
这听起来像是科幻小说里的情节:如果 AI 能在你做出决定之前,甚至在完全陌生的情境下,预测你将要做什么,会怎样?
Here’s a question straight out of sci-fi: What if AI could predict what you were going to do before you decided to, even in a completely new situation?
以色列初创公司 42AI 称正在开发一种“行为世界模型”,能够做到这一点,且刚刚结束保密模式,获得 6250 万美元种子轮融资。该公司目前在少数金融券商运行其预测系统,声称该模型有助于预测个体交易员在波动行情下的反应。
Israeli startup 42AI says it is developing a “behavioral world model” that can do just that, and it has just come out of stealth with $62.5 million in seed funding. The company is initially running its predictive system at a handful of financial brokerages, where it says the model can help predict how individual traders will respond to volatile conditions.
“行为不是确定性的;它始终是概率性的,”42AI 首席执行官兼联合创始人 Amit Gal-Or 在我请他为公司的宏大主张辩护时对 TechCrunch 表示。他认为,人们拥有潜在的心理倾向,即使环境改变,这些倾向仍会影响其决策,而这正是该初创企业试图测量并转化为模型可理解数据的内容。
“Behavior is not deterministic; it’s constantly probabilistic,” 42AI’s CEO and co-founder Amit Gal-Or told TechCrunch when I asked him to justify his company’s tall claim. He argues that people have underlying psychological tendencies that influence their decisions even when their circumstances change, and that’s what the startup is trying to measure and convert into data that the model can understand.
“下周你可能变成另一个人,但你的倾向始终会在特定领域按某种概率或分布表现出来,”联合创始人兼首席技术官 Ehud Ezra 补充道。公司认为,这正是模型的功能:展示一个人做出特定决定的概率。
“A week from now, you might be a different person, but your tendencies will always play out in certain areas to a probability or distribution,” his co-founder and CTO Ehud Ezra added. And that, the company argues, is what the model does: show the of a person making a certain decision.
42AI 表示,该模型试图弄清人们的内在动机,而非仅根据既往行为外推模式。为此,42AI 考察人们对看似无关事件的反应。例如,对投资者或交易员而言,此类事件可能包括完成 KYC(了解你的客户)流程、开户入职、客服通话、资金转账或股票交易。
42AI says the model tries to figure out people’s internal motivations instead of extrapolating patterns based on their previous actions. To do that, 42AI examines how people react to seemingly unrelated events. For an investor or trader, for example, such events might include completing KYC processes, onboarding, support calls, money transfers, or trading stocks.
“当用户在初始流程中与支持或销售人员交谈时……我们会关注情绪、语音,以及他们进行的大量互动,比如他们打了多少次电话,等等,”首席技术官兼联合创始人 Ehud Ezra 补充道。“所有这些数据点都会输入模型。随后,你会有购买和出售等互动,以及发生的时间,我们在那个阶段会关注市场情况。”“所以我们试图了解他们是如何看待世界的。在世界模型中,每个人就是一个世界,”他补充道。
“When the person is talking to support or sales in the initial process […] we’re looking at the sentiment, we’re looking at the voice, we’re looking at a lot of interactions that they’re doing, how many times do they call, and so forth,” added CTO and co-founder Ehud Ezra. “And all of those data points are going into the model. Later on, you have the interactions: how you buy and sell, and when, and we’re looking at the market at that stage.”“So we’re trying to look at how they’re looking at the world. In a world model, every individual is the world,” he added.
该公司随后将这些观察结果转化为特质的数学表征,并将其输入基于 Transformer 的世界模型,该模型为不同情境下可能的决策给出概率。(该公司使用单独的语言模型来生成对其预测的解释)。
The company then converts those observations into mathematical representations of traits, which are then fed into a transformer-based world model that lays out probabilities for possible decisions under different circumstances. (The company uses a separate language model to generate explanations for its predictions).
Ezra 表示,该模型经过训练,旨在在模拟过程中保留一个人的潜在倾向。因此,如果某人通常规避风险,但模型突然将其视为风险承担者,“目标就偏离了,”他解释了模型训练奖励的结构方式。
Ezra said the model is trained to preserve a person’s underlying tendencies during simulations. So if someone is usually risk-averse, but the model suddenly treats them as a risk-taker, “the target is off,” he said, explaining how the model’s training rewards are structured.
42AI 花费三年时间开发这种方法,将心理学研究与神经科学和遗传学相结合,并征求了心理学和 PTSD 专家以及 2011 年诺贝尔化学奖得主 Dan Shechtman 的建议。
42AI spent three years developing this approach, combining psychological research with neuroscience and genetics, as well as advice from experts in psychology and PTSD, and Dan Shechtman, who was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.
Gal-Or 表示,团队首先通过心理评估和行为场景研究了数千人,随后加入了覆盖 200 多万人的政府和生物库数据集。他表示,其客户数据集此后已扩大,覆盖近 3000 万人。
Gal-Or said the team first studied thousands of people via psych assessments and behavioral scenarios, before adding government and biobank datasets covering more than 2 million people. Its customer datasets have since expanded to cover almost 30 million people, he said.
在实际部署中,该模型会分析客户的现有记录,包括交易和支持通话。加尔-奥尔指出,该系统不需要个人身份信息,并辩称“模型永远不知道这个人是谁”。不过,似乎该公司仍会根据关联的客户活动创建个体行为画像。
In live deployments, the model analyzes customers’ existing records, including transactions and support calls. Gal-Or pointed out the system doesn’t need personally identifiable information, arguing that “the model never knows who the person is.”However, it seems the company still creates individual behavioral profiles from linked customer activity.
在预测市场交易方面,42AI 声称其模型准确率达到 98%,但加尔-奥尔澄清,这更多是衡量交易流是否落在预测范围内,而非每笔交易都预测正确。
In predicting market trades, 42AI claims its model achieves 98% accuracy, but Gal-Or clarified that this is more a measure of whether trading flows fall within a predicted range, not if each trade was predicted correctly.
他还表示,该模型在预测交易方向和交易量方面,F1 值始终能达到 0.8 到 0.85。(F1 值是机器学习中的一项指标,用于衡量分类模型在正确预测、误报和漏报之间取得平衡的能力)。
He also said the model consistently achieves an F1 score of 0.8 to 0.85 for predicting trading direction and volume. (F1 score is a metric in machine learning that measures how well a classification model can balance correct predictions against false alarms and missed events).
而且该模型并非无处不适用,毕竟它仍是“箱子里的机器”。“存在一个自然的上限,因为你确实无法获取一个人所经历的一切,”加尔-奥尔说。埃兹拉解释称,当系统遗漏重要的情境背景时,其准确性也会受损,例如某人根据朋友或同事的建议改变交易选择的情况。
And it’s not like the model can work everywhere, given it’s still a machine in a box. “There’s a natural ceiling because you really don’t have access to everything that a person experiences,” Gal-Or said. Ezra explained that the system’s accuracy also suffers when it misses important situational context, like if someone chooses to change their trading choices based on advice from a friend or a colleague.
加尔-奥尔表示,42AI 正与 10 家大型券商合作,后者利用该模型管理流动性、保证金要求和对冲敞口。他称公司正在接入更多客户,营收已超过“七位数”,但拒绝透露具体数字。
Gal-Or said 42AI is working with 10 large brokerages, who are using it to manage liquidity, margin requirements, and hedging exposure. The company is onboarding more customers, he said, and is generating more than “seven figures” in revenue, though he wouldn’t specify a number.
客户向这家初创公司支付固定费用,或按平台帮助其获得的价值比例付费。他声称,一家券商通过动态对冲产生了约 3000 万美元的额外价值。
Customers pay the startup a flat fee, or a percentage of the value the platform helps them gain. He claimed one brokerage generated approximately $30 million in additional value through dynamic hedging.
这 6250 万美元的种子资金来自创始人和 Infinity Group,历时三年筹集,并非完全来自外部投资人,Gal-Or 表示。Infinity Group 由他的父亲 Amir Gal-Or 创立,后者同时也是 42AI 的董事长兼联合创始人。42AI 现在计划筹集更多资金。
The $62.5 million seed funding came from the founders and Infinity Group over three years, and wasn’t entirely raised from external investors, Gal-Or said. Infinity was founded by his father, Amir Gal-Or, who is also 42AI’s chairman and a co-founder. 42AI now plans to raise more money.
除了金融领域,42AI 目前正在探索将其模型应用于游戏、反欺诈和网络安全,并希望未来能用它帮助机器人和 AI 智能体理解人类。但这可能还需要一段时间:Ezra 承认,该模型需要针对每个新领域的规则和语境进行训练。
Beyond finance, 42AI is now exploring applications for its model in gaming, fraud prevention and cybersecurity, and one day wants to use it to help robots and AI agents understand people. But that may be a ways off yet: Ezra acknowledged that the model needs to be trained on rules and context for each new domain.
与所有 AI 工具一样,42AI 的技术也存在潜在的令人担忧的一面:如果券商能预判客户可能的行为,什么能阻止有人利用这些知识谋取私利?当我提出这个问题时,Ezra 承认这是“一个合理的担忧”,创始人指出了法规、监控和内部道德委员会,但他们并未解释是什么(如果有的话)能阻止他们的客户利用这项技术,在被画像的那些人身上获取优势。
And like with all AI tools, there’s a potentially troubling side to 42AI’s technology: if a brokerage can anticipate what its customers may do, what’s to stop someone from using that knowledge to their own benefit? Ezra admitted that this was “a valid concern” when I raised it, and the founders pointed to regulations, monitoring and an internal ethics committee, though they didn’t explain what, if anything, would stop their customers from using the technology to gain an advantage over the very people it’s profiling.
然而,Gal-Or 对该技术有助于应对此类风险充满信心。“我们非常自豪,实际上我们是解决方案的一部分;我们就是解决这一问题的方案,”他说。
Gal-Or, however, was confident that the technology could help address such risks. “We are very proud that actually we are part of the solution; we are the solution to this problem,” he said.