年征收5%的财富税。即使40号提案失败，其他行动也可能接踵而至。
Nearly 50 years ago California voters passed Proposition 13, which capped property taxes, permanently distorted the state’s housing market and inspired a national tax revolt. The hope (if you’re Mr Sanders) and worry (if you’re Mr Brin) is that California is again at the vanguard. Mr Sanders and Mr Khanna have introduced a bill in Congress that would impose an annual 5% wealth tax on America’s billionaires. Even if Prop 40 fails, other activity may follow.
看起来即将成为加州下一任州长的民主党人哈维尔·贝塞拉表示，他正在考虑对富人征收新的所得税。“让我告诉亿万富翁们，你们在加州所做的一切不是终点，”桑德斯先生在洛杉矶对人群说，“这只是开始。”■
Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who looks set to become California’s next governor, has said he is considering a new income tax on the wealthy. “Let me tell the billionaires that what you guys are doing in California is not the end,” Mr Sanders told the crowd in Los Angeles. “It is the beginning.”■