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印度10月工厂增长放缓,出口订单跃升,PMI显示India factory growth slows in October, export orders jump, PMI shows

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2026年1月28日,印度艾哈迈达巴德郊区一家钢铁厂内,一名工人正在检查钢筋的密度。路透社/阿米特·戴夫/资料照片A worker checks the density of steel bars inside a steel factory on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, January 28, 2026. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo

一项私人调查显示,随着国内需求放缓和招聘减弱,印度10月制造业增长放缓,但出口订单激增以及近四年来最温和的产出价格压力有助于缓冲放缓幅度。

India's manufacturing growth slowed in October as domestic demand eased and hiring weakened, though a surge in export orders and the softest output price pressures in nearly four years helped cushion the slowdown, a private survey showed.

由标普全球编制的汇丰印度制造业采购经理指数(PMI)(INPMI=ECI)在10月降至54.7,低于9月的55.1,也低于初值54.9。PMI读数高于50.0表明扩张。

HSBC's India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (INPMI=ECI), compiled by S&P Global, eased to 54.7 in October from 55.1 in September, below a preliminary estimate of 54.9. PMI readings above 50.0 indicate growth.

新订单——需求的关键指标——较9月七个月高位略微回落。出口订单表现突出,增速加快至六个月来最快。

New orders - a key gauge of demand - pulled back marginally from September's seven-month high. Export orders stood out, accelerating to their fastest pace in six months.

产出有所失地。制造商以该调查21年多历史中的创纪录速度用成品填满仓库,并将其归因于旺盛需求和防止短缺的努力。

Output lost some ground. Manufacturers filled their warehouses with finished products at a record pace in the survey's more than 21-year history, attributing it to buoyant demand and efforts to prevent shortages.

然而,这种激进的库存积累与原材料采购增长放缓至整个64个月扩张序列中最弱同步发生,表明企业可能是在对冲不太确定的需求前景,而非为未来更强劲的销售做准备。

However, the aggressive stockpile build coincided with raw material purchasing growth slowing to its weakest in the entire 64-month sequence of expansion, suggesting firms may be hedging against a less certain demand outlook rather than gearing up for stronger sales ahead.

工厂就业连续第二个月增长,但增速较9月放缓,资本货物制造商削减了员工。商业信心略微下降,虽然大体与过去一年大部分时间见到的水平一致,但低于其长期平均水平。

Factory employment grew for a second month but the pace slowed from September with capital goods makers cutting staff. Business confidence dipped marginally and, while broadly in line with levels seen over much of the past year, was below its long-run average.

“生产商还将投入品库存增加至八个月来最大程度,建立预防性缓冲以缓解潜在短缺,并在全球环境动荡中满足不断上升的生产需求,”汇丰首席印度经济学家Pranjul Bhandari表示。

"Producers also increased input inventories to the greatest extent in eight months, building precautionary buffers to mitigate potential shortages and meet rising production requirements amid a volatile global environment," said Pranjul Bhandari, HSBC's chief India economist.

投入成本通胀回落至2月以来最低。售价涨幅降至近四年来最弱,表明定价能力有限。

Input cost inflation retreated to its lowest since February. Selling price rises fell to their weakest in nearly four years, suggesting limited pricing power.

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