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美国农业部将在数据出错后推出人工智能工具核查作物产量数据USDA to launch AI tool to check crop production data after errors

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文件照片:人工智能(AI)字样和键盘显示在2026年10月19日创建的此插图中。路透社/Dado Ruvic/插图/文件照片FILE PHOTO: The words "AI Artificial Intelligence" and a keyboard are displayed in this illustration created on October 19, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

芝加哥,11月6日电:美国农业部官员表示,该部门将使用其自行开发的人工智能工具,核查下周发布的月度作物生产报告中的数据。此前,一系列数据失误削弱了农民和交易商对其预测的信任。

CHICAGO, Nov 6 : The US Department of Agriculture will use an artificial intelligence tool it built to check data in next week's monthly crop production report, agency officials said, after a series of data missteps eroded farmers' and traders' trust in its forecasts.

美国农业部副部长斯科特·哈钦斯在接受采访时表示,在农业部发现其9月玉米数据存在错误后,官员们确定该AI工具本会标记出该问题,并决定在11月10日发布的作物生产报告中使用该工具。

After the USDA discovered errors in its corn data from September, officials determined the AI tool would have flagged the problem and decided to use it on the crop production report due on November 10, USDA Under Secretary Scott Hutchins said in an interview.

该工具的首次亮相将检验该机构能否恢复市场对其数据的信心,这些数据往往会推动市场波动。

The tool's debut tests whether the agency can restore confidence in data that often moves markets.

哈钦斯周四表示:“我非常看好我们将能在未来利用这些工具,帮助我们避免这类真正令人遗憾的错误。”

"I'm very bullish on the fact that we'll be able to utilize these tools in the future to help us avoid these kinds of really, truly unfortunate errors," Hutchins said on Thursday.

上个月,美国农业部修正了其9月玉米产量和单产数据。修正使内布拉斯加州(第三大玉米产州)的单产估值上调约3%,堪萨斯州的单产估值下调约2%。

Last month, the USDA corrected its September corn production and yield data. The correction raised the yield estimate by about 3 per cent in Nebraska, the third-biggest corn-producing state, and lowered it by about 2 per cent in Kansas.

该机构长期被视为全球农业市场信息的“金标准”,此前曾因大幅上调去年玉米种植面积估值而受到批评。今夏,它还曾发布不准确的牛肉出口销售数据。

The agency, long viewed as the gold standard of global agricultural market information, previously faced criticism after it made sharp upward revisions to estimates for last year's corn acreage. Over the summer, it reported inaccurate beef export sales data.

美国农业部此前表示,正在启动一个试点项目,将更多地依赖技术手段改进作物种植面积和单产估算,因为回应其调查的农民越来越少。

The USDA previously said it was launching a pilot project that would rely more heavily on technology to improve crop acreage and yield estimates as fewer farmers respond to its surveys.

计算机文件错误 美国农业部国家农业统计局农业统计委员会主席兰斯·霍尼格告诉路透社,一份计算机文件错误地合并了实地调查员收集的灌溉和非灌溉玉米亩数数据,导致了9月数据出现错误。他表示,堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州受到影响,是因为这两个州拥有较高比例的灌溉田,而灌溉田通常单产较高。

COMPUTER FILE ERROR Lance Honig, chair of the agricultural statistics board for USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, told Reuters that a computer file incorrectly combined data on irrigated and non-irrigated corn acres gathered by field surveyors, causing the errors in September's data. Kansas and Nebraska were affected because they have higher percentages of irrigated fields, which often have higher yields, he said.

霍尼格表示:“9月发生的这个错误,字面上讲是一个非常孤立的事件,坦白说,如果有适当的验证,我们本应能发现它。在田间层面收集的数据没有问题。”

"This error that occurred in September is literally a very isolated occurrence that, quite frankly, with the proper validation, we should have caught," Honig said. "There was no issue with the data that was gathered at the field level."

这些错误激怒了农民,他们正努力盈利,却要为柴油、化肥和其他投入品的飙涨价格买单。上个月,代表3.5万名农民的全美玉米种植者协会表示,9月的错误不可接受,并进一步损害了农民对美国农业部出具准确报告能力的信心。

The errors angered farmers who are struggling to make money as they pay soaring prices for diesel, fertilizer and other inputs. Last month, the National Corn Growers Association, which represents 35,000 farmers, said the September errors were unacceptable and had further hurt farmers' confidence in the USDA's ability to produce accurate reports.

印第安纳州经纪公司A/C Trading总裁吉姆·格拉赫周五表示:“你根本不知道美国农业部接下来会做什么。他们的报告变得如此反复无常。”在唐纳德·特朗普总统政府去年大幅精简政府规模后,联邦数据的公信力受到质疑。美国农业部数千名员工离职,专家担心这些削减削弱了该机构生产准确及时数据的能力。

"You just don't know what the USDA is going to do anymore," said Jim Gerlach, president of brokerage A/C Trading in Indiana, on Friday. "Their reports have become so erratic." Questions around the credibility of federal data increased after President Donald Trump's administration sharply downsized the government last year. Thousands of employees at the USDA have left, and experts have worried the cuts hobbled the agency's ability to produce accurate and timely data.

哈钦斯表示,9月的错误与人员流失无关。他说,新的AI工具将补充而非取代该机构的数据验证。

Hutchins said the September errors were not related to staffing losses. The new AI tool will add to, not replace, the agency's data validation, he said.

哈钦斯说:“该工具基本上将用作一种检查,以确保在常规流程中没有我们未能看到或识别出的异常情况。”

"The tool is basically going to be used as a check to make sure that there are no anomalies that we were not able to see or identify in the normal process," Hutchins said.

本周,市场分析师质疑另一份关于大豆加工的月度美国农业部报告的准确性,该报告显示爱荷华州大豆压榨量与豆粕产量之间存在巨大差距。美国农业部表示,正在作为常规流程的一部分审查该报告,并将在下个月进行必要的修订。

This week, market analysts questioned the accuracy of another monthly USDA report on soy processing which showed a sharp divide between how many soybeans were crushed and how much soymeal was produced in Iowa. The USDA said it was reviewing the report as part of a normal process and would make any necessary revisions next month.

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