国际关系专家、乔治城大学和特拉维夫大学教授约西·沙因周二接受103FM电台采访，分析以色列与美国关系的变化、美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政治阵营内部反对以色列声音的增长，以及这对两国同盟关系的潜在影响。
Prof. Yossi Shain, an international relations expert at Georgetown University and Tel Aviv University, spoke to 103FM on Tuesday, analyzing changes in relations between Israel and the US, growing opposition to Israel within US President Donald Trump's political camp, and the potential implications for the alliance between the two countries."
“我们目前正处于以美关系范式转变的阶段，”沙因说。“几十年来，这些关系被定义为特殊关系，这种特殊地位建立在我们所谓的两大支柱之上：共同价值观和战略需求。”
We are currently at a stage of a paradigm shift in relations between Israel and the US," Shain said. "For decades, these relations were defined as special relations, and that special status was based on what we called the two pillars of shared values and strategic needs."
谈及支撑两国关系的共同价值观，沙因解释说，这些基础正日益受到挑战。
Addressing the shared values underpinning the relationship, Shain explained that those foundations are increasingly being challenged."
“在价值观方面，现在有人正在动摇它们。在美国，人们不再必然视我们为拥有共同价值观的伙伴，不仅在民主党内部如此，在推动特朗普政治基本盘的‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）运动的许多知名人士中也是如此，”他说。据沙因称，美国对以色列战略重要性的看法也在经历重大变化。
In terms of values, there are now those who are undermining them. In the US, people no longer necessarily see us as partners who share their values, not only within the Democratic Party, but also among many prominent figures in the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement that drives Trump's political base," he said. According to Shain, the American perception of Israel's strategic importance is also undergoing significant changes."
“在战略需求方面，继与伊朗的战争之后，美国许多人——除了加沙战争期间发生的事情之外——正在形成一种理论，认为以色列不仅不再是战略伙伴，而且在战略上已控制了美国的利益，直接违背美国自身的国家利益，”他说。“这是一场关乎以色列地位和声誉的巨大斗争。”
In terms of strategic needs, following the war with Iran, many in the US, beyond what happened during the Gaza war, are developing theories that Israel is not only no longer a strategic partner, but has strategically taken control of American interests in direct opposition to America's own national interests," he said." This is an enormous battle over Israel's standing and reputation."
沙因还描述了他从一些以色列最亲密的美国支持者那里听到的担忧。“我带着极大的担忧说这话。
Shain also described the concerns he has heard from some of Israel's closest supporters in the US."I say this with great concern.
连我们最好的朋友都跟我说：‘约西，你今晚得好好想一想，’”他说。
Even our best friends tell me, 'Yossi, you need to do some serious thinking tonight,'" he said.
尽管发出了这些警告，沙因仍强调了以色列对美国安全的贡献，以及两国之间广泛的军事合作。“对于那些愿意看事实的人来说，迈克尔·奥伦是对的，即以色列作为盟友，为美国的安全做出了独特贡献，”他说。“战争部长赫格塞斯在战争期间曾表示，自第二次世界大战以来，从未发生过这样的事情，以色列和美国飞行员并肩作战，执行了数千架次的出击和行动，追求共同的国家利益。”
Despite his warnings, Shain emphasized Israel's security contribution to the US and the extensive military cooperation between the two countries." For those who are willing to look at the facts, Michael Oren is right that Israel makes a unique contribution to America's security as an ally," he said." Secretary of War Hegseth said during the war that nothing like this had happened since World War II, with Israeli and American pilots flying shoulder to shoulder, carrying out thousands of sorties and operations in pursuit of a shared national interest."
然而，沙因认为美国政治的变化给以色列带来了新的挑战。“与此同时，美国变了，特朗普自己党内有许多声音警告说，如果总统因以色列而发动战争，他将发现自己失去国会、失去参议院、失去‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）运动，”他说。“美以同盟无可替代”沙因接着谈到了特朗普政治运动内部的分歧，以及对与强力支持以色列有关人物日益增长的敌意。
However, Shain argued that changes in American politics have created new challenges for Israel." At the same time, the US has changed, and there are many voices within Trump's own party warning that if the president launches a war because of Israel, he will find himself without Congress, without the Senate, and without MAGA," he said.' There is no substitute for the alliance with America'Shain went on to address internal divisions within Trump's political movement and the growing hostility toward figures associated with strong support for Israel."
“这并不意味着白宫里不再有支持以色列的人，特别是与所谓‘让美国再次伟大’运动相关的新保守主义者，”他说。“但这个运动已经变了，开始把鲁比奥和蓬佩奥等新保守主义者视为有毒之物，视为以色列对美国自身国家利益的操纵。”
That does not mean there are no longer people in the White House who support Israel, particularly among the neoconservatives associated with what is called the MAGA movement," he said." But this movement has changed and has come to identify neoconservatives, such as Rubio and Pompeo, as something toxic, as an Israeli manipulation of America's own national interests."
沙因警告，这些发展可能对以色列的国际地位及其与华盛顿的关系产生严重后果。“在渗透美国每个角落的敌意掩护下，以色列军队也在助长这种敌意，我们未能维系这段关系的两大支柱，以及我们在国会和参议院两党的支持，”他说。“结果，我们可能会——但愿别发生这种事——发现自己……”我们发现自己处于一个非常困难的境地。
Shain warned that these developments could have serious consequences for Israel's international standing and its relationship with Washington." Under the cover of hostility that is penetrating every corner of the US, and which Israeli forces are also fueling, we have failed to preserve the two pillars of the relationship and our support on both sides of Congress and the Senate," he said." As a result, we could, God forbid, find ourselves in a very difficult position.
“与美国的同盟关系无可替代，中国无法成为替代选择。”他补充说，关于美国对以色列财政和军事援助的争论并非新鲜事，但近年来这一问题日益政治化。“特朗普今天的行动是在多年关于削减美国援助的讨论之后采取的，这并不新鲜，”沙因说。“但这些程序的政治化正在严重损害以色列的地位。”“这些问题仍需解决”：沙因谈利伯曼对内塔尼亚胡的立场在采访接近尾声时，沙因还谈到了以色列的国内政治局势，特别是“以色列我们的家园”党主席阿维格多·利伯曼关于总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的立场。
There is no substitute for the alliance with America, and China cannot serve as an alternative." He added that the debate over American financial and military assistance to Israel is not new, but that the issue has become increasingly politicized in recent years." Trump's actions today come after years of discussion about reducing American aid, and that is nothing new," Shain said. "But the politicization of these processes is deeply damaging Israel's standing."' These issues will still need to be worked out': Shain addresses Liberman's position on NetanyahuToward the end of the interview, Shain also addressed Israel's domestic political situation, particularly Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman's position regarding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu."
“利伯曼站在其政党选民面前表示，他不会与内塔尼亚胡达成任何协议，并称其为‘犯罪组织头目’，”沙因说。他还提到了利伯曼关于组建以色列下届政府的表态。“他表示，即使被提议担任首轮轮值总理，也不会与内塔尼亚胡同台共事，”沙因指出。“与此同时，他说他会推荐艾森科特，同时宣称打算加入一个犹太复国主义政府。因此，这些问题仍需解决。”
Liberman stood before his party's voters and said he would not make any deal with Netanyahu, whom he called 'the head of a criminal organization,'" Shain said. He also referred to Liberman's statements regarding the formation of Israel's next government." He said he would not sit with Netanyahu even if he were offered the first rotation as prime minister," Shain noted." At the same time, he said he would recommend Eisenkot, while also declaring that he intends to join a Zionist government. Therefore, these issues will still need to be worked out."