哥伦比亚，南卡罗来纳州 — 达林·格雷厄姆参议员在周日晚上上辩论舞台时肩负着一项关键任务：挽回面子，安抚共和党人的紧张情绪。
COLUMBIA, S.C. — Sen. Darline Graham has a critical mission when she takes the debate stage Sunday night: Save face and calm Republican nerves.
格雷厄姆是共和党的政治新手，而安妮·安德鲁斯是民主党的儿科医生，她们将在南卡罗来纳州参议院选举的首场也是唯一一场辩论中正面交锋 — — 这是一场在红得发紫的棕榈州出乎意料的激烈竞争。
Graham, the GOP political novice, and Annie Andrews, the Democratic pediatrician, are set to square off in the first and only debate of South Carolina’s Senate race — an unexpectedly competitive contest in the ruby-red Palmetto State.
对格雷厄姆而言，辩论舞台是充满陷阱的地形 — — 但也是一个至关重要的机会。在八月的初选辩论中，这位南卡罗来纳州共和党人承认自己“对国家安全不太了解”，这一言论引发了病毒式传播的时刻，并引发了人们对她是否具备担任完整六年参议员任期资格的严重担忧。
For Graham, the debate is treacherous terrain — but a crucial opportunity. During a primary debate in August, the South Carolina Republican conceded that she’s “not that informed on national security,” sparking a viral moment and raising serious concerns about her qualifications for the full six-year Senate term.
此后，她在初选中以微弱优势击败了拉尔夫·诺曼众议员，民调显示她现在与安德鲁斯势均力敌。全国共和党人日益紧张，在中期竞选的最后阶段派出重量级人物和投入大量资金，希望能推动格雷厄姆冲过终点线。南卡罗来纳州上次选出民主党人进入美国参议院是在1998年。
Since then, she eked out a primary victory over Rep. Ralph Norman and is now running neck-and-neck against Andrews, polls show. National Republicans are growing nervous, sending in big names and money in the final stretch of midterm campaigning in hopes of nudging Graham over the finish line. The last time South Carolina elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was in 1998.
周五在查尔斯顿的一次竞选活动中，格雷厄姆与参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（R-S.D.）和参议员蒂姆·斯科特（R-S.C.），即参议院共和党竞选委员会主席同台亮相，她听起来既有信心又清醒。
During a campaign stop in Charleston on Friday alongside Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and Sen. Tim Scott Scott, R-S.C., the chairman of the Senate GOP campaign arm, Graham sounded convinced yet clear-eyed.
“竞争将会非常激烈，但我有信心我们会赢得胜利，”格雷厄姆说。
“It is going to be a close race, but I feel confident that we’re going to win,” Graham said.
“我们将在这里的南卡罗来纳州守住共和党的席位，”她对记者说。“这一点非常重要。”周日晚上的辩论 — — 正好是在达林·格雷厄姆的哥哥、已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆去世三个月后举行 — — 将成为这场竞选的关键转折点，届时共和党候选人将重返辩论舞台，以赎回今年夏天的失误。自由党候选人卡西·惠特纳也将参加此次辩论。
“We’re going to hold the Republican seat here in South Carolina,” she told reporters. “That is so important.”Sunday night’s debate — which comes exactly three months after the passing of Darline Graham’s brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham — will be a key inflection point in the race, as the GOP candidate returns to the debate stage to redeem herself from this summer’s blunder. Libertarian candidate Kasie Whitener will also participate in the debate.
尽管格雷厄姆对竞选充满信心，但最近的举动表明，顶层共和党人实际上已经紧张得坐立不安。
And while Graham may be confident in the race, recent moves show that top Republicans are downright jittery.
也许最能说明问题的迹象是，与图恩结盟的超级政治行动委员会（PAC）参议院领导基金正向这场竞赛注入500万美元，作为“保险政策”，这一消息首次由Axios报道。
In perhaps the most telling sign, Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Thune, is funneling $5 million into the race as “an insurance policy,” Axios first reported.
此前，特朗普总统的超级政治行动委员会MAGA Inc.在初选期间向格雷厄姆——特朗普手挑选的候选人——投入了超过80万美元。
It came after President Donald Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., poured more than $800,000 into the race for Graham, Trump’s hand-picked candidate, during the primary.
除了资金之外，特朗普很可能在选举日前返回南卡罗来纳州。一位熟悉此事的消息人士告诉MS NOW，他在初选期间曾在默特尔海滩与格雷厄姆一起举行集会。
Beyond the money, Trump is likely to return to South Carolina ahead of Election Day, a source familiar with the matter told MS NOW, after he rallied with Graham in Myrtle Beach during the primary.
然而，这次访问正值他在该州的明星效应受到质疑之时：尽管特朗普在2024年赢得南卡罗来纳州时领先超过17个百分点，但格雷厄姆在特别初选决胜轮中仅以不到5个百分点的优势获胜，而近半数州选民支持诺曼。
The visit, however, would come as his star power in the state has come into question: After Trump carried South Carolina by more than 17 percentage points in 2024, Graham won the special primary runoff by less than 5 percentage points, with nearly half of the state backing Norman.
特朗普正将其标志性修辞注入这场竞赛。上周，他在Truth Social上的一篇帖子中称安德鲁斯为“安妮‘跨性别者’安德鲁斯”，使用反跨性别者的贬义词来指代民主党候选人，正如共和党人在2024年所做的那样，他们正在这一问题上加大力度。
The president is infusing his signature rhetoric into the race. In a Truth Social post last week, Trump referred to Andrews as “Annie ‘Trannie’ Andrews,” evoking an anti-transgender slur to refer to the Democratic candidate as Republicans lean in on that issue, as they did in 2024.
安德鲁斯通过一段直接面对镜头的视频作出回应，她在视频中事实核查了特朗普的说法，但未提及他的名字。“政治可能变得相当丑陋，当它变得丑陋时，你有权听到真相，”安德鲁斯说。
Andrews responded with a direct-to-camera video, fact-checking Trump’s claims without mentioning his name. “Politics can get pretty ugly, and when it does, you deserve to hear the truth,” Andrews said.
“我希望你能清晰地听到我说的话：我不支持生物男性参加女子体育运动，我也不支持，并且从未为未成年人进行过性别手术，”她补充道。
“I want you to hear me loud and clear: I don’t support biological men playing women’s sports, and I don’t support and haven’t ever performed gender surgery for minors,” she added.
特朗普和图恩并不是唯一在激烈竞赛中前往棕榈州的知名共和党人。
Trump and Thune aren’t the only high-profile Republicans making their way to the Palmetto State amid the heated race.
周四——就在辩论前几天——司法部长托德·布兰奇在查尔斯顿举办了一场圆桌会议，与格雷厄姆及其他人讨论减少犯罪的努力。当被问及为何此时选择访问查尔斯顿，正值关系国会控制权的高风险选举即将到来之际，他未能给出答案。
In a move that raised eyebrows, Attorney General Todd Blanche on Thursday — days before the debate — hosted a roundtable with Graham and others in Charleston to discuss efforts to reduce crime. When asked why he decided to visit Charleston now, on the cusp of high-stakes elections that will determine which party controls Congress, he didn’t have an answer.
“这是个好问题，我不知道，”布兰奇说。“我为什么在这里而不是，我想，南卡罗来纳州的其他地方，我也不知道。”共和党的集体惊慌并非毫无根据。
“That’s a great question, I don’t know,” Blanche said. “Why I’m here as opposed to, I suppose somewhere else in South Carolina, I don’t know.”The collective GOP freakout is not unfounded.
最近的民调显示，格雷厄姆仅以微弱优势领先安德鲁斯。塔拉法格集团（Trafalgar Group）是一家共和党民调机构，9月份发布的一项调查显示，格雷厄姆以46%对45%的微弱优势领先安德鲁斯，仍有4%的选举者未决定。就在同一时期，库克政治报告（Cook Political Report）将南卡罗来纳州的参议院竞赛向民主党倾斜，将标签从“稳固共和党”调整为“可能共和党”。MS NOW目前将该竞赛评为“可能共和党获胜”。
Recent polls show Graham barely leading Andrews. Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster, released a survey in September showing Graham ahead of Andrews by one percentage point, 46% to 45%, with 4% of voters still undecided. Around the same time, the Cook Political Report shifted South Carolina’s Senate race towards Democrats, changing the label from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”MS NOW currently rates the race as a likely Republican win.
周日晚上的辩论发生在格雷厄姆宣誓就职国会不到三个月后，这是她政治生涯过山车般旅程中的最新一站。
Sunday night’s debate comes less than three months after Graham was sworn into Congress, the latest stop on the roller-coaster ride that has been her journey in politics.
格雷厄姆此前从未担任过任何选举职务，直到南卡罗来纳州州长亨利·麦克马斯特在特朗普的建议下任命她完成其兄弟的任期。随后，特朗普公开鼓励格雷厄姆参加竞选，以争取完整的六年任期，她就这样做了，在竞争激烈的共和党初选中击败了一众对手，成功进入紧张的大选。
Graham had never served in elected office until South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to finish her brother’s term at Trump’s urging. The president then publicly encouraged Graham to enter the race to run for the full six-year term, which she did, beating a crowded field of Republicans in a competitive primary to land her in a tight general election.
在华盛顿的三个月里，格雷厄姆一直难以定义自己想成为怎样的政治家，她的政策立场模糊不清，在回答政策问题时也举步维艰。
In her three months in Washington, Graham has had trouble defining the kind of politician she wants to be, offering amorphous policy positions and struggling to answer policy questions.
在竞选途中，她一直在宣扬保守立场，比如反对社会主义，但却没有提供具体细节。她坚持自己比兄弟更保守，主张废除冗长辩论（filibuster），并表示她在移民问题上会比已故参议员走得更远。而在国家安全问题上——这是她兄弟在国会山的重点关注——她在回答关于台湾的问题时显得举步维艰。南卡罗来纳州的一些选民仍在权衡他们的支持。
During campaign stops she has touted conservative positions like fighting socialism but hasn’t offered specifics. She insists she’s more conservative than her brother, voicing support for abolishing the filibuster and saying she’d go farther than the late senator on immigration. And on national security — which was her brother’s key focus on Capitol Hill — she struggled to field a question about Taiwan. Some voters in South Carolina are still weighing their support.
胡安·罗伯茨，一名来自哥伦比亚的36岁IHOP员工，告诉MS NOW，尽管格雷厄姆上个月的辩论表现引发了“高度警戒的担忧”，但他倾向于支持她。当被问及她是否有足够经验时，他指向了格雷厄姆这个名字。
Juan Roberts, a 36-year-old IHOP employee from Columbia, told MS NOW he was leaning toward supporting Graham, even though her debate performance last month prompted “high-alert concern.”When asked if she has enough experience, he pointed to the Graham name.
“我们看到她的亲戚是谁，林赛·格雷厄姆先生，所以那里有很多经验，”他说。“她见过起起落落、好坏丑陋。”
“We see who she’s related to, Mr. Lindsey Graham, so there’s a lot of experience in there,” he said. “She’s seen the ups and downs, the good, the bad and the ugly.”
来自哥伦比亚的65岁退休人员罗恩达表示，她“可能”会投票支持格雷厄姆，但不是因为她的资历——而是因为她希望共和党在参议院获得多数席位，以支持特朗普政府在南美洲的努力。
Rhonda, a 65-year-old retiree from Columbia, said she’s “probably” voting for Graham, but not because of her credentials — because she wants a GOP Senate majority to support the Trump administration’s efforts in South America.
她告诉MS NOW，她没有看到上个月的辩论表现，但当被告知格雷厄姆的失误时，她把它一笑置之。“我认为她是在诚实，”她说。
She told MS NOW she didn’t see last month’s debate performance, but brushed off Graham’s gaffe when told about it. “I think she was being honest,” she said.
格雷厄姆目前面临的最大挑战或许是，在一次毁灭性的死亡和痛苦的初选之后，她能否团结南卡罗来纳州的共和党人。
Graham’s biggest challenge, perhaps, at this juncture may be whether she can unite South Carolina Republicans after a devastating death and painful primary.
诺曼——2023年因支持妮基·黑利参加总统竞选而引发特朗普不满的人——告诉MS NOW，特朗普在初选期间对格雷厄姆的背书和大力竞选正“适得其反”。虽然他在初选失利后转而支持格雷厄姆，但诺曼表示他没有计划与她一起竞选。而且，看来诺曼正在进行一场小规模的写入运动，尽管这位国会议员表示他并未参与其中。读取形势，诺曼表示格雷厄姆面临艰难的斗争。
Norman — who drew Trump’s ire in 2023 after he endorsed Nikki Haley for president — told MS NOW Trump’s endorsement and heavy campaigning for Graham during the primary is “backfiring on him.”While he threw his support behind Graham following his primary loss, Norman said he has no plans to campaign with her. And what appears to be a small write-in campaign for Norman is underway, though the congressman said he isn’t involved. Reading the tea leaves, Norman said Graham faces an uphill battle.
“我认为她会把特朗普再拉回来，我也认为她会让所有在南卡罗来纳州站在她这边的人为她竞选，”他补充道。“我认为她正经历艰难时刻。”
“I assume she’ll call Trump back in, and I assume she’ll get all the people in South Carolina who sided with her to campaign with her,” he added. “I think she’s having a tough time.”