周二晚上，距离选举日还有一周，玛吉·奥尼尔带着丈夫和两个女儿——分别六岁和十岁——去格林维尔听安妮·安德鲁斯博士演讲。安德鲁斯是一名儿科医生，正试图在深红州南卡罗来纳州翻转一个参议院席位。
On Tuesday evening, a week before Election Day, Maggie O’Neal took her husband and two daughters—six and 10 years old—to see Dr. Annie Andrews, the pediatrician trying to flip a Senate seat in deep-red South Carolina, speak in Greenville.
奥尼尔在共和党家庭长大，但投票给民主党，她“非常早就加入了安妮博士的支持阵营”。大约十年来，她担任临终关怀社会工作者；她的父亲是一名退休医生，丈夫是一名执业医生。在安德鲁斯身上，她看到了对多年学习的奉献——在这位民主党挑战者的例子中，是在辛辛那提大学医学院学习——以及对基于证据的研究的承诺。
O’Neal, who grew up in a Republican household but votes Democrat, was “very early on the Dr. Annie bandwagon.”For about a decade, she worked as a hospice social worker; her father is a retired physician and her husband a practicing doctor. In Andrews, she recognized the dedication to years of study—in the Democratic challenger’s case at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine—and the commitment to evidence-based research.
“我遇到过的、也见过接受医学培训的最强大、最令人惊叹的医生都是女性，”39岁的奥尼尔说。“她们为了成功和出类拔萃所付出的努力，以及所承受的一切，说明了很多问题。”在竞选活动现场，奥尼尔的大女儿举着一块写着“如果我能投票，我会投给安妮医生”的牌子。
“The strongest, most amazing physicians I’ve ever met and watched go through medical training are women,” O’Neal, 39, said. “The amount of work they have to do to succeed and thrive, and what they have to endure says a lot about her.”At the campaign event, O’Neal’s oldest daughter carried a sign that read, “If I could vote, I’d vote for Dr. Annie.”
“她非常鼓舞人心，”奥尼尔说。她是一名出生于哥伦比亚的领养儿童，童年时入了美国籍。她的父母是共和党人，对特朗普总统领导下的党派方向感到失望，但他们也支持安德鲁斯。她的一些朋友在选票上全程选共和党候选人——除了参议院。“她在两党之间走钢丝的头脑非常清醒，”奥尼尔继续说道，“我认为这正是南卡罗来纳州目前所需要的。”
“She’s very inspiring,” said O’Neal, a Colombian-born adoptee who became a naturalized citizen as a child. Her parents, Republicans who have grown disenchanted with the direction of the party under President Donald Trump, also support Andrews. Some of her friends are picking Republican candidates all the way down the ballot—except for the Senate. “She has a really good head on her shoulders for straddling the line of both parties,” O’Neal continued, “which I think is what South Carolina needs right now.”
在关键的选举之夜来临之际，安德鲁斯与达琳·格雷厄姆陷入了出人意料的激烈竞争。格雷厄姆是一名政治新手，她在七月其兄、参议员林赛·格雷厄姆去世后继承了该席位，现在希望获得完整的六年任期。共和党候选人的资历——她的家族姓氏以及特朗普总统的背书——让棕榈树州的选民们质疑她是否不过是一个“裙带参议员”，尤其是与安德鲁斯来之不易的医学专业资历和政治竞选经历相比较时。
Ahead of a pivotal election night, Andrews is in an unexpectedly tight contest against Darline Graham, a political novice who inherited the seat following the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, in July and now hopes to serve a full six-year term. The Republican candidate’s credentials—her family name and an endorsement from President Donald Trump—have voters in the Palmetto State questioning if she’s not just a “nepo senator” especially when contrasted to Andrews’ hard-earned medical bona fides and political campaign history The result, a race that should be a safe GOP hold but Fox News has moved to a toss-up, has Republicans worried In the two weeks leading up to the election, Trump rallied twice in the state he carried by almost 18 points in 2024, and the GOP top Senate PAC has pledged $5 million to prop up Graham and prevent a Democratic pickup that would be one of the biggest upsets in the country.
结果，一场本应是共和党稳拿的选举，但福克斯新闻已将其列为摇摆之战，这让共和党人感到担忧。在选举前两周，特朗普两次在该州举行集会，该州他在2024年以近18个百分点的优势获胜；共和党最高参议院政治行动委员会承诺提供500万美元来支持格雷厄姆，防止民主党翻盘，这将是美国最大的冷门之一。就连这位代理参议员本人——她似乎并不特别享受竞选——也承认对民调感到“有点紧张”。
Even the interim senator herself, who doesn’t seem to particularly enjoy campaigning, acknowledged feeling a “little nervous” about the polls.
“民主党在州政坛很久没有什么值得兴奋的事了。”弗尔曼大学教授丹妮尔·文森说。上一次民主党人在南卡罗来纳州赢得参议院席位是在1998年，本世纪以来，没有任何民主党候选人距离胜利不足九个百分点。
“Democrats haven’t had much to get excited about in state politics for a long time.”“Democrats haven’t had much to get excited about in state politics for a long time,” said Furman University professor Danielle Vinson. The last time a Democrat won a Senate seat in South Carolina was in 1998, and no Democratic candidate has come within nine points of a victory this century.
文森最初对显示竞争激烈的民调持怀疑态度。最新的锡耶纳民调显示两位候选人基本持平，格雷厄姆领先不到一个百分点。2020年，南卡罗来纳州民主党前主席杰米·哈里森曾一度在误差范围内，但最终以10个百分点的差距败给林赛·格雷厄姆，民主党人的希望落空。今年，哈里森表示，该州民主党的“星辰正在排列”，黑人选民的强劲投票率可能有助于安德鲁斯获胜。
Vinson was initially skeptical of the polls showing a competitive race. The most recent /Siena poll had both candidates effectively tied, with Graham leading by less than one percentage point. In 2020, Democrats had their hopes crushed when Jaime Harrison, former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party, appeared within the margin of error, but ended up losing to Lindsey Graham by 10 points. This year, Harrison has said the “stars are aligning” for Democrats in the state and a strong Black voter turnout could help Andrews’ chances.
特朗普多次访南卡罗来纳州，为他亲自挑选的候选人助选，这也让文森相信，这次可能与众不同。“这让我觉得，他们自己的内部民调正在引发疑问和担忧，因为总统没有什么充分理由要为一场参议院竞选来南卡罗来纳州，”她说。此外，安德鲁斯的庭院标语牌出现在格林维尔那些一向保守的地区，这让她觉得，一些共和党选民“并不舒服”投票支持格雷厄姆，后者此前曾担任南卡罗来纳州盲人委员会负责人。
Trump’s multiple stops in South Carolina to try and boost one of his handpicked candidates have also persuaded Vinson that this time it might be different. “That suggests to me that their own internal polling is raising questions and concerns because there’s no really good reason that the president should have to come to South Carolina for a Senate race,” she said. That, and the fact that Andrews’ yard signs have cropped up in reliably conservative areas of Greenville, are an indication to her that some Republican voters simply “are not comfortable” voting for Graham, whose previous professional stint was as the head of South Carolina’s Commission for the Blind.
文森说，如果安德鲁斯获胜，“民主党人会兴奋得蹦起来。”但即使她只是接近获胜，“也会提醒人们，如果你想看到改变，就必须出现。”一次险胜也可能重振该党士气，展望未来，南卡罗来纳州将举办2028年民主党总统初选的第一场投票。
If Andrews wins, Vinson said, “Democrats will be bouncing from the ceilings.”But even if she just comes close enough to pulling it off, “it will be a reminder that if you want to see change, you have to show up.”A near-win could also re-energize the party looking ahead, with South Carolina holding the first 2028 Democratic presidential primary.
安德鲁斯出生于肯塔基州，是三个孩子的母亲，曾在南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿的南卡罗来纳大学医学院儿童医院担任儿科住院医师14年，治疗患癌和枪伤的儿童。2018年佛罗里达州帕克兰校园枪击事件发生后，安德鲁斯加入了争取枪支安全法律的“母亲要求行动”运动，后来成为一家枪支暴力预防组织的顾问。
A Kentucky-born mother of three, Andrews worked as a pediatric hospitalist at the Medical University of South Carolina Children’s Hospital in Charleston for 14 years, treating kids with cancer and gunshot wounds. After the 2018 Parkland school shooting in Florida, Andrews joined the Moms Demand Action movement that fights for gun safety laws and later became an adviser for a gun violence prevention organization.
2022年，她参选国会议员，试图击败众议员南希·梅斯，最终以14个百分点落败。安德鲁斯随后成立了一个倡导儿童权益的政治团体。“正是这些促使我不再袖手旁观，”她在十月与哈里森的一次谈话中表示。“正是目睹这些政策失败的模式出现在我们医院的诊室里，并想要对此采取行动。”现在，势头似乎站在安德鲁斯一边。
In 2022, she ran for Congress to unseat Rep. Nancy Mace, ultimately trailing her by 14 points. Andrews then launched a political group advocating for children. “That’s what drove me off the sidelines,” she said in a conversation with Harrison in October. “It’s witnessing these patterns of policy failures showing up in our hospital exam rooms and wanting to do something about it.”Now, momentum appears to be on Andrews’ side.
周五，致力于选举民主党人的参议院多数党政治行动委员会发布了第一支广告，这是一项耗资75万美元、旨在最后关头助她获胜的11小时冲刺计划的一部分，该广告将格雷厄姆描述为“特殊利益集团的空壳人物”。安德鲁斯实现曾经不可想象的胜利之路微乎其微，可能取决于这一信息是否能引起那些不愿被迫接受一个令其缺乏信心的候选人的共和党和独立选民的共鸣。
On Friday, the Senate Majority PAC to elect Democrats released the first ad in a $750,000, 11th-hour push to get her over the finish line, painting Graham as “an empty suit for special interests.”Andrews’ slim path to a one-time unthinkable victory may hinge on that message resonating with Republican and independent voters who would rather not be force-fed a candidate who inspires little confidence.
“我们被告知，她只是那个席位的临时填补者，南卡罗来纳州选民将有机会投票给他们认为最合适的人，”自称保守派共和党人、在初选中投票给美国众议员拉尔夫·诺曼的乔治·卡尔佩珀 Jr. 说。“我们有点措手不及，因为一个席位不应该就这样给某个人。”
“We were led to believe that she was just a placeholder for that seat and South Carolinians would have the opportunity to vote for whomever they thought would be the best,” said George Culpepper Jr., who identifies as a conservative Republican and picked US Rep. Ralph Norman in the primary. “We were kind of caught off guard because a seat shouldn’t just be given to someone.”
“我们受到铁杆保守派的施压，他们认为你必须投票给达琳·格雷厄姆，因为她名字旁边有个‘R’。我们过去这么做过，结果被耍了。”
“We get hounded on by hardcore conservatives who believe that you need to vote for Darline Graham because she has an ‘R’ by her name. We’ve done that in the past and we’ve got screwed.”
“当候选人被强行塞给我们时，抱歉，但我们南卡罗来纳州人有独立的思想，”他补充道。“我们不会屈服于被告知如何投票、投给谁。”
“When a candidate is shoved down our throats, I’m sorry, but our minds are independent here in South Carolina,” he added. “We won’t bow down to being told how and who to vote for.”
52岁的卡尔佩珀是格里尔居民，有三个孩子，他自称是特朗普总统的长期支持者，但将汽油价格因伊朗战争而飙升的责任归咎于特朗普政府。他怀疑格雷厄姆是否会支持保守派事业，称她“仍然是个未知数”。他还指出，格雷厄姆在初选辩论中就台湾和南海的外交政策问题出现失误，回应说“国家安全不是我的强项”，这对他来说是一个“转折点”。卡尔佩珀说，许多保守派要么跨党派投票给安德鲁斯，要么投票给诺曼。
A Greer resident and father of three, 52-year-old Culpepper described himself as a long-time supporter of President Trump but blamed his administration for the Iran War-fueled spike in gas prices. He’s skeptical that Graham would stand for conservative causes, saying she’s “still an unknown.”He also pointed to the primary debate in which Graham fumbled a foreign policy question about Taiwan and the South China Sea—responding that “national security is not my thing”—as a “turning point” for him. Culpepper said many conservatives are either crossing party lines to vote for Andrews or Norman.
卡尔·佩珀决定投民主党候选人一票，在看到一则竞选广告后，他将自己的名字加入了“支持安妮博士的共和党人”名单，广告中她承诺要“与华盛顿特区的‘沼泽’作斗争”。“她有六年时间证明自己，”佩珀说，并表示她可能会“像约翰·费特曼或克斯滕·西内玛一样，真正成为一名独立人士”。如果她做不到，下次选举时可以将她投票出局。“我们需要一名斗士，”他继续说。“我们不需要一个会向某个政党低头的人。”
Culpepper decided to vote for the Democrat, adding his name to a “Republicans for Dr. Annie”list after seeing a campaign ad in which she vows to “fight the swamp” of Washington, DC. “She has six years to prove herself,” Culpepper said, offering that she could “truly be an independent” like a John Fetterman or a Kyrsten Sinema. If she doesn’t, she can be voted out the next time around. “We need a fighter,” he continued. “We don’t need someone that’s going to kowtow to a certain party.”
卡尔·霍坎森是一名前共和党人，现为无党派人士，从未投过特朗普一票，他说格雷厄姆的竞选“是个笑话”，并且“她甚至连稿子都读不顺”，指的是她在最近一次参议院听证会上对前特别检察官杰克·史密斯的质询。他还批评她的政治广告“充满谎言和半真半假的话”。格雷厄姆的竞选团队将安德鲁斯称为“激进分子”。在罗克希尔的一场集会上，这位共和党人说她的对手“简直疯疯癫癫”。
Carl Hokanson, a Republican-turned-independent who never voted for Trump, said Graham’s candidacy “is a joke” and that “she can’t even read from a prepared speech,” referring to her questioning of former special counsel Jack Smith in a recent Senate hearing. He also criticized her political ads as “filled with lies and half-truths.”Graham’s campaign has labeled Andrews a “radical.”At a rally in Rock Hill, the Republican said her opponent was “plain old batshit crazy.”
特朗普也重复了这些攻击，称安德鲁斯是“狂热的跨性别活动家”。在一则引发LGBTQ+权益团体反弹的广告中，这位儿科医生表示，她反对“生物男性”参加女子体育比赛，并且从未对未成年人进行过“变性手术”。
Trump has echoed those attacks, calling Andrews a “fanatical transgender activist.”In one of her ads, which sparked backlash from LGBTQ+ rights groups, the pediatrician says she’s against “biological men” playing women’s sports and never performed “gender surgery” on minors.
安德鲁斯一直试图回避文化战争的争议焦点，转而关注南卡罗来纳州选民对价格和医疗保健的担忧，她也像佩珀那样争取选民支持。她喜欢说，她的竞选活动面向所有人，不分党派归属，如果当选，她将成为一个跨党派合作的“独立声音”。安德鲁斯经常提到她的共和党父亲，并获得了前共和党州长大卫·比斯利和州议员卡特里娜·谢利的背书。强硬保守派国会议员的儿子沃伦·诺曼明确表示，他不会支持格雷厄姆，并“倾向于”支持安德鲁斯。
Andrews, who has tried to deflect culture war flashpoints and focus on South Carolinians’ concerns about affordability and healthcare, has been courting voters just like Culpepper. She likes to say her campaign is for everyone, regardless of party affiliation, and that, if elected, she will be an “independent voice” working across the aisle. Andrews often nods to her Republican dad and has received endorsements from former GOP Governor David Beasley and State Senator Katrina Shealy. Warren Norman, son of the hardline conservative congressman, made it known that he wouldn’t be supporting Graham and was “leaning” towards Andrews.
“她采取的是非常务实的方式，”文森说，“只想解决问题，不一定非要从党派角度出发。”35岁的沃拉拉居民约翰·阿吉拉尔经营一家狗训练生意，他欣赏安德鲁斯对“现实问题”的关注。阿吉拉尔是墨西哥和危地马拉移民的儿子，其父母在罗纳德·里根总统任期内获得了合法身份。他说自己此前曾投给特朗普，但对特朗普的大规模驱逐政策已感到失望，并担心格雷厄姆会成为政府的“完全橡皮图章”。
“She’s somebody who’s taking the approach of being very pragmatic,” said Vinson, “and just wanting to address problems and not necessarily doing it from a partisan perspective.”John Aguilar, a 35-year-old resident of Walhalla who runs a dog training business, appreciates Andrews’ attention to “real-life problems.”The son of Mexican and Guatemalan immigrants who were able to obtain legal status during the Ronald Reagan presidency, Aguilar said he had voted for Trump before, but has soured on his mass deportation policies and fears Graham will just be a “complete rubber stamp” for the administration.
“我相信[安妮·安德鲁斯]能做到，我也觉得共和党也认为她可能能成就这件事，仅仅是基于他们在一个+18州投入的大量精力和资金，而这个州本不该是这样，”他说。
“I believe [Annie Andrews] can do it and I feel like the GOP also believes that she might be able to pull this one off just just based on the the amount of effort and money they’re dumping into a +18 state that shouldn’t be that way,” he said.
住在霍里县的一名退休人士因认为投票应当保密而要求匿名，她说三个月前她不相信安德鲁斯有胜算，但“形势正在转变”。她过去曾投给共和党候选人，但不认为“格雷厄姆女士”代表南卡罗来纳州的劳动人民，并预测其他人也将在选举日把人放在政党之上。“我不在乎你有多红，过去几年你多么自豪地戴着那顶帽子，”她告诉我，“你把那顶帽子摘下来。”
A retiree who lives in Horry County and asked not to be named because she believes the vote should be private said three months ago she didn’t believe Andrews stood a chance, but that “the tide is turning.”She has voted for Republican candidates in the past, but doesn’t think the “Graham lady” represents the working people of South Carolina and predicted that others will also put the person above the party on Election Day. “I don’t care how red you are and how proudly you’ve worn that hat in the last couple of years,” she told me, “you put that hat down.”
48岁、育有六个孩子、终身支持共和党的迈克尔出于报复担忧，要求只透露他的名字。在他看来，这次选举是对特朗普和该党的公投。他对伊朗战争和40万亿美元的国家债务感到愤怒。“现在简直疯了，”他说。“我再也不会投这些人的票了，除非他们开始看起来像我小时候认识的那些共和党人。我受够了。”
For Michael, a 48-year-old father of six and a lifelong Republican who asked to be identified by his first name only out of fear of retribution, this election is a referendum on Trump and the party. He’s furious about the war in Iran and a $40 trillion national debt“It’s crazy-land at this point,” he said. “I’m never voting for these people again until they start looking like the Republicans I grew up with. I’m done.”
他给选票上的民主党人投了票，并且尽管住在该州以共和党为主的地区，还是在自家院子里为安德鲁斯竖起了标语。和其他人一样，迈克尔不信任格雷厄姆能够对抗政府。“她并不真正代表南卡罗来纳州，”他说。“她代表的是特朗普。”他说，安德鲁斯很可能是一位“中间派”参议员，并补充道：“这就是这个国家需要回归的：两党合作。”
He voted for Democrats across the ballot and, despite living in a predominantly red part of the state, put a sign up for Andrews on his yard. Like others, Michael doesn’t trust Graham to stand up to the administration. “She’s not really representing South Carolina,” he said. “She’s representing Trump.”Andrews would likely be a “middle of the road” senator, he said, adding, “That’s what we need to get back to in this country: bipartisanship.”
来自查尔斯顿的芮妮·哈维曾参与安德鲁斯2022年竞选国会的失败竞选活动，并在她的参议院竞选引起全国关注之前就早早支持她。“安妮提供解决方案，”哈维说，并指出她有几位投特朗普票的亲戚正在为安德鲁斯投票。“她一直是个解决问题的人。这就是她在病人床边所要做的。”
Renee Harvey of Charleston worked on Andrews’ unsuccessful campaign for Congress in 2022 and was an early backer of her Senate run even before it drew national attention. “Annie is offering solutions,” Harvey said, noting that she has several Trump-voting relatives who are casting a ballot for Andrews. “She’s always been a problem solver. That’s what she has to do at the bedside of her patients.”
经过数十年的共和党执政，哈维认为南卡罗来纳州民众已准备好迎来变革，并有望“震惊”全国。
After decades of Republican rule, Harvey thinks South Carolinians are ready for a change and poised to “shock” the country.
“我们一遍又一遍地做着同一件事，却期待不同的结果，”她说。“我认为人们开始醒悟了。”
“We’ve been doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” she said. “I think people are are starting to wake up.”
“如果有人能翻转这个席位，”哈维补充说，“那一定是安妮·安德鲁斯。”
“If anybody is going to flip this seat,” Harvey added, “it’s going to be Annie Andrews.”