南非为美国贸易优惠终止导致的部分失业做准备 记者 Nellie Peyton 约翰内斯堡，11月3日电 —— 在华盛顿决定终止南非享有的对美免税市场准入后，南非出口商正在权衡潜在的失业风险和利润空间被压缩的问题，尽管经济学家和分析师表示，更广泛的经济冲击可能有限。
South Africa braces for some job losses as US trade benefits end By Nellie Peyton JOHANNESBURG, Nov 3 - South African exporters are weighing potential job losses and squeezed margins after Washington moved to end the country's duty-free access to the US market, though economists and analysts said the broader economic fallout was likely to be limited.
华盛顿周一宣布，将从2027年1月起暂停南非和卢旺达享受《非洲增长与机会法案》（AGOA）待遇，该法案是美国面向撒哈拉以南非洲国家的旗舰免税贸易计划。
Washington announced on Monday that it would suspend South Africa and Rwanda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), its flagship duty-free trade programme for sub-Saharan African countries, from January 2027.
声明称，这两国因从事危害美国利益的做法，被宣布不再符合资格。
It said both countries had been declared ineligible due to practices that threaten US interests.
南非一直是该计划的最大受益国，利用它向美国出口汽车零部件、水果和葡萄酒长达二十年。
South Africa had been the largest beneficiary of the programme, using it to export car parts, fruit and wine to the US for two decades.
“整片果园都是专门为美国市场种植的，”南部非洲柑橘种植者协会主席 Gerrit van der Merwe 说，并指出由于不同的卫生要求和消费者偏好，水果无法转销至其他市场。
"Entire orchards have been planted specifically for the US market," said Gerrit van der Merwe, chairman of the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa, adding that fruit cannot be diverted to other markets due to different health requirements and consumer preferences.
“目前还为时过早说会有多少人，但不幸的是，当这件事发生时，一些人将失去工作，”他说。
"It is too early to say how many, but some people will unfortunately lose their jobs when this happens," he said.
担忧失业 鉴于南非拥有全球最高失业率之一，该国最大工会组织——南非工会联合会（COSATU）表示，南非将感受到任何失业带来的冲击。
FEAR OF JOB LOSSES With one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, South Africa will feel any losses, said the country's largest trade union, COSATU.
“我们无法承受放弃任何一名工人、一家企业、一个行业或一个社区，”该工会表示，并指责白人利益集团散布谎言导致南非被排除在外。
"We cannot afford to abandon a single worker, business, industry or community," it said, blaming white interest groups for spreading lies that led to South Africa's exclusion.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普针对南非，主要是因为他所谓的南非迫害白人，而比勒陀利亚方面称这是边缘群体散布的虚假叙事。
President Donald Trump has targeted the country largely due to what he says is its persecution of white people, which Pretoria says is a false narrative spread by fringe groups.
“那些鼓吹白人遭迫害神话的人，早就该意识到他们无休止的游说和在美国的闹剧，给双边关系造成了多么实实在在的损害，”南非工会联合会表示。
"It is long overdue that ... proponents of the white persecution myths, appreciate the very real damage that their endless lobbying of and antics in the US have done to bilateral relations," COSATU said.
农业经济学家万迪勒·西洛博表示，将南非移出《非洲增长与机会法案》（AGOA）的讨论已持续十多年，因为南非属于中上等收入国家，理应与美国建立更具互惠性的贸易协定。
But agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo said there had been talk of removing South Africa from AGOA for more than a decade because it is an upper-middle-income country and should have a more reciprocal trade agreement with the US.
他说：“被排除在外或从AGOA‘毕业’并不一定意味着南非失去对美市场准入。这仅意味着……将面临额外关税。”
"Being excluded or graduating out of AGOA does not necessarily mean that South Africa loses market access to the US. All this means is that ... there will be an additional tariffs," he said.
他表示，对大多数产品而言，额外关税将在3.4%左右。南非对美出口产品中，近90%已不在AGOA涵盖范围内。
For most products it will be an additional tariff of around 3.4%, he said. Almost 90% of South Africa's exports to the US already fall outside of AGOA.
商业游说团体“南非商业团结”表示，失业人数可能在数千人范围内。
Business lobby group Business Unity South Africa said the number of job losses was likely to be in the range of a few thousand.
政府将提供支持 根据卢旺达国家统计局数据，美国是卢旺达2024年第十大贸易伙伴，双边贸易规模远小于南非。卢旺达政府官员未就暂停资格一事回应置评请求。
GOVERNMENT TO PROVIDE SUPPORT Rwanda's trade with the US is much smaller than South Africa's. The US was its 10th biggest trading partner in 2024, according to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. Rwandan government officials did not respond to requests for comment about the suspension.
据汽车行业协会naamsa统计，2025年美国、墨西哥和加拿大市场占南非汽车出口约8%，其中美国占比最大。但南非对美汽车出口去年已遭遇新关税，实际上抵消了AGOA优惠。
The US, Mexico and Canada market accounted for about 8% of South Africa's automotive exports in 2025, with the US taking the largest part, according to industry body naamsa. But automotive exports to the US were already hit with new tariffs last year, effectively cancelling out AGOA benefits.
南非贸易部发言人表示：“这远非灾难。数据说明一切。” 该部称正与受影响行业合作评估冲击并提供支持，同时加快推进南非出口市场多元化。
"This is far from a disaster. The numbers speak for themselves," said South Africa's trade ministry spokesperson on The ministry said it was working with affected industries to assess the impacts and provide support, as well as accelerating the diversification of South Africa's export markets.