Anthropic发布了一份监管申报文件，披露了近9000亿美元的计算和基础设施承诺，而额外的预估付款可能使总额突破1万亿美元。这份周一的文件显示，Anthropic预计到2027年9月将支付近700亿美元的合同义务，到2030年底预计将产生的承诺总额约为4475亿美元。当然，这一切的前提是其收入继续保持上升轨迹，而招股说明书警告称，这远非板上钉钉。
Anthropic has published a regulatory filing revealing nearly $900 billion in compute and infrastructure commitments, with additional estimated payments potentially pushing the total beyond $1 trillion. The Monday filing reports that Anthropic expects to pay nearly $70 billion in contractual obligations by September 2027, with a total of roughly $447.5 billion in commitments expected to be incurred by the end of 2030. That's assuming of course its revenues continue their upward trajectory, which the prospectus warns is far from guaranteed.
“在截至2026年9月30日的九个月中，我们的收入为332亿美元，同比增长率为1206%，”招股说明书写道。“我们预计我们的收入不会继续以可比的速度增长，我们也无法向您保证它将继续增长。”“我们能否履行这些为确保计算能力而产生的巨额且不断增长的财务义务，取决于我们能否实现显著的收入增长，”文件写道。也就是说，如果Anthropic的收入增长不能快于其计算承诺，它最终可能陷入恶性螺旋。
"In the nine months ended September 30, 2026, our revenue was $33.2 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 1,206%," the prospectus reads. "We do not expect our revenue will continue to grow at comparable rates, and we cannot assure you that it will continue to grow at all." "Our ability to meet the substantial and growing financial obligations of these requirements to secure compute depends on our ability to generate significant revenue growth," the filing reads. Which is to say, if Anthropic's revenues don't grow faster than its compute commitments, it could end up falling into a nasty spiral.
尽管Anthropic有包括债务和股权融资在内的多种选择，但长期依赖这些方式可能会稀释现有股东的权益，或迫使公司以不利条件借款。每份IPO文件读起来都有点像这样，因为没有任何公司能够保证永远成功和增长。因此，这份文件中的许多措辞，尽管听起来可能很糟糕，其实只是Anthropic在自我保护。然而，尽管该公司同比仍在稳步增长，最新文件显示收入增长已经在放缓。
And while Anthropic has several options, including debt and equity financing, relying on these long term could dilute existing shareholders or force the company to borrow on unfavorable terms. Every IPO filing reads a bit like this because no company can guarantee eternal success and growth. A lot of this filing's language, as damning as it might sound, is therefore just Anthropic covering its butt. However, even though the company is still growing steadily year-over-year, the latest filing shows revenue growth is already slowing.
今年第一季度到第二季度之间，收入增长了近2.5倍。然而在第三季度，Anthropic报告的收入接近170亿美元，仅比第二季度增长46%。
Between Q1 and Q2 of this year, revenues grew nearly 2.5x. Yet in Q3, Anthropic's reported revenues of nearly $17 billion represented an increase of just 46 percent from Q2.
在同一时期，Anthropic 的算力和基础设施成本增长了 77%，并保留了将其锁定在更多支出中的交易。上周，我们报道称 Anthropic 的采购承诺在未来十年左右超过 8000 亿美元。Anthropic 现在表示，其承诺更接近 8950 亿美元。其中约 3200 亿美元与现有合同义务有关。另外 4510 亿美元涵盖 Anthropic 已签署但尚未开始的租赁，公司预计这些租赁将在 2026 年至 2028 年之间开始，尽管其中一些仍受终止权或其他条件限制。
In the same period, Anthropic's compute and infrastructure costs grew 77 percent and it keptg deals that commit it to more expenditure. Last week, we reported that Anthropic's purchase commitments exceeded $800 billion over the next decade or so. Anthropic now says its commitments are closer to $895 billion. Roughly $320 billion of those commitments relate to existing contractual obligations. Another $451 billion covers leases Anthropic has signed, but that have yet to commence, with the company expecting them to begin between 2026 and 2028, although some remain subject to termination rights or other conditions.
然而总体而言，Anthropic 的算力支出有望在未来几年大幅增加。这甚至还不包括 Anthropic 为确保足够算力而开出的“空头支票”，其价值为 1500 亿至 1750 亿美元，使 Anthropic 的算力总账单达到 1 万亿美元以上。Anthropic 无法摆脱其中一些支出，因为其与微软、谷歌、亚马逊和博通的交易（目前总计 4370 亿美元）不可取消。
Overall, however, Anthropic's compute spend is on track to increase substantially over the next few years. And that's not even counting the blank checks Anthropic has written to secure adequate compute, which it values at $150-$175 billion, putting Anthropic's total compute tab at somewhere north of $1 trillion. Anthropic can't walk away from some of this spending because its deals with Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Broadcom, which now total $437 billion, are non-cancellable.
有些交易要求无论 Anthropic 是否启用哪怕一个 GPU 都必须付款。这家 AI 初创公司估计，在其 8950 亿美元的合同中，只有约 2130 亿美元允许其避免付款。修订后的 S-1 文件还提供了关于公司客户群的见解，包括对云服务提供商进行分发的高度依赖。亚马逊、谷歌和微软等是该模型开发商最大的算力提供商之一，但根据文件，云市场在截至 9 月 30 日的九个月中占其收入的约 44%。
Some require payment regardless of whether Anthropic lights up a single GPU. The AI upstart estimates that of its $895 billion in contracts, only about $213 billion worth allow it to avoid payments. The revised S1 filing also offered insights into the company's customer base, including a major reliance on cloud service providers for distribution. The likes of Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are some of the model dev's biggest compute providers, but according to the filing, cloud marketplaces accounted for roughly 44 percent of its revenue in the nine months ended September 30.
Anthropic 坚称，其没有任何单一客户贡献超过 10% 的收入。然而，依赖超大规模云服务商进行分发仍然是一种风险，因为它们都在积极开发竞争产品，或提供对 Anthropic 竞争对手模型的访问。
Anthropic insists that none of its customers account for more than 10 percent of revenue. Yet reliance on hyperscalers for distribution remains a risk because they are all either actively developing competing products or provide access to models from Anthropic's rivals.
尽管其招股说明书列举了诸多风险，Anthropic 仍认为，只要能获得足够的算力，它就能成为一家可持续发展的企业。招股说明书宣称，借此 AI 将“以超越工业化、电力、半导体和互联网影响的方式”重塑经济。赌注如此之大，人类怎能不像醉汉一样挥金如土？®
Despite all the risks in its prospectus, Anthropic believes it can become a sustainable business if it can access enough compute capacity. And by doing so, the prospectus claims AI will reshape the economy "in ways greater than the impact of industrialization, electricity, semiconductors, and the internet." With so much at stake, how can humanity afford not to spend like a drunken sailor? ®