字号·· | 护眼
time

为什么几乎所有企业AI转型都以失败告终Why Almost Every Corporate AI Transformation Fails

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

—Just_Super—盖蒂图片社—Just_Super—Getty Images

如果你必须在下一次财报电话会上用一句话描述公司 AI 项目的成果——那种股东会关心的句子——你会怎么说?

If you had to describe the result of your company’s AI program on your next earnings call—one sentence, of the kind a shareholder would care about—what would that sentence be?

我遇到的大多数首席执行官都说不出来。他们能列举活动:跑了多少试点、买了多少许可证、培训了多少员工、宣布了多少合作伙伴关系。这些都不是成果。一项又一项调查发现,大多数企业 AI 项目带来的可衡量回报令人失望。

Most chief executives I meet cannot name it. They can produce activity: pilots run, licenses purchased, employees trained, a partnership announced. None of that is a result. Survey after survey finds that most corporate AI programs deliver disappointing measurable returns.

依我之见,这不是模型、数据或人才的问题。问题在于公司把 AI 指向了哪里。当今的系统能够跨越整个企业进行推理,我们却让它们去处理工单、总结会议。这无异于聘请一位业务运营天才,却让他干助理的活。AI 能撬动最大资金流动的地方不是呼叫中心,而是董事长办公室。

In my view, this is not because of the models, the data, or the talent. It is because of where companies are pointing the AI itself. Today’s systems can reason across an entire business, and we have assigned them to handling tickets and summarizing meetings. This is like hiring a business operations genius and putting him to work as an assistant. The place where AI can move the most money is not the call center. It is the corner office.

公平地说,CEO 往往面临不利的局面。公司是一个信息系统,信息质量在每一层传递中都会退化。向上汇报时,不舒服的发现和预警信号被丢弃;最终送达的往往是一份干净但不完整的摘要。向下传达时,管理指令常被稀释、重新解读、挪作他用,或被悄悄“口袋否决”——会上点头应承,会后置之不理。结果?一家一万员工的公司,所知反而不如一家十员工的公司。

In fairness to CEOs, the cards are often stacked against them. A company is an information system, and the quality of information degrades at every level it passes through. Going up the chain, uncomfortable findings and early warning signs get discarded; what often arrives is a clean, but incomplete, summary. Going downwards, management directives are often diluted, re-interpreted, re-purposed, or quietly “pocket-vetoed”—nodded through in the meeting and left to die. The result? A company of 10,000 ends up knowing less than a company of 10.

一位优秀的幕僚长可以帮助弥补这些挑战。但没有任何人能读完公司产出的每一份文件、参加每一次会议、听完每一个客户电话。

A good chief of staff can help compensate for these challenges. But none can read every document the company produces, sit in every meeting, and hear every customer call.

现在,AI 能够以远超人类能力和任何商业智能系统的深度与速度,揭示并加速组织内部的“激进透明化”。每家公司都保存着两套记录。一套是官方的:季度报告、项目进展、绩效评估,层层润色,直到干净、连贯。另一套是实际发生的事:会议记录、聊天线程、编辑痕迹、销售笔记、代码提交记录。管理者一直以来只能依据第一套记录工作,因为第二套记录太过繁杂分散,无法尽读。

Now, AI can expose and accelerate radical visibility in organizations at a depth and speed that far surpass any human capacity and any business intelligence system. Every company keeps two sets of records. One is official: quarterly reports, project updates, performance reviews, polished at each level until it is clean and coherent. The other is what actually happened: meeting transcripts, chat threads, edit trails, sales notes, code check-ins. Managers have always worked from the first, because the second was too numerous and scattered to read.

现在不一样了。每家公司每天都在记录下最关键的问题、最激烈的辩论、以及关于自身的真相。几乎没有任何一家公司去读这些记录。一套 CEO 级的智能体系统可以唤醒这些“休眠数据”。因此,在我的公司,我要求团队为我构建管理智能体:参加会议、追踪承诺、阅读我被告知内容之下的数据。使用得越多,我们添加的功能就越多。大家称之为“李开复的老板 AI”,这个名字就叫开了。我们最终将其转化为了一款产品。

No longer. Every company writes down the most critical issues, the hottest debates, and the truth about itself every day. Almost none of them read it. A CEO-level agentic system can wake up that “dormant data.”So at my company I asked my team to build management agents for me: to sit in meetings, track commitments, and read the data underneath what I was being told. The more I used them, the more we added. People called it “Kai-Fu’s Boss AI,” and the name stuck. We eventually turned it into a product.

我的老板 AI 在最初几周发现了什么?一个据报每周都在正轨的优先项目,实际上已连续五周没有代码提交。一个被标记为极大概率续约的客户,客户经理却已两个月未曾致电。一份草拟合同,通过将相关销售笔记、签署条款和产品需求文档放在一起阅读,显示其中承诺了从未写入文件的免费定制,根本无法盈利。

What did my boss AI find in its first weeks? A priority project reported on track every week, with no code committed in five. A customer marked highly likely to renew, while the account manager had not called in two months. A draft contract nobody could have made profitable, as reading relevant sales notes, the signed terms, and product requirement documents together showed free customization promised in a room but never written down.

这些并非琐碎的行政事务。它们是及早发现的交付滑坡、挽回的续约、在必须兑现前堵住的利润漏洞。这正是每个 AI 试点项目都错失的与底线挂钩的关键:不是一个生产力百分比,而是一个因 AI 及时捕捉而发生变化的具体数字。

Those are not minor administrative matters. They are a delivery slip caught early, a renewal saved, a margin leak stopped before it had to be honored. That is the connection to the bottom line every AI pilot has missed: not a productivity percentage, but a number that moved because AI caught it in time.

AI 的第二大贡献,是浮现那些本可能隐匿在雷达之下的好消息。其中首要的,是人才发掘与明星员工的识别。

AI’s second contribution is to surface hidden good news that might have been under the radar. Chief among these is talent and identifying star performers.

去年,我以不同的方式组织了我们的绩效评估:没有简历,没有 KPI 汇报材料,也没有部门负责人自荐。我们首先就“工程卓越”在机器如今能编写大部分代码的情况下意味着什么达成一致,随后依据这一标准对一年的代码库历史进行评分。几位得分最高的人,是我从会议中根本挑不出来的。一位副总裁在一个月内借助 AI 写了近 30 万行代码,而 20 年前他是我认识的最多产程序员,当时的个人上限是 3 万行。

Last year I ran our performance review differently: no resumes, no KPI decks, no department heads recommending their own. We agreed first on what “engineering excellence” means when a machine can now write most of the code, then scored a year of repository history against it. Several of the strongest names were people I could not have picked out of a meeting. One vice president wrote close to 300,000 lines with AI in a month, against his own ceiling of 30,000 20 years ago, when he was the most prolific coder I knew.

他并非打字变快了;他是在指挥 AI。反之亦然:一旦机器接管了状态收集和信息传递,那些唯一产出就是状态收集和信息传递的员工就淘汰了。

He is not typing faster; he is directing AI. And the reverse: once the machine does the status-collecting and information-passing, the employees whose only output was status-collecting and information-passing are obsolete.

这就是 AI 原生首席执行官的样子:不是仅仅批准 AI 预算的人,而是先把自己的会议、日程和盲区置于机器审视之下的人。我会定期问我的智能体:我在会议上哪里做错了,我的时间是否花在了我宣称的优先事项上,大家有什么不敢告诉我。下属回答这些问题都很客套。机器能告诉我直白的真相。

This is what an AI-native chief executive is: not someone who just signs off on an AI budget, but someone who puts his own meetings, calendar, and blind spots under the machine’s scrutiny first. I regularly ask my agent what I got wrong in a meeting, whether my time went where I said my priorities were, and what people are afraid to tell me. Subordinates answer those questions politely. The machine can tell me the blunt truth.

这就是公司真正实现 AI 转型的方式。首席执行官提出更敏锐的问题,会议室里的每个人往往会跟进。中层管理者常抵制 AI,因为他们担心这会让团队面临风险。事实上,我认为员工抵制 AI 不是因为怀疑它无效,而是因为他们怀疑它有效。

This is how a company can be truly transformed by AI. The chief executive asks sharper questions, and everyone in the room tends to follow. Often, middle managers resist AI because they fear it will put their teams at risk. In fact, I would argue that employees resist AI not because they doubt it works but because they suspect it does.

所以:不再搞表面文章。我们应该用 AI 解决企业最棘手的问题——那些摆在 CEO 桌面上的问题。那样,CEO 在下一次财报电话会上自豪宣称的话将包含三个部分:一个发生变化的业务指标、推动该指标变化的人、以及完成工作的算力。

So: no more cosmetics. We should use AI to address businesses’ hardest problems in the building: the ones on the CEO’s desk. Then, the words the CEO proudly proclaims on the next earnings call will have three parts: a business number that moved, the person who moved it, and the compute that did the work.

阅读媒体原文 ↗