能源公司需要将中断视为其业务的永久特征进行规划，建立备用产能、实现供应路线多元化，并将投资重心转向安全保障，行业高管们在中东地区最大的行业会议上表示。
Energy companies need to plan for disruption to be a permanent feature of their businesses, building backup capacity, diversifying supply routes and refocusing investment on security, top executives said at the industry’s largest conference in the Middle East.
“中断不再是黑天鹅事件，”为主要能源生产商提供服务的Saipem SpA首席执行官Alessandro Puliti表示，“这是我们需要纳入规划的因素。”在阿布扎比举行的Adipec会议上，高管们描述了因美伊战争而面临的挑战规模——从船只滞留港外到寻找关键设备的替代供应商。Puliti表示，此前极少会摆上CEO办公桌的物流问题，如今已成为最大担忧。
“Disruption is no more the black swan,” said Alessandro Puliti, chief executive officer of Saipem SpA, which provides services to major energy producers. “It’s something that we need to build into our planning.”At the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, executives described the scale of the challenges they have faced as a result of the US-Iran war — ranging from vessels stranded outside ports to searches for alternative suppliers of key equipment. Logistics problems of the kind that previously would have rarely reached a CEO’s desk have now become the biggest concern, Puliti said.
高管们表示，提升供应安全的需求正成为推动能源基础设施支出增长的更大驱动力。
The need to boost security of supply is becoming a bigger driver of energy infrastructure spending, executives said.
Baker Hughes Co.首席执行官Lorenzo Simonelli认为，应对当前局势需要更广泛地扩展能源体系，包括增加库存以缓冲未来冲击。
For Baker Hughes Co. CEO Lorenzo Simonelli, the response to the current situation requires a broader expansion of the energy system, including additional inventories to cushion future shocks.
他预计，进入2027年和2028年将面临进一步挑战，包括人工智能带来的能源需求上升，这将需要一个更大、更具韧性的体系，利用所有能源来源并更多地使用区域性资源。
He expects further challenges going into 2027 and 2028, including rising energy demand from artificial intelligence, that will require a larger and more resilient system that draws on all energy sources and makes greater use of regional resources, he said.
“我们不仅需要‘准时制’，更需要‘以防万一’，”Simonelli表示。
“We are going to need not just in time, but just in case,” Simonelli said.
公司和政府必须确保在眼前的中断过去后，不会失去对防范工作的承诺。“不要遗忘，要善用危机，”Simonelli说。
Companies and governments must make sure they don’t lose their commitment to preparedness once the immediate disruption passes. “Let’s not forget, and let’s use the crisis,” Simonelli said.
他表示，Baker Hughes正持续测试供应链脆弱性并寻找替代供应商，以减少对瓶颈环节的依赖。公司还向区域团队下放了更多权力，并奖励在中断期间做出决策的员工。“有时候，你能做的最糟糕的事情就是不做决定，”他说。
Baker Hughes is continually testing supply-chain vulnerabilities and identifying alternative suppliers to reduce dependence on choke points, he said. It has also delegated more authority to regional teams and rewarded employees for making decisions during the disruption. “Sometimes the worst thing you can do is not make a decision,” he said.
阿布扎比国家石油公司（Adnoc）天然气业务首席执行官法特玛·阿尔·努艾米（Fatema Al Nuaimi）表示，单纯的方案规划无法应对每一次危机，公司还需要愿意进行投资。
Scenario planning alone cannot prepare for every crisis, companies also need to be willing to invest, said Fatema Al Nuaimi, CEO of Adnoc’s natural gas division.
“未来属于那些不仅能预测各种可能情况的人，”阿尔·努艾米说。“它属于那些在自身系统中建立足够灵活性，从而能够化解所面临的任何状况的人。”
“The future is for those who are not just predicting every possible scenario,” Al Nuaimi said. “It’s for those who build within their system enough flexibility that enables them to mitigate whatever situations they are faced with.”