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哈基姆·杰弗里斯如愿以偿获得多数席位Hakeem Jeffries gets the majority of his dreams

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众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯(民主党-纽约州)昨晚在华盛顿观看选举之夜结果时庆祝。照片:肯尼·霍尔斯顿/《纽约时报》House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) celebrates while watching election night results in Washington last night. Photo: Kenny Holston/The New York Times

众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯(民主党-纽约州)将主持一个压倒性的民主党多数,因为他的党赢得了特朗普总统以两位数优势获胜的选区。

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is set to preside over a commanding Democratic majority after his party swept districts President Trump carried by double digits. Why it matters:

为何重要:民主党的压倒性胜利将使可能的下一任议长更容易毫不费力地拿到议事槌,并无视其进步派的要求。

Democrats' landslide win will make it much, much easier for the likely next speaker to secure the gavel without a sweat and ignore the demands of his progressive wing.

  • 众议员格雷格·斯坦顿(民主党-亚利桑那州)是中间偏左的新民主党联盟的领导人之一,他周二晚间在接受Axios采访时表示,杰弗里斯“现在有空间充分发挥他作为议长的全部才能。”

• Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), a leader of the center-left New Democrat Coalition, told Axios in an interview Tuesday night that Jeffries "now has the space to utilize his full talents as speaker."

  • 斯坦顿说,民主党胜利的规模“让他可以在不担心被任何人利用的情况下治理。”

• The size of Democrats' victory, Stanton said, "allows him to govern without worrying about being leveraged by anyone."

新闻背景:杰弗里斯有望享受数十票的多数优势,纽约时报预测民主党将赢得多达256个席位,共和党178个席位。

Driving the news: Jeffries is on track to enjoy a majority of dozens of votes, with the New York Times projecting Democrats to win as many as 256 seats to Republicans' 178.

  • 民主党赢得了全国两党甚至都没有投入资金的选区,很可能击败了像劳伦·博伯特和理查德·哈德森这样的共和党众议员,他们几个月前还被认为是稳操胜券的。

• Democrats flipped districts where the national parties didn't even spend money, likely unseating Republicans such as Reps. Lauren Boebert and Richard Hudson who were considered safe just months ago.

  • 这对整个民主党来说是一场重大的党派胜利,但该党的中间派也将结果视为对左翼亟需的战略胜利。

• It's a major partisan win for Democrats as a whole, but the party's centrist wing is also hailing the result as a much-needed strategic victory over the left. Zoom in:

细节:进步派——特别是“集团”,由达里莉扎·阿维拉·舍瓦利埃和亚当·哈马维等强硬左翼人士组成的一个团体——曾希望利用微弱多数从杰弗里斯那里争取让步。

Progressives —particularly "The Bloc," a group made up of hard-charging leftists like Darializa Avila Chevalier and Adam Hamawy — had hoped to use a small majority to extract concessions from Jeffries.

  • 其中许多人拒绝承诺支持杰弗里斯担任议长,并表示将利用他们的投票作为筹码,迫使就全民医保、取消对移民与海关执法局的资助以及削减对以色列援助等进步派立法进行投票。

• Many of them have declined to commit to supporting Jeffries as speaker and signaled they would use their votes as leverage force votes on progressive legislation such as Medicare-for-All, defunding ICE and cutting aid to Israel.

  • 但左翼的策略“将与小幅多数时有所不同,”一位即将入职的众议院进步派议员告诉Axios,并指出“当拥有大多数席位时,领导层有更多灵活性。”

• But the left's strategy is "going to look different from what it would have been with a smaller margin," one incoming House progressive told Axios, noting that "leaders have more flexibility when they have big majorities."

  • 进步派“在这个巨大的多数席位下,实际上很难争取到什么,”一位进步派策略人士承认,并补充说,“我们不必进行这场关乎重大风险的杰弗里斯之争。”

• Progressives "can't really extract much now [with this] colossal majority," a progressive strategist acknowledged, adding that "we don't have to do this high stakes Jeffries fight."

读者须知:斯坦顿指出,大多数在摇摆州和红州选区获胜的新当选民主党人都获得了新民主党派的背书。

Between the lines: Stanton noted that most of the incoming Democrats who won in purple and red districts were endorsed by the New Dems.

  • 这个中间偏左的团体是杰弗里斯在党团中最可靠的权力基础之一。

• The center-left group is one of Jeffries' most reliable power bases in the caucus.

  • “每一位获得连任的新民主党人,每一位获得我们背书并今晚获胜的候选人——而且人数不少——我完全相信,他们都会投票支持哈基姆·杰弗里斯担任议长,”斯坦顿说。

• "Every single New Dem incumbent, every single candidate that got our endorsement that's winning tonight — and there's a lot of them — I have full confidence they're going to vote for Hakeem Jeffries as speaker," Stanton said.

但是:几位接受Axios采访的进步派人士指出,周二在深红选区中爆冷获胜的许多民主党人,竞选时更多地以乡村和铁锈地带民粹主义者的身份出现,而非传统的亲以色列、亲商业中间派人士。

Yes, but: Several progressives who spoke to Axios noted that many of the Democrats who won upset victories in deep-red districts on Tuesday ran more as rural and rust belt populists than traditional pro-Israel, pro-business centrists.

  • Axios去年10月报道,许多在特朗普以两位数优势领先的选区参选的民主党人,其竞选信息同样猛烈抨击本党领导层和共和党。

• As Axios reported in October, many Democrats who ran in Trump double-digit seats did so with a message that savaged their own party's leadership as much as the GOP's.

  • 一位进步派“集团”的新当选议员被问及,民主党的大胜是否会让左翼更难实现其诉求,他回答:“是的,但前提是领导层从今晚吸取了错误的教训。”

• An incoming member of the progressive "Bloc," asked if Democrats big margin would make it harder for the left to get their demands met, replied, "Yes, but only if leadership takes the wrong lessons from tonight."

  • “进步派民粹主义政治取得了压倒性胜利,并在无人预料的地方取得了极其接近的成绩。这种巨大的胜选幅度,意味着选民期待我们推行大胆的变革,”他补充说。

• "Progressive, populist politics won overwhelmingly and came ridiculously close in places no one expected to see. This kind of margin comes with an expectation that we deliver bold changes," they added. The bottom line:

结论:进步派正在警告杰弗里斯,他若将民主党的巨大胜利视为循序渐进执政的绿灯,将会后悔。

Progressives are warning Jeffries that he will regret looking at Democrats' massive victory as a green light to govern in increments.

  • “选民对他们希望看到的进步派经济议程有着明确的授权,”左翼正义民主党人发言人乌萨马·安德拉比说。

• "I think there's a clear mandate from voters on what sort of progressive economic agenda they want to see," said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for the left-wing Justice Democrats.

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