智利固定收益投资者正涌向指数挂钩票据，因为伊朗战争已持续九个月，推动油价升至四月以来的最高水平，并助长通胀预期。
Chilean fixed income investors are flocking to index-linked notes as the war in Iran drags on into its nine month, pushing oil prices to levels not seen since April and stoking inflation expectations.
彭博社上周对18名分析师和交易员进行的调查显示，近90%的人表示偏好以“发展单位”（Unidades de Fomento，一种通胀挂钩记账单位）计价的债券，这是自2025年3月该月度调查恢复以来的最高比例。只有两名受访者表示会选择比索债券。
Almost 90% of the 18 analysts and traders polled by Bloomberg last week said they favor bonds denominated in Unidades de Fomento — an inflation-linked accounting unit — the highest percentage since the monthly survey resumed in March 2025. Only two respondents said they would opt for peso bonds.
这种压倒性的偏好标志着一种防御性转变，因为持续高企的油价威胁着将生活成本维持在高位，并侵蚀名义比索债务的回报。智利国有炼油厂Enap在过去几个月已宣布连续五次燃油价格上涨，其影响已波及食品和交通成本。由豪尔赫·塞莱维（Jorge Selaive）领导的渣打银行经济学家预计，通胀将在11月达到5%，为三年来最高。
The overwhelming preference marks a defensive turn as persistently expensive oil threatens to keep the cost of living elevated and erode returns on nominal peso debt. Chile’s state oil refiner Enap has announced five consecutive fuel-price increases in recent months, with the impact spilling over into food and transportation costs. Scotiabank economists led by Jorge Selaive see inflation hitting 5% by November, the highest in three years.
在期限方面，约78%的受访者偏好期限为一至五年的CPI挂钩债券。仅有一人偏好六至十一年到期的票据，另一人则偏好十二年以上的期限。随着投资者涌入UF债券，近45%的受访者预计，未来一个月通胀挂钩票据的收益率将下降。
In terms of duration, around 78% of those polled prefer CPI-linked bonds maturing in one to five years. Just one preferred notes due in six to 11 years, while another favored maturities beyond 12 years. As investors pile into UF debt, almost 45% of respondents expect yields on inflation-linked notes to decline over the coming month.
通胀不太可能在短期内缓解。巴克莱银行的基准情景假设，油价将在2027年上半年维持在每桶约110美元，且当地经济将开始从今年的停滞中复苏，该行预计这种组合将使通胀在3月前维持在接近5%的水平——远高于3%的目标。
Inflation is unlikely to ease off any time soon. Barclays’ baseline scenario assumes oil prices will remain around $110 a barrel in the first half of 2027, and that the local economy will start to recover from this year’s stagnation, a combination it expects will keep inflation close to 5% through March — well above the 3% target.
持续的价格压力还可能加强人们对央行将收紧货币政策的预期，进一步削弱名义比索债务的吸引力。约44%的受访者预计，未来一个月比索收益率曲线将陡峭化。
Persistent price pressures could also bolster expectations that the central bank will tighten monetary policy, adding to the case against nominal peso debt. About 44% of respondents expect the peso yield curve to steepen over the next month.
市场已经开始提前押注借贷成本上升。智利市场预期的政策利率在六个月后约为4.8%，指向从当前水平大约上调四分之一个百分点。仅两个月前，交易员们还只将此类举措定价在一年内。
Markets are already bringing forward bets on higher borrowing costs. Chile’s market-implied policy rate stands at about 4.8% six months from now, pointing to roughly a quarter-point increase from the current level. Just two months ago, traders were pricing in such a move only within a year.
然而，目前智利央行官员仍坚守立场，决策者上周将基准利率维持在4.5%不变，同时承认“通胀风险已大幅增加”。除两名受访者外，其余所有人都预计央行将在12月会议上维持利率不变，尽管风险越来越倾向于加息。这是调查重启以来，首次有超过一名参与者预测下一次决策会加息。
For now however, Chile’s central bankers are holding their ground with policymakers keeping the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.5% last week, while acknowledging that “inflation risks have increased considerably.”All but two respondents expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at its December meeting, though the risks are increasingly tilted toward a hike. It is the first time since the survey resumed that more than one participant has forecast an increase at the next decision.
“如果能源、交通和比索的走势导致通胀预期持续上升，智利央行可能被迫采取行动，”伊塔乌银行经济学家安德烈斯·佩雷斯领衔的团队上周在一份报告中写道。
“If energy, transportation and peso developments feed into a sustained rise in inflation expectations, the Chilean central bank could be forced to act,” Itau economists led by Andrés Pérez wrote in a note last week.