
新奥尔良——1992年,詹姆斯·卡维尔躺在沙发上,电话贴在耳边,说出了一句关于美国选民的话,这句话至今仍伴随着他:“关键是经济,蠢货。”当时他是未来总统比尔·克林顿的竞选经理,失业率徘徊在7%以上,医疗费用是一个持续的担忧。
NEW ORLEANS—Lying on a couch in 1992, a phone to his ear, James Carville uttered a line about the U.S. electorate that has followed him to this day: “It’s the economy, stupid.”He was future President Bill Clinton’s campaign manager at the time, when unemployment was hovering above 7% and healthcare costs were a persistent worry.
如今,卡维尔更常以评论员身份为人所知,其观点有时颇具争议。周日发布的一段视频中,他用一个粗俗的比喻猛烈抨击民主党众议员海莉·史蒂文斯,后者做出了一个令人震惊的决定,背书密歇根州的共和党参议院候选人。卡维尔说,共和党会把史蒂文斯视为“用过的避孕套”。《华尔街日报》致电卡维尔,询问他对该言论的看法。“视频本身说明一切,”他说。
Carville is often better known today as a commentator with sometimes controversial takes. In a video posted Sunday, he used a crude metaphor to slam Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens for her stunning decision to endorse the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan. Carville said the GOP would view Stevens like a “used condom.”The Wall Street Journal called Carville to ask him about his comments. “The video speaks for itself,” he said.
卡维尔至今最出名的依然是34年前说的那句话,尽管他希望人们更多地关注腐败问题。这位82岁老人上周接受《华尔街日报》采访,谈论经济、大选以及他对民主社会主义者的看法。问答经编辑删减,以求简明清晰:“关键是经济,蠢货”这句话是怎么来的?
The line Carville remains most famous for is the one that he uttered 34 years ago, even as he wishes people would focus more on corruption. The 82-year-old sat down with the Journal last week to talk about the economy, election and his views on Democratic Socialists. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity: Where did “It’s the economy, stupid” come from?
总统竞选团队里有很多聪明人,我们这边也有很多、很多受过高等教育的人。那句话更多是给竞选团队听的,而不是给公众听的。它从来不是一条广告。它出现在一部纪录片里。意思是:好吧,大家深呼吸,冷静一下。我们主打的是变革。那句“经济,蠢货”,意思是:别显得太聪明。咱们把这该死的东西稍微弄得浅显点。
There are a lot of smart people that work on presidential campaigns, and we had a lot, a lot of highly educated people. That was more for the campaign than it was for the public. It was never an ad. It was in a documentary. And it was to say, all right, let’s take a deep breath here. We’re about change. And the “economy, stupid,” was: Don’t be so smart. Let’s dumb this goddamn thing down a little bit.
我觉得真正起到改变作用的是“别忘了医疗”。如果你在焦点小组里问人们听过多少次“我离破产只有一场病的距离”,那将是百万次。他们并没有在经济和医疗之间划一条硬界限,现在这两样东西有点融合成一件事了。
The one I think has really kind of changed [is] “don’t forget healthcare.”If you ask someone how many times in a focus group they’ve heard, “I’m one disease away from bankruptcy,” it would be a million. They don’t have a hard dividing line between the economy and healthcare, it’s kind of meshed into one thing now.
在最近一期播客节目中,你说你已经厌恶这句名言了。这在多大程度上属实?
On a recent podcast, you said you had come to detest this famous line. To what extent is that the case?
人们若引用那句话来暗示除经济外别无他物,我认为这很不幸。我当时说那句话时,相当确信是在特定语境下说的。每当我听到有人说“哦,没人在乎腐败,大家只在乎生活成本”,我都觉得这简直是胡说八道。那句话竟会激发某人做出如此愚蠢的观察,对此我深感遗憾,我为他们感到遗憾。与1992年相比,经济是否仍是大多数选民最关心的首要议题?
To the extent that people use that quote to say that nothing else matters but the economy, I think is unfortunate. I was pretty sure when I said that to say it in context. Every time I hear somebody say, “Oh, no one cares about corruption, they just care about the cost of living,” I think it’s insane. The fact that that quote would inspire somebody to make such an idiotic observation, I’m sorry, I’m sorry they did. Compared with 1992, is the economy still the top issue for most voters?
人们的生活水平始终占据主导地位,过去如此,将来也永远如此。但这并不意味着人们不在乎有人偷窃——这就是某些人对这句话的解读方式。这在任何地方的政治中始终都是至关重要的议题。当涉及在任者时,人们对经济的满意度高度决定选举结果。我认为这不会改变。在经济恶劣时期,它显然更重要。时局越艰难,人们越会去想它。如何看待年轻人的挫败感及其对民主社会主义的兴趣?
People’s standard of living is always dominant and always has been, and it’s never not going to be. But that doesn’t mean that people don’t care about somebody stealing. Which is the way this gets interpreted by some people. It’s always been a paramount issue in politics anywhere. People’s economic satisfaction is highly determinative of election outcomes when it relates to incumbents. I don’t think it varies. It obviously matters more in bad economic times. The worse of times the more people think about it. What do you make of the frustration among young people and their interest in Democratic socialism?

那些在某种程度上属于资本主义者的人,当然包括我自己,我们必须进行一次严肃的清算。因为这套体制没有产出成果,它确实没有为大多数年轻人产出良好的成果。回想一下,那两样被反复灌输到他们脑海里、让他们以此为奋斗目标的东西,是拥有住房和四年制大学学位。从我的角度来看,这两样东西似乎每天都在变得更贵。你对美国民主社会主义者(DSA)吸引力的看法有变化吗?
People who that at some level are capitalists, certainly includes myself, we’ve got to do a serious reckoning here. Because the system is not producing, it’s really not producing very well for most young people. Go back to the two commodities that’s been drilled in their head that they should aspire to is homeownership and a four-year college degree. From where I sit it looks like it’s getting more expensive by the day. Has your opinion on the appeal of the DSA changed?
我唯一想对他们说的是,他们痛恨民主党。为什么要用我们的名字?想个自己的名字吧。我是说实话,如果民主党那么糟、那么腐败。克林顿夫妇、奥巴马夫妇和富兰克林·罗斯福把我们全拖进了沟里——那别用这个名字。你对中期选举有何预测?
The only thing I would say to them, they hate the Democratic Party. Why use our name? Think of your own name. I mean honestly, if it’s so bad and so corrupt. The Clintons and the Obamas and Franklin Roosevelt drug us all in a ditch—well, don’t use that name. What are your midterm predictions?
我确实尽量少花时间去预测选举结果。我尽我所能去影响结果。但我认为,除非你在冬眠,否则不可能看不出这将是民主党的有利之年。227个席位和247个席位之间的差别简直是天壤之别。我们只能像其他人一样耐心等待,看看这场胜利的范围有多大。你认为民主党目前在经济方面的计划是什么?
I really try to spend as little time as I can trying to predict election outcomes. I do what I can to affect them. But I think you’d have to be hibernating not to see this is going to be a favorable Democratic year. The difference between 227 seats and 247 seats is all the difference in the world. We’re just going to have to be patient like everybody else and see what the scope of this is. What do you think the Democrats’ plan is right now on the economy?

退出伊朗。这是头号计划。我认为他们会做诸如投票提高最低工资;投票取消对年收入超过50万美元者的减税措施。他们会投票开设更多农村医院。所有这些都会被否决。我认为他们首先应该做的是通过一项禁止国会议员炒股的禁令。这很容易,马上就能做。这能向民众表明态度。你想开个好头。这是一次容易通过的投票。极受欢迎。联邦赤字重要吗?
Get out of Iran. That’s plan number one. I think they’re going to do things like vote to raise the minimum wage; they’re going to vote to do away with the tax cuts [on] incomes over half a million dollars a year. They’re going to vote to open more rural hospitals. That’s all going to get vetoed. I think the first thing they should do is pass a ban on stock trading by members of Congress. It’s easy, you can do it right away. It shows people. You want to get off on the right foot. It’s an easy vote. It’s hugely popular. Is the federal deficit important?
总有一天人们决定赤字不重要了。所以我认为在本财年,联邦政府有5.4万亿美元的收入和7.4万亿美元的支出。这意味着我们一年内的支出比收入多出两万亿美元。这些事情在成为问题之前都不是问题,一旦成为问题,就为时已晚。我也不知道。我当然能预见巨额赤字,那是疫情期间本该出现的赤字。它们存在的理由就是这个。我认为这最终会引爆危机。你认为还有什么问题是人们关注不够的?
One day people decided the deficit didn’t matter. So this fiscal year, I think I’m right, the federal government has got $5.4 trillion in receipts and $7.4 trillion in outlays. That means we are spending, in one year, two trillion more than we’re taking in. These things are not a problem until they become a problem, and then it’s too late. And I don’t know. I can certainly see big deficits, that’s what you’re supposed to run during the pandemic. That’s why they exist. I think it’s just going to blow up on us. What other issues do you think people aren’t paying enough attention to?

不平等和腐败。没有比这更大的问题了。对我来说,我看不到,很难看到情况会好转。不平等和腐败,就是一切。当然,处于不利地位的人明白是腐败在驱动不平等,他们会一次又一次地告诉你这一点。
Inequality and corruption. There’s nothing bigger. To me, I don’t see it, it’s hard to see it get better. Inequality and corruption, just, it’s everything. Of course, the people who are on the wrong side of that understand that the corruption is driving the inequality, and they will tell you that time and time again.