据策略师称，自伊朗战争爆发以来，菲律宾债券是新兴市场表现最差的资产，由于通胀加速、比索贬值以及拍卖需求疲软，其情绪受到压制，预计将进一步下跌。
Philippine bonds, the worst-performing in emerging markets since the Iran war began, are set for further losses as faster inflation, a sliding peso and softer auction demand weigh on sentiment, strategists say.
上个月，这个群岛国家的通胀率同比加速至7.2%，增加了央行再次加息的可能性，并对该国主权债务构成压力。比索今年已暴跌6.3%，同时其与债券收益率的相关性也升至历史高位。
Inflation in the archipelago accelerated to 7.2% last month from a year earlier, boosting the odds of another interest-rate increase by the central bank and weighing on the nation’s sovereign debt. The peso has tumbled 6.3% this year, while its correlation to bond yields has also climbed to a record.
马尼拉黎刹商业银行（Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.）经济学家迈克尔·里卡福特（Michael Ricafort）表示：“在第四季度，菲律宾比索政府债券面临着一连串的风险。”他指出，这些风险包括“因伊朗战争持续而居高不下的油价、因超级厄尔尼诺干旱导致的食物价格上涨，以及美元兑比索汇率升高的影响”。
“Philippine peso government bonds are seeing a litany of risks in the final quarter,” said Michael Ricafort, an economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. in Manila. These include “elevated oil prices due to the ongoing Iran war, rising food prices due to the super El Niño drought and the impact from higher dollar-peso,” he said.
根据彭博指数，自2月底伊朗战争爆发以来，菲律宾债券以美元计价的投资者损失已达13%。这是该指数追踪的19个新兴市场中的最大跌幅。
Philippine bonds have handed investors a loss of 13% in dollar terms since the beginning of the Iran war at the end of February, according to a Bloomberg index. That’s the biggest decline among 19 emerging markets tracked by the gauges.
周三，该国10年期债券收益率跳升至7.99%，而2月27日仅为5.92%，创下2018年末以来的最高水平。
The nation’s 10-year bond yield jumped to 7.99% on Wednesday, up from just 5.92% on Feb. 27 and was at its highest level since late 2018.
食品价格上涨推动了通胀。强厄尔尼诺现象可能进一步威胁农业生产，并推高食品成本，尽管具体影响程度仍不确定。在新兴亚洲国家，食品在消费者价格指数篮子中的权重最高之一。
Rising food prices have contributed to inflation. A strong El Niño may further threaten production and push food costs even higher, though the extent of any impact remains uncertain. Food has one of the highest weightings in consumer price index baskets in emerging Asia.
根据彭博的分析，在2023年和2024年厄尔尼诺现象达到峰值时，菲律宾债券也曾承受压力。
Philippine bonds also came under pressure when El Niño last peaked in 2023 and 2024, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
比索走弱的预期也是该国政府债券面临的威胁。根据彭博自2011年以来的数据，美元兑比索汇率与该国10年期债券收益率之间的90天相关性在9月升至0.63的历史纪录。读数为1意味着两者完全同步变动。
Expectations of a weaker peso is also a threat to the nation’s government bonds. The 90-day correlation between the dollar-peso exchange rate and the nation’s 10-year bond yield climbed to a record 0.63 in September, based on data compiled by Bloomberg starting in 2011. A reading of 1 would mean the two move in lockstep.
近期政府债券发行需求恶化，投资者要求更高的收益率以补偿各种风险。
Demand has worsened at recent government bond sales as investors demanded higher yields to compensate them for the various risks.
彭博社汇总的数据显示，9月2日举行的五年期债券拍卖，投标覆盖率仅为1.22倍，是该期限自2013年以来的最低水平。随后，政府取消了原定于9月22日举行的同期限债券发行。
An auction of five-year debt on Sept. 2 drew a bid-to-cover ratio of just 1.22 times, the lowest for the tenor since 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The government then canceled a sale of the same maturity scheduled for Sept. 22.
新加坡Robeco公司亚洲主权策略师Philip McNicholas表示：“尽管收益率开始变得有吸引力，但整体财政立场和居高不下的通胀等问题依然存在，这使我无法对菲律宾债券转为看涨。”
“There are still lingering issues such as the overall fiscal stance and elevated inflation that prevent me from turning bullish” on Philippine bonds, even as yields are starting to look interesting, said Philip McNicholas, Asia sovereign strategist at Robeco in Singapore.