德国汉堡讯——对于德国人权律师斯特凡·穆勒来说，飞往法兰克福—台北航线，这条通常飞越巴基斯坦的航线，已是家常便饭。
HAMBURG, Germany -- Flying the Frankfurt-Taipei route, which usually passes over Pakistan, is routine for German human rights lawyer Stefan Muller.
这位不愿透露真实姓名的国际特赦组织义务律师，经常前往台北探望朋友。他告诉《日经亚洲》，当他收到台湾国泰航空（中国航空）关于其10月28日CI62航班时刻表变更的通知时，并未在意。这次旅程却成了他人生中最可怕的经历之一。起飞后不久，机上地图显示飞机正向北飞行。
The pro bono lawyer for Amnesty International, who did not want to give his real name, often visits friends in Taipei. The lawyer told Nikkei Asia that he thought nothing of it when he received a notification from Taiwanese flag carrier China Airlines of a change in schedule for his Oct. 28 Flight CI62. The journey turned out to be one of the scariest episodes of his life. Shortly after departure, the in-flight map showed that the plane was heading north.
“这怎么可能？我立刻知道有问题，于是问了一名空乘人员，她只是说：‘我们走不同的航线，’”他回忆道。
"How could that be?
“下次我查看时，我们已飞越芬兰，我意识到我们正飞越俄罗斯，”他说，想到要在那个辽阔国家上空飞行数小时，他陷入了恐慌。
I knew immediately that something wasn't right, so I asked a flight attendant, and she just said, 'We're taking a different route,'" he recalled.
他的担忧并非没有根据，鉴于俄罗斯已将国际特赦组织定为非法组织。2021年5月，俄罗斯盟友白俄罗斯编造炸弹威胁，迫使希腊至立陶宛的瑞安航空4978号航班在其首都明斯克降落，以逮捕一名反对派活动人士和一名记者。
"The next time I checked, we were over Finland, and it dawned on me that we're flying over Russia," he said, panicking at the thought of flying for hours over that vast country. His fears aren't unfounded, given as Russia has outlawed Amnesty International.
另见：台湾航空对巴基斯坦对台政策的困惑助长对中国挤压的担忧。直到该律师安全抵达台北附近的桃园机场后，他才得知巴基斯坦已撤销台湾航空公司的飞越权，据称理由是支持北京的“一个中国”政策。中国声称台湾是其领土，这一主张遭到台北的强烈拒绝，中国与巴基斯坦长期保持密切关系。
In May 2021, Russian ally Belarus faked a bomb threat to force the landing of Ryanair Flight 4978 between Greece and Lithuania in its capital, Minsk, to arrest an opposition activist and a journalist. See also Confusion over Pakistan policy on Taiwan airlines fuels China squeeze fears It was not until after the lawyer landed safely at Taoyuan airport near Taipei that he learned Pakistan had revoked overflight rights for Taiwanese airlines, allegedly citing support for Beijing's "One China" policy. China, whose claims that Taiwan is its territory are strongly rejected by Taipei, has long-standing close ties with Pakistan.
尽管禁令仅维持了很短时间，但它基本上迫使台湾的航空公司不得不飞越波罗的海、芬兰、俄罗斯和日本，而不是穿越巴尔干半岛、中亚、巴基斯坦、印度和中国返回家园。
Though the ban was in place only briefly, it essentially forced Taiwan's airlines to fly over the Baltic Sea, Finland, Russia and Japan -- rather than crossing the Balkans, Central Asia, Pakistan, India and China -- to return home.
台湾交通部长10月28日回应媒体提问时表示，航空公司可以选择最适合其运营的航线。
Taiwan's minister of transportation and communications said on Oct. 28, in reply to media queries, that the airlines can choose routes that best suit their operations.
在此之前，台湾的两家航空公司——中华航空和长荣航空——与大多数欧洲航空公司保持一致，自2022年2月莫斯科入侵乌克兰以来，一直自愿避开俄罗斯领空。俄罗斯此前因一些欧洲国家对普京总统在乌克兰发动战争的政权实施制裁，作为报复，关闭了对部分欧洲航空公司的领空。
Until then, Taiwan's two carriers -- China Airlines and EVA Air -- had aligned with most European carriers and voluntarily avoided Russian airspace since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia had closed its airspace to some European carriers in retaliation for sanctions their governments imposed on President Vladimir Putin's regime over his war in Ukraine.
现在，这两家航空公司似乎将交通部长的表态视为绿灯。截至周二，航班追踪数据显示，中华航空和长荣航空继续在台北与法兰克福、慕尼黑、巴黎和维也纳之间的航班上穿越俄罗斯领空。中华航空和长荣航空均未回应《日经亚洲》的置评请求。
The airlines now seemed to have taken the transport minister's comment as a green light. As of Tuesday, flight trackers showed China Airlines and EVA Air continuing to cross Russian airspace on flights between the Taiwanese capital and Frankfurt, Munich, Paris and Vienna. China Airlines and EVA Air did not respond to Nikkei Asia's request for comment.
保罗·惠兰（左四）、埃文·格什科维奇和阿尔苏·库尔马舍娃于2024年8月从俄罗斯拘留中获释后，在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥的凯利机场合影留念。他们的举动在德国引发了警觉。
Paul Whelan (fourth from left), Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva pose for a picture at Kelly Field in San Antonio, Texas, after they were released from Russian detention in August 2024. Their moves are viewed with alarm in Germany.
“这是政治上危险的，并使乘客面临风险，因为俄罗斯正在违反所有国际法原则，并且过去曾击落过马来西亚航空MH17航班民用客机，”德国执政党基民盟议员、前武装部队高级军官罗德里希·基塞维特表示。
"It is politically dangerous and puts passengers at risk, as Russia is violating all tenets of international law and has, in the past, shot down civilian passenger airliner Flight MH17," said Roderich Kiesewetter, a lawmaker in Germany's ruling Christian Democratic Union party and a former high-ranking officer in the armed forces.
马来西亚航空MH17航班2014年从阿姆斯特丹飞往吉隆坡时，在乌克兰东部上空被亲俄武装击落，机上283名乘客和15名机组人员全部遇难。
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was headed from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur in 2014 when it was brought down by pro-Russian fighters over eastern Ukraine, killing all 283 passengers and 15 crew members.
“俄罗斯等恐怖国家越来越多地将所谓的人质外交作为权力和敲诈的工具，还有2021年瑞安航空航班在白俄罗斯被迫降落的先例，”基塞维特说。
"Terror states like Russia are increasingly employing so-called hostage diplomacy as a tool of power and extortion, and there is the 2021 precedent of the Ryanair flight's forced landing in Belarus," Kiesewetter said.
“人质外交”的一个近期例子涉及《华尔街日报》记者埃文·格什科维奇，俄罗斯将其拘留一年多，于2024年8月在一场高规格的囚犯交换中释放了他。
A recent example of "hostage diplomacy" involves Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich whom Russia detained for over a year before releasing in August 2024 in a high-profile prisoner exchange.
尽管飞越俄罗斯的安全影响极为负面，但商业逻辑表面上看是站得住脚的。据德国航空业顾问兼退休教授克里斯托夫·布吕策尔为《日经亚洲》制作的一项计算，此类航班可缩短约两小时，相当于节省约15吨航空燃料。
Though the security implications of flying over Russia are profoundly negative, the business rationale is ostensibly solid. Such flights are around two hours shorter, equating to a saving of about 15 tons of jet fuel, according to a calculation produced for Nikkei Asia by Christoph Bruetzel, a German aviation industry consultant and retired professor.
目前航空燃料价格约为每吨1500美元，此前美国和以色列在2月底攻击伊朗时，价格为每吨950美元。布吕策尔表示，考虑到中华航空波音777-300客机的358个座位，每趟航班可节省约22500美元，即每座位近63美元。
Jet fuel currently is priced around $1,500 per ton, up from $950 before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February. This works out to a saving of roughly $22,500 per flight, taking into account the 358 seats on China Airlines' Boeing 777-300, or nearly $63 per seat, Bruetzel said.
航空公司还能节省人工成本，因为漫长的绕飞需要配备更大规模的机组人员。自2022年以来，多家欧洲航空公司已暂停或削减飞往中国的航班，因为它们无法与仍可飞越俄罗斯的中国航空公司竞争。
Airlines also save on labor costs as lengthy detours require operating with bigger crews. Several European airlines have suspended or reduced service to China since 2022 because they were unable to compete with Chinese airlines that could continue to fly over Russia.
不过，一位欧洲观察人士表示，对台湾航空公司而言，长期影响可能是负面的。
Still, a European observer said the long-term implications for Taiwanese airlines could be negative.
“鉴于乌克兰战争的政治敏感性以及注重安全的欧洲乘客的担忧，它们面临声誉受损的风险，”慕尼黑商学院专注于亚太商业研究的教授克里斯蒂安·施米德科恩茨表示。“与俄罗斯领空相关的安全风险还可能导致保险费用上涨和额外的责任风险，这些可能会抵消潜在的成本节约。”在台北，穆勒正在为他的返程旅程做心理准备。他随后回忆起乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基9月的一次警告，即俄罗斯天空已不再适合民用航空，因为他的军队大多数夜晚都会向其较大的邻国发射远程无人机攻击。
"They risk reputational damage, given the political sensitivity surrounding the war in Ukraine and the concerns of safety-conscious European passengers," said Christian Schmidkonz, a professor focusing on Asian-Pacific business studies at Munich Business School. "The security risks associated with Russian airspace may also lead to higher insurance premiums and additional liability risks, which could offset those potential cost savings." In Taipei, Muller is preparing mentally for his return journey. He has since recalled a warning by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September that Russian skies are no longer safe for civil aviation because his army launches long-range drone attacks toward its larger neighbor most nights.
“夜间航班时，大多数人都会入睡，但我会保持清醒，”这位律师说。“我没有任何幻想：并非俄罗斯没有处于战争状态。” Jens Kastner 为撰稿人。
"Most people will be asleep during a night flight, but I will be awake," the lawyer said. "I'm under no illusions: It's not as if Russia isn't at war." Jens Kastner is a contributing writer.