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“赶路综合征”:专家指出佛罗里达州利尔喷气式飞机坠毁前的关键错误Get-there-itis: Expert spots crucial error before Learjet crash in Florida

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一架利尔喷气式飞机在从得克萨斯州飞往巴哈马的途中遭遇恶劣天气后,在佛罗里达州坠毁。专家正在研究避风、结冰和爬升尝试等因素,而调查人员尚未确定坠机原因。

A Learjet crashed in Florida after encountering severe weather during its journey from Texas to the Bahamas. Experts are examining storm avoidance, icing and a climb attempt, while investigators have yet to determine the cause.

据《纽约邮报》援引航空专家的话报道,决定飞越危险风暴而非选择更安全的航线,可能在该架注定失事的利尔喷气式飞机坠毁于佛罗里达州、导致机上九人全部遇难之前,就已将其推向灾难。这架价值 200 万美元的利尔 60 型飞机于周日从得克萨斯州飞往巴哈马途中遭遇恶劣天气。飞机在约 3.5 万至 3.7 万英尺高空失速,随后俯冲坠地,在棕榈滩县一个拖车公园附近撞击爆炸,化作一团火球。

A decision to fly through a dangerous storm instead of taking a safer route may have put a doomed Learjet on course for disaster before it crashed in Florida, killing all nine people on board, according to aviation experts cited by the New York Post. The USD 2 million Learjet 60 was travelling from Texas to the Bahamas on Sunday when it encountered severe weather. The aircraft stalled at an altitude of around 35,000 to 37,000 feet before plunging towards the ground and exploding in a fireball near a trailer park in Palm Beach County.

调查人员仍在努力查明坠机原因。然而,资深飞行员、包机预订平台 Jettly 首席执行官贾斯汀·克拉比对《纽约邮报》表示,尽管飞行员有选择绕飞风暴的选项,但他们可能犯下了继续穿越风暴的关键错误。

Investigators are still working to establish what caused the crash. However, veteran pilot Justin Crabbe, chief executive of charter-flight booking platform Jettly, told the NYP that the pilots may have made a critical error by continuing through the storm despite having the option to fly around it.

克拉比对《纽约邮报》说:“他们肯定应该绕飞(风暴)。”他补充称,空中交通管制员已给予机组人员改变航线以避开危险天气的灵活性。他说:“(空管)给了他们绕避该天气的灵活性。”

"They certainly should have gone around (the storm)," Crabbe told the NYP. He added that air traffic controllers had given the crew the flexibility to change their route to avoid the dangerous weather. "(Air-traffic control) gave them the flexibility to deviate around that weather," he said.

克拉比推测,飞行员可能急于抵达目的地,尽管天气状况恶化仍继续飞行。他将这种倾向描述为“到达综合征”,这是一种公认的航空风险,指飞行员过度专注于抵达目的地,从而可能忽视安全隐患。什么是“到达综合征”,它如何影响飞行员?

Crabbe suggested that the pilots may have been eager to reach their destination and continued with the journey despite the deteriorating conditions. He described this tendency as "get-there-itis", a recognised aviation risk in which pilots become so focused on reaching their destination that they may overlook safety concerns. WHAT IS 'GET-THERE-ITIS' AND HOW CAN IT AFFECT PILOTS?

据克拉布称,完成飞行任务的压力是飞行员在培训早期就被教导要识别的因素。想要到达目的地的愿望,尤其是在乘客等待或需要维持时刻表的情况下,即使天气条件导致飞行不安全,也会影响决策。

According to Crabbe, the pressure to complete a journey is something pilots are taught to recognise early in their training. The desire to reach a destination, particularly when passengers are waiting or a schedule needs to be maintained, can influence decisions even when weather conditions make flying unsafe.

“这是一个叫‘到达癖’的理论,飞行学校很早就会教你这一点,”克拉布说。

"It's a theory called 'get-there-itis,' and flight schools teach you this very early on," Crabbe said.

“这是一个风险因素。作为飞行员,你必须退后一步,理解是什么在推动你以可能危及飞行安全的方式进行这次行程、这次机动、这次旅程。” 该飞机搭载两名飞行员和七名乘客,其中包括科技企业家亚当·罗宾逊、他的妻子海伦、他们年幼的两个孩子——4岁的艾玛和2岁的查理、两位成年朋友雷切尔·里德和查米·费尔,以及家庭保姆阿尼塔·玛丽亚·阿佩利多·塞蒂纳。

"It's a risk factor. You have to sit back as a pilot and understand what is pushing you to do this trip, this maneuver, this journey in a way that may compromise the safety of the flight." The aircraft was carrying two pilots and seven passengers, including technology entrepreneur Adam Robinson, his wife Helen, their two young children, Emma, 4, and Charlie, 2, two adult friends, Rachael Reed and Charmi Fehr, and the family's nanny, Anita Maria Apellido Cetina.

结冰警告与冒险爬升尝试 该飞机遭遇风暴似乎给机组人员带来了另一个严峻挑战:飞机结冰。

ICING WARNING AND A RISKY ATTEMPT TO CLIMB The aircraft's encounter with the storm appears to have presented the crew with another serious challenge: ice accumulating on the plane.

据报道,20岁的副驾驶纳塔莉亚·菲尔盖拉斯曾向空中交通管制报告机外温度低于零度,且机身外部正在结冰。随后她请求并获准从35000英尺爬升至37000英尺,显然是试图爬升到天气系统上方的晴空区域。

The co-pilot, 20-year-old Nathalia Filgueiras, reportedly informed air traffic control about sub-zero temperatures outside the aircraft and ice forming on its exterior. She subsequently requested and received clearance to climb from 35,000 feet to 37,000 feet, apparently in an attempt to reach clearer air above the weather system.

结冰会严重影响飞机保持飞行的能力。当冰积聚在机翼上时,会改变产生升力所需的平滑气流。这会增加阻力,并可能使飞机更难维持飞行。

Icing can seriously affect an aircraft's ability to remain airborne. When ice accumulates on the wings, it changes the smooth airflow needed to generate lift. This increases drag and can make it harder for the aircraft to maintain its flight.

尽管这架利尔60型喷气机配备了除冰系统,但在恶劣天气条件下,此类设备并不总能防止结冰。

Although the Learjet 60 was equipped with a de-icing system, such equipment cannot always prevent ice from accumulating under severe weather conditions.

克拉布对《纽约邮报》表示,爬升的决定可能让局势恶化,因为这增加了空气动力学失速的可能性。失速是指机翼因迎角过大,无法再产生足够升力的现象。这被称为迎角。

Crabbe told the NYP that the decision to climb may have made the situation worse by increasing the possibility of an aerodynamic stall. A stall occurs when a wing can no longer generate enough lift because the angle at which it meets the oncoming airflow becomes too steep. This is known as the angle of attack.

当机翼上有冰时,其产生升力的能力会下降。因此,飞机可能在比洁净机翼条件下更低的迎角时发生失速。克拉布说,飞行员可能发现自己陷入了两难境地:爬升进入更清晰的空域并冒着触发失速的风险,或者停留在较低高度的风暴中面临进一步的结冰。

When ice is present on the wings, their ability to generate lift is reduced. As a result, the aircraft can stall at a lower angle of attack than it normally would under clean-wing conditions. Crabbe said the pilots may have found themselves caught between two dangerous choices: climb towards clearer air and risk triggering a stall, or remain lower in the storm and face further ice accumulation.

他还警告说,在不了解驾驶舱内面临的压力的情况下,不应评判机组人员的决定。

He also cautioned against judging the crew's decisions without understanding the pressure they were facing inside the cockpit.

这次爬升尝试可能不足以让飞机脱离恶劣天气。报告引用的美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)数据显示,对流性风暴系统延伸至近5万英尺高空。这意味着莱尔喷气式飞机计划爬升至3.7万英尺,可能仍处于风暴之中。

The attempt to climb may not have been enough to get the aircraft clear of the weather. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), cited in the report, indicated that the convective storm system extended to nearly 50,000 feet. That meant the Learjet's planned climb to 37,000 feet may still have left it inside the storm.

波德赫斯特·奥塞克律师事务所的航空律师扎卡里·S·戈尔维茨,该事务所负责调查和诉讼空难案件,将当时的条件描述为天气危害的异常危险组合。

Aviation lawyer Zachary S. Gorwitz of Podhurst Orseck, a law firm that investigates and litigates air crash cases, described the conditions as an unusually dangerous combination of weather hazards.

他说:“这可以说是麻烦的完美风暴。”他还指出,在飞机已经面临结冰的情况下试图爬升越过风暴的危险。抬头爬升会增加迎角,可能加剧或触发单翼或双翼失速。飞行员为何可能无法恢复控制一旦这架利尔喷气机开始向地面俯冲,机组人员可能只有极短的时间和空间来恢复对飞机的控制。戈尔维茨表示,飞机在撞击地面前似乎已开始解体,表明局势已变得极难控制。

"This was kind of the perfect storm of trouble," he said. He also pointed to the danger of attempting to climb above the storm when the aircraft was already dealing with ice accumulation. Raising the nose to gain altitude increases the angle of attack, potentially aggravating or triggering a stall in one or both wings. WHY THE PILOTS MAY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO RECOVER Once the Learjet began plunging towards the ground, the crew may have had very little time or room to recover control of the aircraft. Gorwitz said the aircraft appeared to have started breaking apart before hitting the ground, suggesting that the situation had become extremely difficult to control.

这位专家还警告,不应将坠机归咎于副驾驶的年龄或经验。尽管20岁的菲格雷拉斯是与空管通话的机组成员,但戈尔维茨推测,资深飞行员很可能在操控飞机。

The expert also cautioned against blaming the crash on the co-pilot's age or experience. Although 20-year-old Filgueiras was the crew member communicating with air traffic control, Gorwitz suggested that the senior pilot was likely handling the aircraft.

虽然航空专家的观察为事件经过提供了可能的解释,但并未确定坠机原因。调查人员需要在确定导致这场悲剧的原因前,对飞机、飞行数据、驾驶舱录音、天气状况以及与空管的通话进行检查。

While the observations from aviation experts offer possible explanations for the sequence of events, they do not establish the cause of the crash. Investigators will need to examine the aircraft, its flight data, cockpit recordings, weather conditions and communications with air traffic control before determining what led to the tragedy.

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