如果我不持有英伟达股票，我周一不会买入。该股票大概率会从开盘价进一步下跌。话虽如此，英伟达仍然代表着我们拥有的最前沿技术，这一点不会消失。首席执行官黄仁勋拥有的相当深厚的人才储备也不会消失——这对于一位63岁高龄的公司掌舵人来说是必要的。那么，为什么不买入呢？因为黄仁勋与一名被指控的中国间谍的关系，他现在承认了——最初曾向媒体否认——这件事将会给这只股票带来巨大打击，仅仅因为没有人知道这项调查将走向何方。
If I didn't own Nvidia , I wouldn't buy it on Monday. The stock will probably go lower from wherever it opens. That said, Nvidia still represents the most cutting-edge tech we have, and that won't go away. Nor is the considerable bench that CEO Jensen Huang has — something needed when a 63-year-old is running the company. So, why not buy it? Because the affair with an accused Chinese spy that Jensen had and now admits to — after initially denying it to the press — is going to take a big chunk out of this stock simply because no one knows where this investigation is going to go.
那么，为什么不卖出呢？对冲基金明智的做法是卖出，然后稍后再买回。但我不知道要等多久，而且我们也不是对冲基金经理。我认为英伟达将在11月17日公布出色的业绩。我不认为，即使在民主党在选举中掀起“蓝色浪潮”之后，数据中心的故事就已经结束了。它放缓了，但仍然存在。简单的事实是，如果你购买英伟达的产品——不是黄仁勋的，而是英伟达的——就像埃隆·马斯克所做的那样，你可以通过出售算力或使用算力来获得巨大回报。
So, why not sell it? A hedge fund would be wise to sell it, and then buy it back later. But I don't know how much later, and we are not hedge fund managers. I think Nvidia will report outstanding numbers on Nov. 17. I do not believe that, even after the Democratic wave in the election, the data center story is played out. It is slowed, but it is still alive. The simple fact is that if you buy Nvidia's product — not Jensen's, but Nvidia's — like Elon Musk has, you can make a huge return either by selling the compute or by using the compute.
英伟达的图形处理器（GPU）比人们想象的更耐用。算力比人们意识到的更有价值。但黄仁勋的故事呢？它很复杂，而复杂意味着漫长的调查，漫长的调查，毫无疑问会涉及多个政府机构，这对股东来说意味着“死钱”。财报公布不会澄清任何事情，尽管我相信业绩会非常好，以至于即使黄仁勋因这件事被边缘化但仍留在公司，你也可能看到股价反弹。
Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) last longer than people think. Compute is worth more than people realize. But Jensen's story? It is complicated, and complicated means long investigations, and long investigations, no doubt by multiple government entities, spell dead money for shareholders. Nothing will be cleared up by earnings, although I do believe that the numbers will be so good that you could get a rally even with Jensen sidelined by this and yet still with the company.
黄仁勋做了不当的事情吗？当然。他承认了。他难道不应该意识到，他不仅仅是一个丈夫和父亲，而是当今时代 arguably 最重要公司的首席执行官，也是股东的受托人吗？这还用说吗。
Did Jensen do something inappropriate? Of course. He admitted it. Should he have realized that he is not just a husband and a father but the CEO of arguably the most important company of our time and a steward of the shareholders? No kidding.
不过，我并非在此对他个人做出评判，因为他做了别人也做过的事，做了一件蠢事，我相信他肯定后悔做了这件事。现在谈这个已经太迟了。出轨？那是詹森和他家人的事。真正让这只股票很难持有，或者说，中期选举后更难持有的，是调查和新闻报道。我从根本上认为，这本质上只是一段出轨故事。我不认为詹森把英伟达的专有秘密告诉了美加速的艾丽丝·黄（与她无亲无故，只是同名）。
I am not, however, here to judge him personally for doing something that others have done, for doing something stupid, that I am sure he wishes he hadn't done. It is way too late for that. The infidelity? That's between Jensen and his family. It's the investigations and the news flow that are going to make it a very hard stock to own, or, should I say, an even harder stock to own post-midterms. I, fundamentally, believe that this was a story just about infidelity. I do not think that Jensen gave Megaspeed's Alice Huang (no relation, just the same name) any proprietary Nvidia secrets.
我不认为他危害了国家安全。我相信，他不知道她是美国情报官员认为属于中国阴谋的一部分，该阴谋旨在窃取商业秘密或我们政府的政策。我不认为他告诉她任何关于自己与美国政府关系、而我们不知道或无法推断的事情。我不认为那是一段严肃的关系。我所想的都无关紧要。没有哪个“无辜但头脑简单”的叙事能来拯救他或他的股东，因为这个故事太过诱人，无人能忽视或不加利用，尤其是那些希望股价下跌的人，而这样的人已经不少了。
I do not think he compromised national security. I believe that he did not know she was part of what U.S. intelligence officials think was a Chinese plot to find out trade secrets or our government's policy. I do not think he told her anything about his relationship with the U.S. government that we don't know or can't figure out. I don't think it was a serious relationship. None of what I think matters. No innocent but knuckleheaded narrative is going to come to save him or his shareholders because this one is just too juicy to ignore and exploit, especially for anyone who wants this stock down, and there were many who do already.
那么，艾丽丝·黄是谁？詹森为什么要花时间和她在一起？英伟达认识她是美加速的代表，美加速是一家新云公司，自称是东南亚版的CoreWeave。据我了解，詹森最初与她亲密时，对这家公司的了解就是这样的。他不会明知商务部禁止他与某家公司交易而仍去做生意，而且我不相信当时商务部告诉过他不要这样做。我们不知道的事情有：（1）艾丽丝·黄在公司的真实角色，有人说她是首席执行官，也有人说她只是高层高管；（2）詹森是否在10月之后与她断绝了关系？
So, who is Alice Huang and why did Jensen spend time with her? Nvidia knew her as a representative of Megaspeed, a neocloud company that fashioned itself as a Southeast Asian CoreWeave-type. My understanding is that this is what Jensen knew about the company when he was first intimate with her. He would not have knowingly done business with a company that the Commerce Department told him not to, and I do not believe the Commerce Department told him not to at the time. What we don't know: (1) Alice Huang's real role at the company, which some say was CEO, and others say was just a high-level executive; (2) Did Jensen break it off after an Oct. 9, 2025 story in The New York Times, which implied that there was a relationship with her but unquestionably told a story of a company linked to the People's Republic of China.
《纽约时报》2025年9月的一篇报道暗示她与他有关系，但毫无疑问讲述了一家与中华人民共和国有关联的公司的故事。我听说她大约在2025年10月那篇文章发表时离开了该公司，但我无法确认这一点。不过，我知道的是，如果她在那之后继续留在Megaspeed，而他也在同一篇文章发表后继续这段婚外情，那么英伟达董事会将很难继续让他留任。
I am told she left the company around the time of that October 2025 article, but I can't confirm that. What I do know, though, is that if she stayed at Megaspeed after that and he continued the affair after that same article, the Nvidia board will be hard-pressed to continue to let him work there.
在我看来，在那篇文章发表后继续与她保持婚外情，是一种鲁莽行为，理应让董事会要求他下台。英伟达董事会已就此事展开调查。再说一次，如果他在文章发表后继续与她保持婚外情，我认为他现在就应该辞职。我本不愿写下这些话，但我知道，如果我身在董事会，除非出现某种情有可原的情况，否则我很难让他继续留任。
Continuing an affair with her after that article seems to me to be a level of recklessness that warrants him being asked to step down by the board. Nvidia's board has opened an investigation into this. Actually, again, if he continued to have an affair after the article, I think he should resign now. I wish I didn't have to write that, but I know if I were on the board, I would have a hard time letting him stay without some extenuating circumstance coming to light.
这实在太不负责任了。我们还从最近一篇《纽约时报》的报道中得知，特朗普总统曾被简报英伟达与Megaspeed的密切关系——据我们了解，他选择了不作为。我们知道，民主党不会让故事的这一方面不了了之。共和党人也想要答案。黄仁勋已经在国会山面临两党的审查。更多调查。又一个你不能买入该股票的原因。我现在就这些。
It's just too darned irresponsible. We also know from a recent New York Times article that President Donald Trump was briefed on Nvidia's close role with Megaspeed — and from what we can tell, chose to do nothing. We know the Democrats are not going to let that aspect of the story die. Republicans want answers, too. Jensen already faces bipartisan scrutiny on Capitol Hill. More investigations. Another reason you can't buy the stock. That's all I have right now.
在这之后，这是一只“持有不交易”的股票吗？我认为英伟达有很强的后备力量——但没有黄仁勋，它就只是另一只股票，一只可以持有和交易的股票，因为它顶层有一群优秀的人。目前，它处于由黄仁勋制造的炼狱之中。如果我们能避免炼狱，就必须这样做。（吉姆·克莱默的慈善信托持有NVDA多头头寸。）
Is it an "own it, don't trade it stock" after this? I think there is a big bench at Nvidia — but without Jensen, it is just another stock, a stock that can be owned and traded because it has a good group of people at the top. For now, it is in a purgatory created by Jensen. If we can avoid purgatories, we must do so. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long NVDA. )