选民明天将前往投票站，让我们停下来，看看共和党向选民传递的最佳信息。其中最令人震惊的是：“破产增加，自杀增加，但尽管如此，[我们希望特朗普总统]……能带我们走向胜利，”堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall，共和党人）上周在接受彭博电视台采访时说。哇。他到底在为哪支队伍效力？公平地说，2026年中期选举中，几位共和党人也向选民做出了类似呼吁。
As voters head to the polls tomorrow, let’s stop and look at the best messages to voters coming from Republicans. Here is the most eye-opening: “Bankruptcies are up, suicides are up but nonetheless [our hope is that President Trump]…can take us to victory here,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) told Bloomberg TV last week. Wow. Which team is he playing for? To be fair to Marshall, several Republicans in the 2026 midterms have made similar appeals to voters.
他们的最佳信息是：任何曾支持特朗普竞选总统的选民都应该闭上眼睛、捏住鼻子，对特朗普保持忠诚，尽管结果糟糕，仍要投票给国会中支持他的人。不幸的是，这一共和党信息面临着高门槛。NPR/PBS马里斯特民调显示，44%的登记选民计划出于反对特朗普的原因投票。他们反对腐败、汽油和杂货的高价格，以及中东另一场“永无止境”的战争？
Their best message is that any voter who supported Trump for president should close their eyes, hold their noses and remain loyal to Trump and vote for his supporters in Congress despite bad outcomes. Unfortunately, that GOP message is facing a high bar. An NPR/PBS Marist poll shows 44 percent of registered voters plan to vote out of opposition to Trump. They oppose corruption, high prices for gas and groceries and another “never-ending” war in the Middle East?
即使有巨额广告资金，共和党候选人也未能找到超越对特朗普盲目忠诚的有力结案陈词。当总统通过加密货币赚取数十亿美元时，共和党候选人能就腐败说什么？当他儿子婚礼接待的账单由一位俄罗斯寡头买单时，又能说什么呢？目前在国会的共和党人明显对这种腐败视而不见。他们也默许了他的经济政策和外交事务处理方式。
Even with a big bankroll for advertising, the GOP candidates have not found a compelling closing argument beyond blind loyalty to Trump. What can a GOP candidate say about corruption when the president is making billions on crypto currencies? What is there to say when the bill for his son’s wedding reception is picked up by a Russian oligarch? Republicans currently in Congress conspicuously closed their eyes to that corruption. They also acquiesced to his economic policies and handling of foreign affairs.
他们认为这是明智的政治。鉴于特朗普对其党的控制，他们担心如果敢于违抗特朗普的政策，就会在共和党初选中输给特朗普背书的对手。但在大选中，每一位共和党国会候选人都背负着一位支持率低的总统的重担。他在腐败、经济、通胀和战争问题上，在选民中处于负面区域。这就是为什么共和党向中期选举选民传递的最佳信息，一直是试图让选民将目光从特朗普身上移开。
They thought it was smart politics. Given Trump’s grip on their party they feared losing a GOP primary to a rival endorsed by Trump if dared to defy Trump’s policies. But in a general election every Republican congressional candidate bears the weight of a president with low approval ratings. He is in negative territory with voters on corruption, on the economy, on inflation, and the war. That’s why the best message to midterm voters from Republicans has been to try to get voters to look away from Trump.
他们更倾向于抨击民主党人是激进分子、极端分子和精英分子，指责他们缺乏基督教信仰、爱国心和家庭价值观。这种共和党的宣传策略因法国发生的骚乱而得到助力。候选人们煽动对美国动荡的恐惧，声称如果民主党赢得国会控制权，动荡就会发生。此外还有文化战争的宣传。在爱荷华州，一位共和党候选人的广告中，旁白指责其民主党对手“就是对孩子们构成彻头彻尾的危险”，因为对方“投票允许成年男性进入女生更衣室”，以照顾跨性别学生运动员。
They prefer to lash Democrats as radicals, extremists, and elitists who lack Christian faith, patriotism and family values. That kind of Republican messaging got a boost from riots in France. The candidates stirred fear of unrest in the U.S. if Democrats win control of Congress. And then there is a culture war message. In Iowa, one Republican’s ad featured a narrator who accused his Democratic opponent of being “just plain dangerous to kids” by “voting to let grown men in girl’s lockers rooms,” to accommodate transgender student athletes. That one backfired when the narrator was found to have a rap sheet that included a 2017 incident where she pled guilty to a count of child endangerment while she was driving intoxicated.
这招适得其反，因为人们发现该旁白有犯罪记录，其中包括2017年的一起事件，她因醉酒驾驶而认罪，被判犯有危害儿童罪。至于对特朗普经济政策负面影响的担忧，他们能做的最好就是反复发表“强烈关切”的声明。这是参议员苏珊·柯林斯（共和党-缅因州）在竞选连任时的宣传口径。在最近的一场辩论中，她吹嘘自己为缅因州人争取到了限制特朗普对加拿大道路用盐征收关税的措施。
As for concern over the negative impact of Trump’s economic policies, the best they can do is issue repeated statements of "strong concern." This is Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-Maine) message in her bid for reelection. In a recent debate, she boasted about securing limits on Trump’s tariffs on Canadian road salt for Mainers.
这让她的民主党对手特洛伊·杰克逊抓住机会有力反击。杰克逊指出食品价格高企，他在社交媒体上说缅因州人“吃不了道路用盐”，赢得了喝彩。共和党在2026年中期选举中的最后手段，是宣传特朗普将为他们出席造势集会。他们希望总统的现身能激发选民热情，提高共和党的投票率。特朗普在这些集会上尝试过几种宣传口径，包括承诺如果共和党保持对众议院和参议院的控制，就向每位选民发放5000美元。
That left her open to a strong comeback from her Democrat opponent, Troy Jackson. Noting the high price of food, Jackson won applause on social media for saying Mainers "can't eat road salt." The last resort for Republicans in the 2026 midterms has been to advertise that Trump will appear at a rally for them. They hope the sight of the president will excite voters and increase GOP turnout. Trump has tried several messages at those rallies including a promise to send $5,000 to each voter if the GOP retains control of the House and Senate.
但这种诉求除了看起来像试图买票、很可能违反联邦贿选法外，从未获得支持。上周，特朗普半开玩笑地邀请支持者去他在棕榈滩的私人俱乐部海湖庄园。“问题是，拿5000美元，你顶多只能买个汉堡，或许再加个小甜点，”他说，“我甚至不确定你能不能买得起这些。”
But that appeal, apart from looking like an attempt to buy votes and being a likely violation of federal bribery laws, never gained traction. Last week, Trump jokingly invited his supporters to his private club in Palm Beach, Mar-a-Lago. “The problem is that for $5,000, the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert,” he said.
“不，别去那儿。如果你在乎价格，那可不是个好地方。” 我确信这个玩笑对堪萨斯州农村地区、正面临农场破产且自杀率上升的马歇尔选民来说，绝非什么安慰。特朗普用金钱换选票的说辞，招来了前总统奥巴马的反击。奥巴马为密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德助选时表示，特朗普把白宫装饰得金碧辉煌，看起来像是“萨达姆·侯赛因开了一家芝士蛋糕工厂”。
“I'm not even sure you could buy that. No, don't go there. That's not a good place if you're price conscious.”I’m sure that joke is of great comfort to Marshall’s constituents in rural Kansas who are facing farm bankruptcy amid rising rates of suicide. Trump’s pitch of dollars for votes led to a return volley from former President Obama. Stumping for Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El Sayed, Obama said Trump's gold-plated decor of the White House looked like "Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory."
MAGA 宣传高手试图将此描绘成一场针对工薪阶层芝士蛋糕工厂顾客的文化战争攻击。奥巴马后来指出，特朗普并未对被比作伊拉克独裁者提出抗议。特朗普的信息传递明显未能在社交媒体上重振共和党声势。“特朗普所代表的某些东西，结果证明并非真实，”此前曾对特朗普评价颇高的顶级播客主乔·罗根说道。“比如他 2024 年的承诺之一是不打仗。可看看，我们正在与伊朗交战。所以那不是真的。”
MAGA spinmeisters tried to cast this as a culture war attack on working-class Cheesecake Factory patrons. Obama later noted that Trump did not protest being likened to an Iraqi dictator. Trump’s messaging notably failed to revive GOP support on social media. “What Trump stood for, some of it turned out to not be real,” said Joe Rogan, a top podcaster who previously spoke favorably of Trump. “Like one of [Trump’s 2024 promises] was the no wars. Well, look, we’re at war with Iran. So that wasn’t real.”
政治预测专家查理·库克近期表示，这场大选看起来不像是一场“蓝色浪潮”，而更像是“红色暗流”导致的结果。换句话说，共和党从未提出出有效信息，任由民主党驶向胜利。胡安·威廉姆斯是福克斯新闻频道资深政治分析师，也是屡获殊荣的民权史学家。他撰有新书《New Prize for These Eyes: The Rise of America’s Second Civil Rights Movement》（暂译《这些眼睛的新奖赏：美国第二次民权运动的兴起》）。
Political prognosticator Charlie Cook recently said this election looks less like a “blue wave” than the result of a “red undertow.”In other words, the Republicans never surfaced an effective message, leaving Democrats sailing toward victory. Juan Williams is senior political analyst for Fox News Channel and a prize-winning civil rights historian. He is the author of the new book “New Prize for These Eyes: The Rise of America’s Second Civil Rights Movement.“