油价周一走低，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，只要结束冲突的谈判继续进行，他极不可能下令对伊朗发动新的军事打击。然而，霍尔木兹海峡及周边海域发生的袭船事件，使人们对全球石油供应可能中断的担忧依然存在。
Oil prices declined on Monday after US President Donald Trump indicated that he was unlikely to order fresh military strikes against Iran as long as talks to end the conflict continued. However, attacks on ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz kept concerns about possible disruptions to global oil supplies alive.
据路透社报道，截至周一格林威治时间1011，布伦特原油期货下跌75美分，跌幅0.75%，报每桶97.57美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货也下跌38美分，跌幅0.4%，报每桶90.45美元。
Brent crude futures fell 75 cents, or 0.75%, to $97.57 per barrel by 1011 GMT on Monday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also dropped 38 cents, or 0.4%, to $90.45 per barrel, Reuters reported.
布伦特原油录得新冠疫情以来最大周跌幅上周布伦特原油价格暴跌16%。这是该基准原油自新冠疫情爆发以来最大单周跌幅，显示出在美伊冲突和全球供应预期变化的影响下，油价下跌之剧烈。
Brent crude records biggest weekly fall since CovidBrent crude prices plunged 16% last week. This was the benchmark's biggest weekly decline since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, showing how sharply oil prices have fallen amid changing expectations about the US-Iran conflict and global supplies.US-Iran peace hopes push oil prices lowerOil prices have continued to decline because investors are hopeful that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement.
美伊和平预期推低油价油价持续下跌，因投资者抱有美国和伊朗可能达成和平协议的希望。盛宝银行分析师奥勒·汉森表示，油价走低是因为对美伊和平协议的期待，而非明确的进展迹象。他补充说，特朗普最新言论表明对伊朗发动新打击的可能性极低，这进一步给油价施加了压力。
Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said oil was trading lower because of hopes for a US-Iran peace deal rather than clear signs of progress. He added that Trump's latest comments, indicating that fresh strikes against Iran were highly unlikely, had added further pressure on oil prices.
现货油市疲软是油价下跌的另一原因。瑞银分析师乔瓦尼·斯陶诺沃表示，中东地区持续的高油流量正在给价格带来压力。这意味着尽管对冲突存有担忧，但该地区石油供应依然强劲。
Weakness in the physical oil market is another reason behind the fall in prices. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said continued high oil flows from the Middle East were putting pressure on prices. This means that oil supplies from the region have remained strong despite concerns about the conflict.
特朗普在霍尔木兹海峡担忧中排除对伊朗新打击特朗普周日表示，只要结束冲突的谈判继续进行，他极不可能下令对伊朗发动新的攻击。
Trump rules out fresh Iran strikes amid Hormuz concernsTrump said on Sunday that he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long as negotiations to end the conflict continued.
然而，据路透社报道，即使在他发表上述言论之际，美国和伊朗也报告了在霍尔木兹海峡内或附近发生的针对航运的袭击，该海峡是全球石油运输的主要航线。在最新言论之前，特朗普曾暗示，美国可能在上周美国中期选举后重启对伊朗的袭击。然而，迄今为止没有迹象表明将有大规模美国军事行动。伊朗也警告称，将通过打击美国和以色列目标来回应任何袭击。
However, his comments came even as the US and Iran reported attacks on shipping in or near the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil transportation, according to Reuters. Before his latest comments, Trump had suggested that the US could renew attacks on Iran after last week's US midterm elections. However, there has been no indication of a large-scale US military operation so far. Iran has also warned that it would respond to any attacks by targeting US and Israeli targets.
特朗普的最新言论引发了关于他在伊朗冲突立场上是否发生长期改变的疑问。KCM Trade首席分析师蒂姆·沃特尔将特朗普的言论描述为更为审慎。不过，他表示，石油市场正在等待观察，美国中期选举是否导致特朗普处理冲突的方式发生持久变化，还只是其语气的暂时转变，据路透社报道。全球石油供应过剩引发担忧随着石油产量和供应增加而需求依然疲软，石油市场可能面临另一轮供应过剩。
Trump's latest comments have raised questions about whether his position on the Iran conflict has changed for the long term. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, described Trump's comments as more measured. However, he said oil markets were waiting to see whether the US midterm elections had led to a lasting change in Trump's approach to the conflict or whether his latest comments were only a temporary shift in tone, according to Reuters. Global oil supply surplus raises concernsOil markets could face another supply glut as oil production and supplies increase while demand remains weak.
据路透社报道，根据摩根大通周五发布的一份报告，中东石油流量恢复、其他国家增产以及需求疲软，已推动全球石油供应超过消费。
According to a JPMorgan report published on Friday, recovering oil flows from the Middle East, higher production from other countries and weak demand have pushed global oil supply above consumption.JPMorgan estimated that the global oil market had a supply surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September.
摩根大通估计，9月全球石油市场供应过剩达110万桶/日。该行预计，这一过剩将在10月扩大至140万桶/日。供应过剩意味着产油量超过消费者和企业的使用量，这可能进一步施压油价，据路透社报道。胡塞武装袭击沙特阿美，俄罗斯炼油厂起火另外，也门亲伊朗的胡塞武装组织称，对周日发生的针对利雅得沙特阿美办公室的袭击负责。
The bank expects this surplus to widen to 1.4 million barrels per day in October. A supply surplus means that more oil is being produced than consumers and businesses are using, which can put further pressure on prices, according to Reuters. Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco, fire at Russian refinerySeparately, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group said it was responsible for an attack on Saudi Aramco's offices in Riyadh on Sunday.
这一事态发展加剧了中东地区的安全担忧，该地区是主要产油区。另据报道，周一俄罗斯基里希炼油厂在遭受乌克兰无人机袭击后发生火灾。据路透社报道，州长亚历山大·德罗兹杰科在据报发生无人机袭击后确认了火灾。
The development adds to security concerns around the Middle East, a major oil-producing region. In another development, a fire broke out at Russia's Kirishi oil refinery following a Ukrainian drone attack in the region on Monday. Alexander Drozdenko, the regional governor, confirmed the fire after the reported drone attack, according to Reuters.
尽管油价在特朗普表示避免对伊朗发动新袭击的言论后有所下跌，但霍尔木兹海峡附近的航运袭击以及涉及沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯的事态发展仍在制造不确定性。投资者正密切关注美伊会谈、石油供应水平和安全局势发展，以判断原油价格走向。
Although oil prices have declined following Trump's comments about avoiding fresh attacks on Iran, shipping attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and developments involving Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to create uncertainty. Investors are closely watching the US-Iran talks, oil supply levels and security developments to understand the direction of crude oil prices.