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巴西发布首份全球化石燃料淘汰“路线图”Brazil publishes first global ‘roadmap’ for phasing out fossil fuels

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巴西建议采取的步骤之一,是让石油和天然气生产商紧急减少开采现场的天然气燃烧和排放。照片:Eremeychuk Leonid/AlamyAmong the steps Brazil suggests is for oil and gas producers to urgently cut the flaring and venting of gas from extraction sites. Photograph: Eremeychuk Leonid/Alamy

巴西政府在全球气候峰会召开前表示,所有国家现在就可以开始摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,无需等待新技术或经济变革。

All countries can start to break their dependence on fossil fuels now without needing to wait for new technologies or economic changes, Brazil’s government has said ahead of a global climate summit.

作为去年联合国气候大会的东道主,巴西周二发布了全球首份逐步淘汰化石燃料的“路线图”,表明各国可以在促进经济增长、帮助民众脱贫的同时,切断与煤炭、石油和天然气的联系。

Brazil, the host of last year’s UN climate conference, set out the world’s first global “roadmap” for phasing out fossil fuels on Tuesday, showing that countries could boost their economies and pull people out of poverty while breaking the link with coal, oil and gas.

但伦敦帝国理工学院气候科学与政策教授Joeri Rogelj表示,尽管巴西的路线图代表了进步,但也存在局限性。“这些路线图很有价值,但因未包含时间表或关键基准,未能明确指出所需变革的步伐,因此显得不足,”他说。

But Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, said that although the Brazilian roadmaps represented a step forward, they were limited. “The roadmaps are valuable but fall short of clearly indicating the pace of change needed by including no timeline or key benchmarks,” he said.

“由于这一缺失,关于实现《巴黎协定》最终目标——将全球变暖限制在远低于2摄氏度,并努力限制在1.5摄氏度以内,以避免危险的气候危害——需要做些什么,仍有许多想象空间。”巴西第30届缔约方大会(Cop30)主席André Corrêa do Lago表示,这些路线图旨在帮助年度联合国缔约方大会从以往专注于谈判应对气候危机的全球协议,转向落实已达成的目标。第31届缔约方大会(Cop31)将于本月在土耳其安塔利亚举行。

“Because of this omission, they still leave much to be imagined about what is needed to achieve the Paris agreement’s ultimate goal: limiting global warming to well below 2C, and preferably to 1.5C, to avoid dangerous climate harm.”André Corrêa do Lago, Brazil’s president of the Cop30 summit, said the roadmaps were intended to help move the annual UN Cops away from their previous focus on negotiating global agreements to tackle the climate crisis, and on to implementing the targets that had already been agreed. Cop31 takes place in Antalya, Turkey, this month.

Corrêa do Lago在接受《卫报》采访时说:“它们是落实文件。谈判者和执行者是不同群体。以往许多缔约方大会存在的问题是,认为谈判者可能也需要协调执行工作——事实并非如此。”他表示,这些路线图应由财政、交通、能源和基础设施部门采纳,研究如何在各自国家落实。

“They are documents of implementation,” Corrêa do Lago told the Guardian in an interview. “There is a different group of people that negotiate and that implement. The problem we’ve had at many Cops is to think that the same people who negotiate might also need to coordinate the implementation – this is not the case.”He said the roadmaps should be taken up by ministries of finance, transportation, energy and infrastructure to work on how they could be implemented in each country.

巴西于去年11月在亚马逊雨林沿海城市贝伦举办了第30届联合国气候变化大会(Cop30),会议期间就最终决议是否应包含化石燃料承诺爆发激烈争论。作为妥协,大会主席国同意制定两份路线图,一份关于“以公正、有序、公平的方式在能源系统中摆脱化石燃料”,另一份关于停止并扭转森林砍伐。

Brazil hosted the Cop30 summit last November in the coastal city of Belém, in the Amazon rainforest, where a bitter dispute broke out over whether the final set of resolutions should include pledges on fossil fuels. As a compromise, the presidency agreed to produce two roadmaps, one on “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just orderly and equitable manner” and the other on halting and reversing deforestation.

这些路线图不同于Cop30结束后,各国政府于4月在哥伦比亚圣玛尔塔举行的会议上制定的同名计划,该会议旨在讨论摆脱化石燃料的过渡。在此次会议上,近60个国家组建了一个独立于缔约方大会(Cops)之外的新“自愿联盟”,以制定各自淘汰化石燃料的国家路线图。此后,包括德国、法国和荷兰在内的多个国家已出台国家计划。

These roadmaps are separate from similarly named plans from governments that met after Cop30 at a conference in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April, to discuss the transition away from fossil fuels. At that conference, nearly 60 countries formed a new “coalition of the willing”, separate to Cops, to set out their own national roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels. Several countries have since produced national plans, including Germany, France and the Netherlands.

苏里南亚马孙雨林中的一处非法采矿营地。照片:Iván Valencia/APAn illegal mining camp in the Amazon rainforest in Suriname. Photograph: Iván Valencia/AP

在圣玛尔塔倡议下,各国政府制定的路线图比巴西的更为具体和具有指导性,因为每份路线图均由负责实施建议政策的国家政府撰写。

The roadmaps produced by governments under the Santa Marta initiative are much more specific and prescriptive than Brazil’s, as each of those is written by the national government responsible for implementing the policies recommended.

巴西的路线图仅列出可能采取的步骤。它们不具备约束力,不包含行动的最后期限或里程碑,并将“诊断”本国对化石燃料的依赖程度以及选择减少依赖的步骤的权利留给各国自行决定。

The Brazilian roadmaps only set out steps that are possible. They are not binding, they contain no deadlines or milestones for actions, and they leave it to countries themselves to “diagnose” their degree of dependence on fossil fuels and select steps to reduce it.

“每个国家[摆脱化石燃料]的节奏都会不同——关键在于聚焦对各国国情的诊断,”科雷亚·杜·拉戈说。“基于这些诊断,它们可以选择自己的政策杠杆并推动转型。”巴西建议的步骤中包括:石油和天然气生产商应紧急削减开采现场的放空燃烧和排放天然气。甲烷是一种温室气体,其效力是二氧化碳的80倍,因此这将产生立竿见影的效果。其他步骤包括各国减少对化石燃料使用或生产的补贴,以及扩大可再生能源发电。

“Every country will have a different rhythm [for moving away from fossil fuels] – it’s very important to concentrate on the diagnoses of countries’ circumstances,” Corrêa do Lago said. “Based on these diagnoses, they can choose their levers [of policy] and implement the transition.”Among the steps Brazil suggests is for oil and gas producers to urgently cut the flaring and venting of gas from extraction sites. Methane is a greenhouse gas 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, so this would have an immediate impact. Other steps are for countries to reduce their subsidies to fossil fuel use or production, and building up renewable generation.

安德烈·科雷亚·多拉戈去年11月在贝伦举行的第30届联合国气候变化大会上。照片:Anderson Coelho/ReutersAndré Corrêa do Lago at Cop30 in Belém last November. Photograph: Anderson Coelho/Reuters

关于毁林的路线图指出,预计需要巨额资金来帮助拥有大面积森林的贫困国家,如亚马逊雨林、刚果雨林和东南亚热带雨林,这些森林正面临火灾和棕榈油开发的威胁。

The roadmap on deforestation notes the large sums that are expected to be needed to help poor countries with heavily forested areas such as the Amazon, the Congo rainforests and south-east Asian tropical forests that are under threat from fires and palm oil exploitation.

根据路线图引用的联合国数据,到2030年,森林保护每年可能需要约3000亿美元,到2050年每年需要5000亿美元。目前可用的资金远远不足,每年仅约850亿美元。

About $300bn is likely to be needed every year for forests by 2030, and $500bn a year by 2050, according to the roadmap, citing UN figures. The current amounts available fall far short at about $85bn a year.

在去年的第30届缔约方大会上,巴西设立了“永久热带森林基金”,旨在保护森林,英国向该基金捐赠了4亿英镑,其他国家合计捐赠了约70亿美元。

At Cop30 last year, Brazil set up the tropical forests forever facility, a fund aiming to preserve forests, to which the UK contributed £400m and other countries combined contributed about $7bn.

毁林路线图还指出了规范有林国与消费国之间贸易的重要性。目前,几乎没有贸易检查机制来阻止无良公司销售来自毁林地区的商品。

The deforestation roadmap also notes the importance of regulating trade between forested countries and consumer countries. At present, there are few trade checks to stop unscrupulous companies from selling goods from deforested areas.

在某些情况下,毁林似乎得到了地方甚至国家政府的默许或鼓励。印度尼西亚正因过去几个月创纪录的大火而被公民社会团体以“严重疏忽”告上法庭,这些大火烧毁了大片森林并摧毁了野生动物栖息地,极有可能被棕榈油种植园取代。

In some cases, deforestation has appeared to be condoned or encouraged by local or even national administrations. Indonesia is being sued by civil society groups for “gross negligence” over the record-breaking fires over the last few months that have cleared swathes of forest and destroyed wildlife habitats, most likely to be replaced by palm oil plantations.

巴西得以发布这些路线图,是因为其总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在刚刚过去的一周多前赢得了第四个总统任期。在卢拉执政的过去四年里,毁林率下降了约 70%。他击败的对手弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗——已入狱的前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗之子——如果当选,原本预计将回归其父亲对亚马孙雨林进行疯狂开发的政策。

Brazil was able to publish the roadmaps after its president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, won a fourth election term just over a week ago. In the last four years under Lula, deforestation rates have fallen by about 70%. His defeated opponent Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the jailed ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, had been expected if elected to return to his father’s policies of rampant exploitation of the Amazon rainforest.

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