
MAHA与MAGA的联姻正经历迄今最艰难的时期。周二民主党的横扫,加上小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪一些最忠实追随者支持度的减弱,表明这段关系有充分理由走向破裂。肯尼迪如今在国会山面临敌意十足的民主党人的重重围堵,而其他人则在公开拉拢他的支持者。
The MAHA and MAGA marriage is going through its roughest patch yet. Tuesday’s sweep by the Democrats, along with waning support from some of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s biggest followers, suggests there’s plenty of reason for divorce. Kennedy now faces a gauntlet of hostile Democrats on Capitol Hill, while others are openly courting his supporters.
他的一些MAHA盟友将败选归咎于总统唐纳德·特朗普,指出他支持草甘膦——MAHA支持者称这种除草剂致癌——或在疫苗问题上缺乏影响深远的行动。
Some of his MAHA allies are blaming President Donald Trump for the loss, pointing to his support of glyphosate, a weedkiller MAHA supporters say causes cancer, or to the lack of far-reaching action against vaccines.
两年前,肯尼迪的“让美国再次健康”运动与唐纳德·特朗普的MAGA大军结合,是一场权宜之计。特朗普想要击败卡玛拉·哈里斯。肯尼迪则获得了一个推进食品、农业和疫苗政策的机会——这些政策在共和党政治的早期时代本是异端。
The union two years ago of Kennedy’s Make America Healthy Again movement and Donald Trump’s MAGA legions was one of convenience. Trump wanted to defeat Kamala Harris. Kennedy got a chance to pursue food, agriculture and vaccine policies that would have been anathema in earlier eras of Republican politics.
本周的失利让这一盘算陷入疑问,也引发了人们的思考:将MAHA和MAGA凝聚在一起的那股能量,能否支撑这个联盟走到2028年——以及共和党人是否充分争取到了那些帮助他们在2024年选出特朗普的选民。
This week’s losses have thrown that calculus into doubt, raising questions about whether the energy that brought MAHA and MAGA together can sustain the coalition into 2028 — and whether Republicans have sufficiently engaged the voters that helped them elect Trump in 2024.
“我希望每一位政客都被提醒:他们并没有买下这些选民,他们只是租用了他们。选民们已经表示他们要搬走了,而且他们未必搬向了民主党。民主党人将不得不去争取他们,”蒂芙尼·钱奇说。她是一名网络意见领袖,曾为肯尼迪的总统竞选做志愿者工作,并自认是无党派选民。
“I hope every single politician is reminded that they didn't buy these voters, they rented them. The voters have said they're moving, and they haven't necessarily moved to the Democrats. The Democrats are going to have to earn it,” said Tiffany Cianci, an online influencer who did volunteer work for Kennedy’s presidential campaign and identifies as an unaffiliated voter.
这位出身于著名民主党政治世家的肯尼迪,主张对超加工食品进行监管、限制农药使用,并要求制药公司在销售疫苗前通过更多审批关卡。而他在2024年8月退出总统竞选并加入特朗普阵营后所投靠的、亲商的共和党,则主张减少对商业的监管。通常与共和党结盟的行业团体,在过去两年里一直在国会和法院与肯尼迪交锋。
The scion of famously successful Democrats, Kennedy wants to regulate ultraprocessed foods, restrict pesticides and require pharmaceutical companies to jump through more hoops to sell their vaccines. The business-friendly Republican Party he joined when he dropped his own presidential campaign in August of 2024 and joined Trump’s wants to regulate business less. Industry groups typically aligned with the GOP have spent much of the last two years fighting Kennedy in Congress and in the courts.
这从一开始就导致了争吵。虽然一些共和党议员支持肯尼迪精简疫苗接种计划的推动,但其他人对此予以谴责。许多人反对他针对食用色素和农药采取行动的计划,并成功游说白宫将其缩减。
It led to bickering from the start. While some GOP lawmakers backed Kennedy’s push to downsize the vaccine schedule, others condemned it. Plenty of them opposed his plans to go after food dyes and pesticides, and successfully lobbied the White House to scale them back.
“让美国再次健康”(MAHA)支持者的不满在2月达到顶峰,当时特朗普签署了一项保护草甘膦的行政命令。
MAHA supporters’ frustrations spiked in February, when Trump issued an executive order protecting glyphosate.
此后,MAHA阵营对卫生部新任命的官员提出抱怨,例如疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)主任埃里卡·施瓦茨,她们不分享肯尼迪对疫苗的怀疑态度;同时也对肯尼迪未能将用于对抗新冠的mRNA疫苗撤出市场表示不满。
Since, there have been MAHA complaints about new Health Department appointees, like Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Erica Schwartz, who don’t share Kennedy’s skeptical views about vaccines, and Kennedy’s failure to take mRNA vaccines, like those used to combat Covid-19, from the market.
“蜜月期早已结束,”作为MAHA盟友的佛罗里达州卫生局局长约瑟夫·拉达波周三在一次支持者通话中表示。他认为,“我们在某些方面看到的MAHA与‘让美国再次伟大’(MAGA)之间的部分裂痕,在某种程度上可能是件好事,因为重要的是MAHA不要成为一个党派议题。”
"The honeymoon period came to an end some time ago," Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, a MAHA ally, said on a call with supporters Wednesday. He argued that the "partial fracture that we've seen between MAHA and MAGA in some ways may be a good thing because it's important that MAHA not be a partisan issue."
尽管如此,作为肯尼迪支持者并分享这位卫生部长对新冠疫苗安全性持怀疑态度的医生罗伯特·马龙表示,他预计会出现“重大人事变动、任命职位的行政重组、无休止的破坏性监督听证会、收缩战线,以及更多仅在边缘进行的温和改革努力。”民主党对MAHA运动有不同打算。一些人希望将其争取过来,理由是双方在食品和环境政策上存在共识。
Still, Robert Malone, a doctor and Kennedy backer who shares the health secretary’s skepticism of Covid-19 vaccine safety, said he expects “significant personnel changes, administrative restructuring of appointed positions, endless disruptive oversight hearings, retrenchment, and much more modest efforts to reform at the margins.”Democrats have divergent plans for the MAHA movement. Some want to win it over, citing food and environmental policies on which they agree.
密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德击败了前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯,他以“打造更健康的美国”政策议程参选,回应了“让美国再次健康”(MAHA)倡导者对食品安全和环境化学品的关切。由众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(民主党-纽约州)领导的一个众议院工作组建议该党争取肯尼迪的追随者。
Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who beat former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, ran on a “Building a Healthier America” policy agenda that spoke to MAHA advocates’ concerns about food safety and chemicals in the environment. A House working group led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has recommended the party court Kennedy’s followers.
上个月,美国最具影响力的民主党智库之一——美国进步中心发布了一份全面的政策大纲,鼓励左翼在食品和环境保护方面采纳MAHA平台。美国进步中心主席、克林顿、奥巴马和拜登政府前顾问尼拉·坦登表示,MAHA支持者对共和党的不满是民主党的一个“机会”。
Last month, the Center for American Progress, one of the most influential think tanks for Democrats, released a sweeping policy outline encouraging the left to adopt a MAHA platform around food and environmental protection. Neera Tanden, CAP’s president and a former adviser in the Clinton, Obama and Biden administrations, said MAHA supporters’ frustration with the GOP was an “opportunity for Democrats.”
在保守派智库遗产基金会从事MAHA事务的詹妮弗·加拉迪欢迎左翼的示好,但对他们的做法持怀疑态度。“MAHA的草根基础植根于保守原则……虽然民主党(特别是民主社会主义者)可能会提出所谓的MAHA议程,但不会遵循这些基本原则。”其他民主党人则不想与肯尼迪有任何瓜葛。他们关注的是肯尼迪散布对疫苗安全性的质疑,并计划通过在委员会听证会上严厉盘问他、传唤他及其工作人员,甚至弹劾他,将其赶下台。
Jennifer Galardi, who works on MAHA issues at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, welcomed the overtures from the left but remained skeptical about their approaches. “The grassroots of MAHA is rooted in conservative principles... while Democrats (particularly the Democratic socialists) may present a so-called MAHA agenda, it will not operate with these fundamental principles." Other Democrats want no part of Kennedy. They are focused on his efforts to sow doubt about vaccine safety and plan to drive him from office by grilling him in committee hearings, subpoenaing him and his staff, even impeaching him.
“我们将看到小肯尼迪的头颅被端上餐盘,”314行动政治行动委员会执行主任埃里克·波利亚克说。该委员会在本选举周期已花费超过3000万美元帮助民主党人,创下其十年历史新高。波利亚克表示,针对肯尼迪是其“最大的动力和筹款工具”。“小肯尼迪在过去一年半里的每一个行动、每一个利益冲突都将接受民主党的调查,”波利亚克告诉《政治报》。
"We're going to see RFK Jr.'s head on a platter,” said Erik Polyak, executive director of 314 Action, a political action committee that has spent more than $30 million in this election cycle helping Democrats, the most in its ten-year history. Polyak said targeting Kennedy was its “biggest motivator and fundraising tool.”“Every action that RFK Jr. has done over the past year and a half, every conflict of interest is going to be investigated by Democrats,” Polyak told POLITICO.
关于肯尼迪是否会因此辞职的传言不断。马龙表示,这位卫生部长的“个人立场是,他不是一个退缩的人,将坚持到底。”肯尼迪尚未公开回应这些问题。
Rumors have swirled about whether Kennedy would quit his role in response. Malone said the health secretary’s “personal position is that he is not a quitter and will stick it out.”Kennedy has not publicly addressed those questions.
目前,肯尼迪正继续他在全国的巡回行程。预计他将于周四前往北达科他州,出席新闻发布会,并与共和党参议员凯文·克拉默以及该州印第安部落就再生农业进行讨论。
For now, Kennedy is carrying on with his tour of the country. He’s expected to be in North Dakota Thursday for a press conference and discussions with Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer and the state’s Indian tribes on regenerative agriculture.
马龙说:“站出来对抗民主党人过度的调查攻势,可能是他恢复‘弱者勇敢对抗腐败势力’这一合法化定位的最佳选择。”
“Standing up to an overwrought Democratic investigative onslaught could be his best option for recovering his legitimizing position as underdog bravely fighting against corrupt forces,” Malone said.
肯尼迪卫生部高级新闻秘书艾米·希利亚德在一份电邮声明中表示,肯尼迪“将继续推行特朗普总统的‘让美国再次健康’议程,并推进将美国人民健康置于首位的历史性政策。”她赞扬了特朗普政府在健康问题上的工作,称其“改变了联邦食品和营养政策,扩大了预防和检测慢性病的力度,并重塑了联邦在科学研究和环境健康方面的做法。”对于“让美国再次健康”联盟而言,尤其是其中感到失望的民主党人和独立人士,共和党的选举失利使他们处于十字路口。
Emily Hilliard, senior press secretary at Kennedy’s Health Department, said Kennedy “will continue delivering President Trump’s Make America Healthy Again agenda and advancing historic policies that put the health of the American people first.”She praised the Trump administration’s work on health issues in an emailed statement, arguing it “has transformed federal food and nutrition policy, expanded efforts to prevent and detect chronic disease, and reshaped the federal approach to scientific research and environmental health.”For the MAHA coalition, particularly the disaffected Democrats and independents in it, the GOP’s election losses lead to a crossroads.
该运动旗下非营利组织和政治行动委员会网络的主席托尼·莱昂斯曾赞誉“让美国再次健康”是“送给共和党的一代难遇的政治礼物”,并于3月承诺筹集1亿美元,支持在中期选举中与“让美国再次健康”理念一致的共和党人。他警告支持者,民主党获胜将扼杀肯尼迪的议程。
Tony Lyons, president of the movement’s web of nonprofits and political action committees, once hailed MAHA as a "once in a generation political gift to the GOP” and committed in March to raise $100 million to support MAHA-aligned Republicans in the midterms. He warned supporters that Democratic wins would kill Kennedy’s agenda.
周三,他在共和党惨败后首次与支持者通话时表示,只要民主党人认同“让美国再次健康”(MAHA)的议程,该运动愿意与他们合作。莱昂斯对民主党是否真正关心MAHA议题表示怀疑,并向他们发出挑战:如果真关心,就应与肯尼迪合作,而不是试图在国会听证会上对他进行严厉盘问,或试图弹劾他。
On Wednesday, he said MAHA was willing to work with Democrats who embrace its agenda, during his first call with supporters since the GOP’s drubbing. Lyons expressed skepticism that Democrats really cared about MAHA issues and challenged them to prove that they do by working with Kennedy rather than trying to grill him in congressional hearings or impeach him.
莱昂斯说:“他们必须摆脱这种想法,即鲍比·肯尼迪以某种方式是‘坏人’,认为他们的工作是设法除掉他,而不是回应他提出的观点,因为这个国家有数百万人相信他所说的话,相信他给这个国家带来的变革。”
“They have to get out of this idea that Bobby Kennedy is somehow bad, that their job is to kind of get rid of him rather than address the points that he's brought up, because millions of people in this country believe the things that he said and believe the transformation that he's brought to this country,” Lyons said.
尽管如此,莱昂斯一直难以证明该运动的力量。他旗下团体的捐款远低于承诺数额,极少有候选人将肯尼迪的议题作为竞选核心。
Still, Lyons has struggled to demonstrate the movement's power. Donations from his groups have come in much smaller than promised and few candidates made Kennedy’s issues focal points in their campaigns.
联邦备案文件显示,截至10月底,莱昂斯的MAHA政治行动委员会(PAC)在联邦竞选中支出略超100万美元,其中约20.9万美元(约占20%)流向了竞争激烈的国会选区候选人。卫斯理大学的一项分析发现,共和党参众两院竞选广告中仅有0.2%提及了MAHA。
Federal filings show Lyons’ MAHA PAC spent a little over $1 million on federal races, with around $209,000, or roughly 20 percent, going to candidates in competitive congressional races by the end of October. An analysis from Wesleyan University found just 0.2 percent of Republican Senate and House ads mentioned MAHA.
保守派组织“转折点美国”(Turning Point USA)的MAHA影响者亚历克斯·沃特伯格表示:“从外观上看,MAHA似乎已成了一个事后诸葛亮的存在。”她补充说,共和党在中期选举中的失利意味着该党可能更有动力重新赢得MAHA支持者的青睐。
"The optics feel like MAHA has become an afterthought,” said Alex Voetberg, a MAHA influencer at Turning Point USA, a conservative group, adding that the Republican midterm loss means the party could be more incentivized to win back favor from MAHA supporters.
她说:“也许这意味着政府会开始意识到他们在我们身上犯了错,并开始向我们低声下气。”
“Maybe that will mean that the admin starts realizing they made a mistake with us and starts groveling at our feet,” she said.
周二晚间,大多数与肯尼迪及MAHA结盟的候选人(其中许多获得了莱昂斯旗下MAHA团体的背书)落选。
Most candidates aligned with Kennedy and MAHA, many of them endorsed by Lyons’ MAHA groups, lost Tuesday night.
其中包括爱荷华州共和党州长候选人扎克·兰,肯尼迪和MAHA团体为其当选投入了最多的资金和精力。
That includes Republican Iowa gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn, for whom Kennedy and MAHA groups spent the most money and expended the most energy to get elected.
共和党人阿什利·欣森竞逐即将卸任的乔尼·恩斯特留下的爱荷华州联邦参议员席位失败。共和党联邦众议员玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯和扎克·纳恩——肯尼迪曾试图助选的两人——也均告落选。另一名获肯尼迪背书的共和党爱荷华州候选人乔·米切尔,竞逐欣森留出的联邦众议员席位同样失利。
Republican Ashley Hinson lost her bid for the Iowa Senate seat of the retiring Joni Ernst. GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn, both of whom Kennedy had sought to help, lost. So did Joe Mitchell, another Kennedy-backed GOP candidate in Iowa running for the House seat vacated by Hinson.
参议院竞选对肯尼迪及其运动同样不利。共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿在得克萨斯州败给民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科,使“让美国再次健康”运动(MAHA)和肯尼迪失去了一位本会大力推动其事业的有力盟友。作为州检察长,帕克斯顿曾对食品、化工和制药公司展开调查,赢得MAHA支持者赞誉。
Senate races didn’t go any better for Kennedy and his movement. GOP candidate Ken Paxton’s loss in Texas to Democrat James Talarico deprives MAHA and Kennedy of what would have been a likely champion for their causes. As state attorney general, Paxton opened investigations into food, chemical and drug companies, earning praise from MAHA supporters.
堪萨斯州联邦参议员、国会MAHA核心小组主席罗杰·马歇尔在一场冷门中败给民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿。马歇尔是健康、教育、劳工和养老金委员会资深成员,一直是MAHA主张(如终结慢性病、改善营养)在立法层面的代言人。
Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, the chair of the MAHA Caucus in Congress, lost in a shocker to Democrat Adam Hamilton. Marshall, a senior member of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, has been the legislative voice for MAHA causes like ending chronic disease and improving nutrition.
在其他地方,南卡罗来纳州民主党儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯战胜共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆。安德鲁斯竞选期间曾因肯尼迪质疑疫苗安全性而抨击他,据报道称肯尼迪是她“几十年的职业宿敌”,并支持弹劾肯尼迪。
Elsewhere, Annie Andrews, a Democratic pediatrician who has criticized Kennedy throughout her campaign for questioning vaccine safety, scored a victory against Republican Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina. Andrews reportedly called Kennedy her “professional archnemesis for decades” and supports his impeachment.
MAHA团体在联邦和州层面共背书97名候选人。在21名获背书的联邦竞选候选人中,11人落选、6人当选,另有4场竞选结果未定。当选的6人均处于无竞争性选区。
MAHA groups endorsed 97 candidates across federal and state races. Of the 21 endorsed candidates in federal races, 11 lost and six won, while four races remain undeclared. The six candidates who won were in uncompetitive races.
在76名获背书的州级竞选候选人中,39人落选、28人当选,7场竞选结果未定。2名候选人无竞争对手自动当选。
Of the 76 endorsed candidates in state races, 39 lost, while 28 won, and 7 races remain undeclared. Two candidates won uncontested.
最终,民主党在众参两院均取得压倒性控制权,为明年主导掌管医疗卫生管辖权的委员会铺平道路。
Ultimately, Democrats won sweeping control of the House and Senate, paving the way for them to lead committees next year with jurisdiction over health care.
南卡罗来纳州的“让美国再次健康”(MAHA)运动支持者安德里亚·拉蒙特表示,共和党的失利标志着MAHA面临“非常大的风险”,并补充道:“我们的教练肯尼迪永远无法达阵得分,因为我们队里没有合适的球员。”MAHA运动中的其他人则认为,试图与单一政党结盟从来都讲不通,推动公共政策需要两党的盟友。由肯尼迪的粉丝琴·哈尼卡特创立的非营利组织“全美妈妈”上月通过背书多名民主党人(包括奥卡西奥-科尔特斯和参议员科里·布克)以及共和党人,为这一观点提供了支持。
Andrea Lamont, a MAHA supporter in South Carolina, said the Republican loss marked a “very big risk for MAHA,” adding: “Our coach Kennedy will never be able to make the touchdown because we don't have the right players on the team.”Others in the MAHA movement say it never made sense to try to align with one party and that moving public policy will require allies on both sides. Moms Across America, a nonprofit founded by Kennedy fan Zen Honeycutt, backed it up last month with endorsements of a number of Democrats, including Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Cory Booker, alongside Republicans.
周三,她表示预计民主党人会信守承诺,在MAHA议题上兑现诺言,否则要做好在2028年面临“一些独立力量的冲击”的准备。哈尼卡特还警告民主党人不要试图弹劾肯尼迪,理由是这会疏远肯尼迪的支持者,而这些人本可能在2028年投票给民主党。一些肯尼迪的支持者对未来持乐观态度。
On Wednesday, she said she expects Democrats to keep their word and deliver on MAHA issues or be ready for "some independent disruption" in 2028. Honeycutt also warned Democrats against trying to impeach Kennedy, arguing that would turn off Kennedy supporters who might vote for Democrats in 2028. Some Kennedy supporters are optimistic about what's next.
“特朗普团队重视MAHA运动,仅限于他们能从我们这里获得什么,”莱恩·科赫说道,他是肯尼迪总统竞选团队的前中西部地区主任,他希望分裂政府能意味着两党都会更多地迎合MAHA选民群体。
“The Trump team valued the MAHA movement to the extent of what they could get from us,” said Lane Koch, the former Midwest regional director on Kennedy’s presidential campaign who hopes divided government will mean both parties will do more to cater to the MAHA voter base.
“我希望[民主党人]采纳MAHA原则,帮助我们摆脱与MAGA和特朗普的负面关联。”
“I hope that [Democrats] take the MAHA principles and help us remove the negative affiliation from MAGA and Trump.”