周二，美国民众将前往投票站参加美国中期选举，该选举在总统四年任期的中点举行。选民将选出美国众议院全部435名议员以及参议院100个席位中的35个。此次投票将决定哪个政党在未来两年控制国会。
On Tuesday, Americans head to the polls for the United States midterm elections, held halfway through a president’s four-year term. Voters will choose all 435 members of the US House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats. The voting will decide which party controls Congress for the next two years.
尽管总统的名字不会出现在选票上，但这场选举普遍被视为对总统执政表现的公投，而总统所属政党几乎总是要付出代价。
Although the president’s name won’t appear on the ballot, the vote is widely seen as a verdict on the presidency, and the president’s party almost always pays the price.
从1946年到2022年举行的20次中期选举中，有18次选民从控制白宫的政党手中夺走了众议院席位。平均损失为26个席位。只有1998年比尔·克林顿领导的民主党和2002年乔治·W·布什领导的共和党打破了这一趋势。
In 18 of the 20 midterms held from 1946 to 2022, voters took House seats away from the party in control of the White House. The average loss was 26 seats. Only Bill Clinton’s Democrats in 1998 and George W Bush’s Republicans in 2002 bucked the trend.
政治学家将此称为“总统惩罚”或“中期选举惩罚”。总统所属政党往往会失去席位，仅仅因为它掌握权力，而选民利用中期选举来对白宫进行制衡。
Political scientists call this the “presidential penalty”, or the “midterm penalty”. The president’s party tends to lose seats simply because it holds power as voters use the midterms to put a check on the White House.
众议院：20次中期选举中18次失利 下图显示了从哈里·S·杜鲁门到乔·拜登，总统所属政党在自1946年以来每次中期选举中赢得或失去的众议院席位数。
The House: 18 losses in 20 midterms The chart below shows how many House seats the president’s party has won or lost in each midterm since 1946 from Harry S Truman to Joe Biden.
自1946年以来，民主党总统遭遇了最大的中期选举惨败。平均而言，民主党在中期选举中失去约29个众议院席位，而共和党总统执政时期平均失去约23个席位。
Democratic presidents have suffered the biggest midterm defeats since 1946. On average, their party has lost about 29 House seats in a midterm, compared with about 23 under Republican presidents.
最大的失利发生在2010年，即贝拉克·奥巴马当选为首位非裔美国总统两年后，当时民主党失去了64个众议院席位，共和党夺得了众议院控制权。杜鲁门时期的民主党在1946年失去56个席位，克林顿时期的民主党在1994年失去54个席位，每次都导致失去众议院控制权。
The largest loss came in 2010, two years after Barack Obama became the first African American elected president, when Democrats lost 64 House seats and Republicans took control of the chamber. The Democrats under Truman lost 56 seats in 1946, and under Clinton, they lost 54 in 1994, each time losing control of the House.
共和党最惨重的失败发生在德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔执政时期，当时该党在1958年失去50个席位，以及杰拉尔德·福特执政时期，1974年失去48个席位。唐纳德·特朗普首个任期内的2018年中期选举使共和党失去42个席位和众议院控制权。
The worst Republican defeats came under Dwight D Eisenhower when the party lost 50 seats in 1958 and Gerald Ford when it lost 48 in 1974. Donald Trump’s first midterm in 2018 cost Republicans 42 seats and control of the House.
重大失利往往会让总统所属政党失去多数席位。自1946年以来的20次中期选举中，有7次（1946年、1954年、1994年、2006年、2010年、2018年和2022年）众议院易手。
Big losses often cost the president’s party its majority. In seven of the 20 midterms since 1946 (1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022), the House changed hands.
参议院：20次中期选举中13次失利 自1946年以来的20次中期选举中，总统所属政党在13次选举中失去了参议院席位，但仅在6次选举中失去了参议院控制权：1946年、1954年、1986年、1994年、2006年和2014年。
The Senate: 13 losses in 20 midterms The president’s party has lost Senate seats in 13 of the 20 midterms since 1946 but lost control of the chamber in only six: 1946, 1954, 1986, 1994, 2006 and 2014.
与每两年全部席位都要改选的众议院不同，参议院100个席位中每次选举只有大约三分之一在争夺，因为参议员任期六年，选举错开进行。这意味着哪些州在投票，可能和全国情绪一样重要。
Unlike the House of Representatives, where every seat is up for election every two years, only about a third of the Senate’s 100 seats are contested in each cycle because senators serve six-year terms and their elections are staggered. That means which states are voting can matter as much as the national mood.
艾森豪威尔的共和党人在该时期遭受了最大的参议院失利，1958年丢掉了13个席位。杜鲁门的民主党人在1946年失去了12个席位，奥巴马的民主党人在2014年失去了9个席位，将参议院控制权交给了共和党人。
Eisenhower’s Republicans suffered the biggest Senate loss in the period, giving up 13 seats in 1958. Truman’s Democrats lost 12 in 1946, and Obama’s Democrats lost nine in 2014, handing control of the chamber to Republicans.
有时，两院会朝相反方向发展。1982年，罗纳德·里根的共和党人失去了26个众议院席位，但在参议院增加了一个席位。2018年，特朗普的共和党人失去了众议院，但增加了一个参议院席位；2022年，拜登的民主党人失去了众议院，但在参议院增加了一个席位。
At times, the two chambers have moved in opposite directions. In 1982, Ronald Reagan’s Republicans lost 26 House seats but gained one in the Senate. In 2018, Trump’s Republicans lost the House but added a Senate seat, and in 2022, Biden’s Democrats lost the House while gaining one seat in the Senate.
这些分裂的结果表明，对总统的反弹并不会在国会两院均匀分布。一个政党可能在有利的参议院选举地图上守住阵地，同时在竞争激烈的众议院选区失利。失去众议院或参议院意味着什么？
These split results show that a backlash against the president does not land evenly across Congress. A party can hold its ground on a favourable Senate map while losing competitive House districts. What does it mean to lose the House or Senate?
失去席位和失去控制权不是一回事。林登·约翰逊的民主党人在1966年失去了47个众议院席位，但保住了多数席位。二十年后，里根的共和党人仅失去了四个众议院席位，但在参议院遭遇八个席位的挫折后失去了控制权。
Losing seats and losing control are not the same thing. Lyndon Johnson’s Democrats lost 47 House seats in 1966 but kept their majority. Twenty years later, Reagan’s Republicans lost only four House seats but lost the Senate after an eight-seat setback.
两院的控制权决定谁来设定议程并通过立法。一项法案必须经过两院批准后才能提交总统签署或否决，因此任何一院的反对党占多数都可以阻止总统的计划。
Control of the chambers decides who sets the agenda and passes legislation. A bill must pass both chambers before it reaches the president for his approval or veto, so an opposition majority in either can block the president’s plans.
众议院多数席位也意味着一个政党能够发起调查并弹劾总统，而参议院多数席位可以否决总统的提名，包括终身任职的联邦法官。
A House majority can also mean a party is able to launch investigations and impeach a president while a Senate majority can reject the president’s nominees, including federal judges, who serve for life.
今年，民主党需要赢得三个席位才能控制众议院，四个席位才能控制参议院。参议院若出现50比50的平局，共和党将继续掌控，因为副总统JD·万斯可以投下决定性的一票。
This year, Democrats need to gain three seats to win the House and four to win the Senate. A 50-50 split in the Senate would leave Republicans in control because Vice President JD Vance may cast tie-breaking votes.
