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共和党在上次选举后犯了这个错误,民主党应引以为戒Republicans made this mistake after the last election. Democrats should learn from it.

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2026年3月23日,总统唐纳德·特朗普在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地走下空军一号。President Donald Trump disembarks Air Force One on March 23, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md.

2024年共和党获胜时,他们宣称仿佛已像富兰克林·罗斯福1932年或罗纳德·里根1980年那样,重塑了美国未来一代的政治版图。

When Republicans won in 2024, they talked as if they had reshaped American politics for a generation, the way Franklin Roosevelt did in 1932 or Ronald Reagan in 1980.

选举之夜,唐纳德·特朗普总统称其胜利是“一次历史性的重组,将各种背景的公民团结在共同常识的核心周围”。两年后,许诺的乐土竟成海市蜃楼。特朗普在独立选民、拉美裔选民和年轻男性等对其2024年胜选至关重要的群体中失去了支持。

On election night, President Donald Trump called his win “a historic realignment, uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”Two years later, the promised land has turned out to be a mirage. Trump has lost ground with independents, Latino voters and young men, among other groups who were crucial to his 2024 win.

在中期选举最后几天,共和党发现自己不得不在特朗普2024年轻松拿下的州份捍卫参议院席位,包括爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州。特朗普的支持率处于现代民调的最低水平之一,而共和党形象受损,近期盖洛普民调显示59%的美国人认为该党过于极端。

In the final days before the midterms, Republicans found themselves defending Senate seats in states Trump had carried comfortably in 2024, including Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. Trump’s approval rating is among the lowest in modern polling, while the GOP’s image has taken a hit, with 59% of Americans saying the party is too extreme in a recent Gallup poll.

哪里出了问题?特朗普及其共和党盟友将选民对现状的愤怒误读为可以为所欲为的授权。

What went wrong? Trump and his Republican allies mistook voters’ anger with the status quo for a mandate to do whatever they wanted.

他们派遣移民执法人员进入法院、学校和教堂,保障措施寥寥无几,导致数百名美国公民被误捕,并创下羁押期间死亡人数的新纪录。他们安插两名亿万富翁分别掌管教育部和商务部,并让世界首富负责在缺乏透明度、问责制且不顾宪法限制的情况下大幅削减联邦政府。他们通过倾向富人的减税法案,同时削减医疗补贴、削减SNAP福利和医疗补助覆盖范围,并削弱其他劳动家庭赖以生存的项目。

They sent immigration agents into courthouses, schools and churches with so few safeguards that they swept up hundreds of U.S. citizens and set a record for deaths in detention. They installed two billionaires to run the Education and Commerce departments and put the world’s richest man in charge of slashing the federal government with little transparency, accountability or regard for constitutional limits. They passed tax cuts tilted toward the wealthy while slashing healthcare subsidies, cutting SNAP benefits and Medicaid coverage, and weakening other programs that working families rely on.

民调显示,绝大多数美国人不赞成这些政策。但对他们政治前途损害最大的错误,可能是实施广泛关税和发动与伊朗的战争,这两项举措全面推高了美国人的物价,加剧了最初将他们送上台的那个问题。

Polls showed broad majorities of Americans disapproved of these policies. But their most damaging mistakes politically may have been imposing broad-based tariffs and launching a war with Iran, both of which raised prices for Americans across the board, making worse the very problem that had gotten them elected in the first place.

这一失误为民主党在中期选举中创造了机会。但他们必须时刻铭记共和党的前车之鉴。

This mistake has given Democrats an opening in the midterms. But they need to keep the example of Republicans front of mind.

如果民主党赢得国会一院或两院的控制权,就必须竭尽全力表明,他们正在收拾共和党留下的烂摊子。根据设计,特朗普所谓的“一个宏伟美丽法案”许多最恶劣的条款要等到明年、新一届国会宣誓就职后才会生效。这些条款包括:取消不再符合医疗补助资格人群的税收抵免,以及终止基于经济困难的学生贷款延期还款。

If Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress, they need to do everything in their power to show that they are cleaning up Republicans’ mess. By design, many of the worst aspects of Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill will not come until next year, once the new Congress is sworn in. These include revoking tax credits for those no longer qualifying for Medicaid and ending student loan deferments based on economic hardship.

他们未必能在每场斗争中获胜,但可以不断把那些能帮助陷入困境的家庭的简单提案摆在特朗普及其共和党盟友面前。共和党要么妥协,让民主党赢得一场胜利;要么对抗,再次表明他们依然不在乎普通美国人的死活。这给了民主党一个机会,既能为自己的议程提出实质性的论证,又能让共和党处于守势。

They may not win every fight, but they can keep putting simple ideas that would help struggling families before Trump and his Republican allies. The GOP will either fold, giving Democrats a win, or fight, showing again that it still does not care about everyday Americans. That gives Democrats a chance to make a substantive case for their agenda while putting Republicans on the defensive.

与此同时,他们可以利用国会委员会调查特朗普肆无忌惮的自我敛财、政府与国防及移民承包商达成的利润丰厚的交易,以及任何其他能让美国人清楚看到共和党在过去两年造成多大损害的事情。这或许能阻止其中一些做法,但即使做不到,也能提醒选民,两党的利益究竟站在哪一边。

At the same time, they can use congressional committees to investigate Trump’s brazen self-enrichment, the government’s lucrative deals with defense and immigration contractors and anything else that will make it plain to Americans how much damage the Republican Party has done over the past two years. That may help stop some of it, but even if it does not, it will help remind voters where each party’s interests lie.

就目前而言,选民在经济问题上更信任民主党。但这可能就像2024年他们对共和党的信任一样昙花一现。正如教授兼播客主持人斯科特·加洛韦最近所言:“选民在中期选举中和我们‘约会’,并不意味着他们想和我们‘结婚’。”民主党必须迅速成为“结婚材料”,否则他们将面临一段短暂的蜜月期。

For now, voters trust Democrats more on the economy. But that may prove just as short-lived as their trust in Republicans in 2024. As professor and podcast host Scott Galloway put it recently, “Just because voters hook up with us in the midterms doesn’t mean they want to marry us.”Democrats need to become marriage material quick, or they are in for a short honeymoon.

想要获得迈克尔·斯蒂尔、西蒙·桑德斯·汤森德和卢克·拉塞特更多发人深省的见解,请收看“周夜谈”,每周一至周五美国东部时间晚上7点,在MS NOW播出。

For more thought-provoking insights from Michael Steele, Symone Sanders Townsend and Luke Russert, watch “The Weeknight” every Monday to Friday at 7 p.m. ET on MS NOW.

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