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Anthropic重磅IPO招股书发布后仍待解答的重大问题The big questions remaining after Anthropic’s blockbuster IPO prospectus

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Anthropic 本周早些时候提交的超过 300 页的 S-1 注册声明包含了大量信息。这是迄今为止关于一家纯 AI 实验室如何赚钱的最全面的公开披露。

Anthropic's over 300 page S-1 filing earlier this week contained of information. It was the most comprehensive public statement to date about how a pure-play AI lab makes its money.

招股说明书于周一生效后,我和我的美国同事仔细研读了每一个细节,涵盖了从营收、风险到竞争对手和算力成本的方方面面。

After the prospectus went live on Monday, my U.S.-based colleagues and I went through it with a fine-tooth comb detailing everything from revenue and risks to competitors and computing costs.

文件还披露,CEO Dario Amodei 及其其他六位联合创始人各自持有超过 2 亿股股份,如果 Anthropic 达到预期的超过 1 万亿美元估值,这些股份价值可能达到数十亿美元。但尽管干货满满,仍有几个大问题悬而未决。

The filing also revealed that CEO Dario Amodei and his six co-founders each own over 200 million shares, which could be worth billions if Anthropic hits the over $1 trillion valuation it's expected to. But despite all the nuggets, a few big questions remain.

营收方面,Anthropic 报告 2026 年上半年营业成本为 23.8 亿美元,同期实现营收 162.9 亿美元,暗示毛利率为 85%。

Revenue Anthropic reported its cost of revenue as $2.38 billion in the first half of 2026, booking $16.29 billion in revenue during the same period and implying a gross margin of 85%.

Leverage Shares 高级研究分析师 Violeta Todorova 告诉 CNBC,上半年营收与 2025 年上半年的 11.6 亿美元相比大幅增长,并质疑其能否“保持增长势头以符合预期”。她说:“随着算力需求增加,产生每一美元增量营收的成本是多少,目前尚不清楚。”

Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares, told CNBC that the first-half revenue compared with just $1.16 billion in the first half of 2025, and asked whether it could grow to "keep pace with expectations." "It is unclear how much it costs to generate each additional dollar of revenue as computing demand increases," she said.

但 Anthropic 的营收高速增长在第三季度放缓。第二季度环比第一季度增长约 144%,第三季度环比增长则降至约 47%。

But Anthropic's meteoric revenue growth slowed in the third quarter. It grew approximately 144% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, followed by roughly 47% in the third quarter.

Morningstar 首席股票策略师 Michael Field 表示:“招股说明书没有透露管理层对这种环比增长放缓的预期。”

"What the prospectus didn't tell us is management's expectations around the sequential slowdown in the growth rate," said Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar.

“绝大部分营收成本”与算力和基础设施成本相关,招股说明书指出。文件还称,运营利润率和调整后运营利润率预计将“随时间波动,特别是在我们获得大量额外算力并产生相关费用的时期。”

Compute "Substantially all of cost of revenue" is associated with compute and infrastructure costs, the filing states. It also says that operating margin and adjusted operating margin are expected to "fluctuate over time, particularly in periods when substantial incremental compute is delivered to us and we incur the associated expenses."

“投资者能看到算力在营收中所占比例下降,但看不出前期承诺中有多少用于训练下一代模型,有多少用于服务客户,”Futurum Group AI 首席分析师 Nick Patience 对 CNBC 表示。“这种分配决定了未来的利润率。”他补充道,问题还在于算力成本能否持续以快于承诺增长的速度下降,以及 Anthropic 能否获得足够的产能来服务客户。

"Investors can see compute falling as a share of revenue, but not how much of the forward commitment is earmarked for training the next generation of models versus serving customers," Nick Patience, AI lead at the Futurum Group, told CNBC. "That split dictates future margins." Questions also remain around whether compute costs can keep falling faster than commitments grow and if Anthropic can secure enough capacity to serve customers, he added.

关于 AI 和超大规模云服务商领域的需求超过供应,招股说明书称,此前曾向“云服务提供商寻求的算力数量超出这些合作伙伴愿意提供的数量。”随后文件指出:“我们历史上一直处于算力受限的环境中,算力需求超过了我们可获得的供应。”

Regarding demand across the AI and hyperscaler sector outstripping supply, the prospectus says that it had previously sought "quantities of compute from [cloud service providers] in excess of what those partners were willing to provide." Later it says: "We have historically operated in a compute-constrained environment in which demand for compute has exceeded the supply available to us."

定价与控制 Anthropic 作为一家公益公司的架构也引发疑问。包括 CEO Dario Amodei 在内的七位联合创始人,通过一股单一的 F 类股份拥有特殊表决权,该股份相当于股东投票事项总表决权的 50.1%。

Pricing and control Anthropic's structure as a public benefit corporation raises questions too. Seven co-founders, including CEO Dario Amodei, have special voting power through a single Class F share equal to 50.1% of total voting power over matters brought to a shareholder vote.

招股说明书中,Anthropic 将其资本和公司治理结构描述为“在上市公司中没有直接先例”。

Anthropic describes its capital and corporate governance structure as having "no direct public company precedent," in the filing.

“我们现在还知道,管理层计划发行一系列不同类别的股份,”Morningstar 的 Field 说。“但我们不知道的是,投资者是否会接受这种隐含的缺乏控制权,还是说这会影响股价。这是要等到股票开始交易后才会知道的事。”

"We also know now that management plans a series of different class share issues," said Morningstar's Field. "But what we don't know is whether investors will be fine with the lack of control implied, or will this impact the share price.

最后是那个万亿美元的问题:Anthropic 瞄准的 IPO 估值。这家 AI 实验室目前对此守口如瓶。它只是说,估值将“由我们、出售股东和承销代表之间的谈判决定”。考虑到分析师的估值区间在 1 万亿美元到 2 万亿美元之间,这将是一场巨大的市场事件。如果定在区间高端,可能会给近几周失去锐气的 AI 板块带回一些声势。如果定在低端,情况可能会变得很难看。

Something we won't know until the shares start trading." And finally the trillion-dollar question: the IPO valuation that Anthropic targets. The AI lab is keeping schtum about that, for now. It says simply it will be "determined by negotiations among us, the selling stockholders, and the representatives." Given analyst estimates range between $1 trillion and $2 trillion, it will be a huge market event. If it's at the higher end of the range, it could bring back some of the swagger the AI sector has lost in recent weeks.

新闻速递 Apple 周三宣布推出其首款配备触控屏的笔记本电脑,命名为搭载 ProLED XDR 显示屏的 MacBook Pro。

If on the lower end, things could get ugly.

SK Hynix 股价上涨,此前该公司公布的季度利润创纪录,大幅超出预期,并宣布派发股息和回购股份总额超过 250 亿美元。

News edit Apple on Wednesday announced its first laptop with a touchscreen, which it's calling MacBook Pro with ProLED XDR Display.

Nvidia Advanced Micro Devices 表示,将在 Meta 宣布计划筹集 950 亿美元以支持其 AI 基础设施投资后,共同向 Meta 投资总计 40 亿美元。

SK Hynix's shares rose after the company reported record quarterly profit that sharply beat estimates, and announced over $25 billion in dividends and buybacks.

Microsoft 周一表示,正向大范围员工提供买断方案,因为它正努力在昂贵的 AI 基础设施建设与资本效率之间取得平衡。

Nvidia Advanced Micro Devices said they will invest a total of $4 billion in Meta after the social media giant announced plans to raise $95 billion to support its investments in AI infrastructure.

Elon Musk 周日表示,SpaceX 已完成 400 亿美元的债务融资,用于采购为 AI 系统提供动力的图形处理单元(GPU)。

Microsoft said Monday that it's offering buyouts wide swath of employees as it strives to balance a costly AI infrastructure build-out with capital efficiency.

还有一件事 Anthropic 的 S-1 文件是公司情报的宝库,但有一个数字真正引起了我的注意。这家 AI 实验室持有的现金比美国几乎所有公司都多。正如我的同事 Leslie Picker 所写,此前从未有公司在拥有如此巨额现金的情况下上市。

SpaceX has closed $40 billion in debt financing to buy graphics processing units, or GPUs, used to power AI systems, Elon Musk said on Sunday. One more thing Anthropic's S-1 was a trove of company intel, but one figure really caught my eye. The AI lab has more cash than almost every company in the U.S. And, as my colleague Leslie Picker writes, never before has a company gone public with anywhere near that much.

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