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记者手记:中期选举如何改变众议院弹劾海格斯的格局Reporter's Notebook: How midterms may change the House impeachment equation for Hegseth

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美国战争部长皮特·赫格塞斯于2026年9月30日在弗吉尼亚州匡提科的海军陆战队匡提科基地发表“部队状况”演讲。赫格塞斯部长向初级军官、基层领导以及包括安德鲁尔工业公司联合创始人在内的特邀嘉宾发表了“部队状况”演讲。U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth gives a State of the Force address at Marine Corps Base Quantico on September 30, 2026 in Quantico, Virginia. Secretary Hegseth delivered his State of the Force address to junior officers, enlisted leaders, and special guests including Anduril Industries co-founder

共和党籍肯塔基州众议员托马斯·马西(Thomas Massie)计划下周重新提出弹劾五角大楼负责人皮特·海格斯(Pete Hegseth)的条款。众议院实际上弹劾海格斯的可能性越来越高。

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., plans to reintroduce articles of impeachment for Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth next week. The chances are increasingly high that the House could in fact impeach Hegseth.

马西曾在中期选举前试图弹劾海格斯。但众议院在九月份提前休会,扼杀了马西的努力。共和党籍路易斯安那州众议员、众议院议长迈克·约翰逊(Mike Johnson)谴责了马西的努力。但他坚称,他并非因为担心众议院有足够票数弹劾海格斯而让议员们提前回家。

Massie tried to impeach Hegseth before the midterms. But the House adjourned a day early in September, nixing Massie’s effort. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., condemned the effort by Massie. But insisted that he didn’t send members home early because of fear that the House had the votes to impeach Hegseth.

因此,马西的弹劾条款失效了。但他将在下周重新提出。根据规则,众议院必须在两天内审议这些条款。

So Massie’s articles of impeachment expired. But he will reintroduce them next week. Under the rules, the House must consider them within two days.

众议院有可能采取动议搁置这些条款,或将其送交委员会,从而扼杀这一努力。但越来越多的众议院共和党人对海格斯表示不满。在众议院试图驳回这些条款的任何努力都可能不会奏效。这关乎数学问题。

It’s possible the House could move to table the articles, or send them to committee, euthanizing the effort. But a growing number of House Republicans have grumbled about Hegseth. Any effort to dismiss the articles in the House might not work. It’s about the math.

众议员托马斯·马西(共和党-肯塔基州)于2026年6月25日星期四在本周最后一次投票后离开美国国会大厦。(Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., leaves the U.S. Capitol after the last votes of the week on Thursday, June 25, 2026. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

所有民主党人都可能投票弹劾。一些共和党人私下表示希望弹劾。现在,中期选举之后,有更多的共和党人希望与特朗普总统拉开距离。此外,伊朗战争直接导致了共和党的惨败。因此,可能有更多的共和党人愿意弹劾。最后,共和党可能面临出席人数问题。那些输掉选举——或者对输掉选举感到震惊——的议员可能不会出现。换句话说,下周众议院的民主党人可能比共和党人多。别忘了,一些共和党人在选举后现在正在寻找替罪羊。弹劾需要简单多数。然后众议院会将弹劾条款提交参议院。

All Democrats are likely to vote to impeach. There are some Republicans who have said privately they’d like to impeach. Now, after the midterms, you have more Republicans hoping to build distance between themselves and President Trump. Moreover, the war in Iran contributed directly to the GOP’s thumping. So even more Republicans may be willing to impeach. Finally, the GOP may have attendance problems. Members who lost — or were shocked that they lost — might not show up. In other words, there may be more Democrats in the House next week than Republicans. Don’t forget that some Republicans are now looking for a scapegoat after the election. A simple majority is necessary to impeach. Then the House would send the articles of impeachment to the Senate.

根据参议院的弹劾规则,参议院必须至少收到并审议弹劾条款。但它可以迅速采取行动予以驳回。几年前,参议院审议前国土安全部长亚历杭德罗·马约卡斯(Alejandro Mayorkas)的弹劾条款时,发生的就是这种情况。弹劾程序的真正“审判”环节——参议院听取辩论、证人证词并采纳证据——从未发生。

Under Senate rules of impeachment, the Senate must at least receive and consider the articles. But it could move quickly to dismiss. That’s what happened when the Senate considered articles of impeachment for former Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas a few years ago. The bona fide "trial" part of the process never happened where the Senate heard arguments, listened to witnesses and took evidence.

驳回此类弹劾条款只需简单多数票。同样,这可能发生在共和党控制的参议院。但即将离任的共和党参议员约翰·科宁(John Cornyn,得克萨斯州)、汤姆·蒂利斯(Thom Tillis,北卡罗来纳州)和比尔·卡西迪(Bill Cassidy,路易斯安那州)会如何投票?

It takes a simple majority to dismiss such articles. Again, this could happen under a Republican-controlled Senate. But how might outgoing Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Bill Cassidy, R-La., vote?

这还不包括共和党参议员丽莎·穆尔科夫斯基(Lisa Murkowski,阿拉斯加州)、约翰·柯蒂斯(John Curtis,阿拉斯加州)、托德·杨(Todd Young,印第安纳州)等人。在参议院的弹劾审判中,需要三分之二的投票才能定罪并罢免。

That’s to say nothing of Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, John Curtis, R-Alaska, Todd Young ,R-Ind., and others. It takes a two-thirds vote to convict and remove in a Senate impeachment trial.

一张分割图像,包含特朗普总统、参议员汤姆·蒂利斯(共和党-北卡罗来纳州)和约翰·科宁(共和党-得克萨斯州)。(Eddie Seal/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Aaron Schwartz/AFP via Getty Images; Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc)A split image of President Trump, Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and John Cornyn, R-Texas (Eddie Seal/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Aaron Schwartz/AFP via Getty Images; Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc;)

此外,与不太可能通过的立法不同,弹劾条款会延续到新一届国会。新一届由民主党控制的参议院是否愿意从一开始就陷入弹劾审判的泥潭?尤其是在新当选的民主党人希望就可负担性和医疗保健进行投票的时候?

In addition, unlikely legislation, articles of impeachment carry over into the new Congress. Would a new Democratically-controlled Senate want to get bogged down in an impeachment trial from the start? Especially when new Democrats want to vote on affordability and health care?

或者,民主党参议院是否会拥抱对赫格斯(Hegseth)进行全面弹劾审判的想法——尤其是考虑到在伊朗的战争执行情况似乎是本周选举惨败的主要原因之一?

Or, would a Democratic Senate embrace the idea of a full-blown impeachment trial for Hegseth – especially since the execution of the war in Iran seems to be one of the main reasons for this week’s electoral shellacking?

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