
油价周一录得三个月来最大单日跌幅,此前一系列关于伊朗的消息令投资者希望特朗普政府能找到办法在不进一步升级的情况下结束冲突。国际基准布伦特原油下跌7.6%,收于每桶104.77美元;美国原油下跌7.3%,收于每桶96.46美元。按百分比计算,这是自7月27日以来最大单日跌幅。对这两大关键油价基准而言,按美元计算也是自4月17日以来最大单日跌幅。
Oil prices posted their sharpest drop in three months Monday, after a series of headlines on Iran gave investors hope that the Trump administration would find a way to end the conflict without further escalation. International Brent crude oil fell 7.6% to close the day at $104.77 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil dropped 7.3% to $96.46 per barrel. The plunges were the largest one-day drops by percentages since July 27. For both key oil benchmarks, it was largest single-day drop in dollar terms since April 17.
周一早些时候,伊朗官方通讯社伊尔纳援引该国总统的言论称,最高领袖已“授予政府某些权力”,以便“通过对话与‘敌人’寻求解决问题”。交易员将其解读为伊朗选择继续通过调停人与美国进行外交谈判,而不是通过进一步袭击该地区美国盟友来升级战争。此前一天,Axios报道称,“特朗普目前希望让与伊朗的谈判继续进行”。
Earlier on Monday, Iran’s IRNA news agency cited comments from the country’s president in which he said the Supreme Leader had “granted the government certain authorities” in relation to “seeking to resolve problems through dialogue” with its “enemies.”Traders read that as Iran choosing to continue diplomatic talks with the U.S. through mediators, rather than escalating the war through further strikes on American allies in the region. That report followed news Sunday that, “Trump, for now, wants to let negotiations play out” with Iran, according to Axios.
油价收盘后,NBC新闻询问唐纳德·特朗普总统是否考虑在中期选举后袭击伊朗,他两次回答“不”。随着特朗普的回应在网上流传,油价继续下跌。NBC新闻此前曾报道,特朗普曾被提交恢复对伊朗大规模战斗行动的选项,但当时官员警告称,关于战争尚未做出最终决定。
After oil prices closed for the day, NBC News asked President Donald Trump if he was considering striking Iran after the midterms and he replied “No,” twice. As Trump’s response circulated online, prices continued their descent. NBC News has previously reported that Trump was presented with options for resuming major combat operations against Iran, however officials cautioned at the time that no final decisions about the war had been made.
过去一周多份报道暗示特朗普可能在周二的中期选举后恢复袭击伊朗,进而可能导致伊朗再次攻击分布在中东各地的能源资产,能源市场因此处于紧张状态。特朗普注意到了周一的跌幅。“今天油价下跌了10美元,”特朗普在华盛顿对记者说。
Energy markets are on edge after multiple reports in the past week suggested that Trump could resume striking Iran after Tuesday’s midterm elections, which could in turn lead Iran to again attack energy assets scattered throughout the Middle East. Trump took notice of Monday’s drop. “Oil today is down $10,” Trump told reporters in Washington.
“而且价格还会大幅下跌,因为我们在与伊朗的博弈中获胜,轻松获胜。” 特朗普随后在社交媒体上发文称:“伊朗希望尽快达成和解。这可能会实现!” 尽管如此,专家表示,全球能源市场仍面临多重风险。美国银行的弗朗西斯科·布兰奇在9月写道:“导致主要能源基础设施受损的更广泛冲突,可能会将油价推高至每桶150美元。”
“And it’s going to go down a lot further because we’re winning with Iran, easily winning.”Trump later posted about it on social media, writing: “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!”Still, experts say global energy markets remain exposed to multiple risks. “A broader conflict resulting in major energy infrastructure damage may spike prices as high as $150” per barrel, Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch wrote in September.
他写道:“如果限制石油流动的冲突持续到年底,布伦特原油可能在每桶95至120美元的区间交易。” 这使得油价进一步上涨的可能性敞口大开,油价今年以来已大幅飙升,给全球消费者带来压力。自2月下旬伊朗战争爆发以来,全球油价已上涨约45%。
“If skirmishes curbing oil flows continue into year end, Brent could trade in a $95-120” per barrel range, he wrote. That leaves open the possibility of more upside to oil prices that have surged all year, pressuring consumers around the world. Since the start of the Iran war in late February, global oil prices have risen about 45%.
美国经济面临的另一个问题是柴油价格高企。周一,柴油期货下跌5.4%,录得自5月6日以来最大单日跌幅。但与原油类似,该基准价格今年以来已上涨近110%。今年柴油价格涨幅远超无铅汽油,因为伊朗战争和俄乌战争都限制了供应。俄罗斯历史上一直是向世界出口柴油的主要国家。但其炼油能力因乌克兰袭击而严重受损。
Another problem facing the U.S. economy is the high price of diesel fuel. On Monday, diesel futures slid 5.4%, their biggest one-day drop since May 6. But, similarly to oil, that benchmark is up almost 110% since the start of the year. Diesel has seen a far more dramatic price rise this year than unleaded gas, as both the Iran war and the Ukraine-Russia war have crimped supply. Russia has historically been a major exporter of diesel to the world. But it has seen its refining capacity badly damaged by Ukrainian strikes.
在短暂停顿后,乌克兰近日恢复了对俄罗斯柴油炼厂的袭击。经济学家特别担心柴油价格前所未有的上涨,因为运输消费品的燃料成本上升可能会迅速通过传导效应影响经济。截至周一上午,美国全国平均柴油价格为每加仑6.29美元,较年初上涨77%。
After a brief halt, Ukraine has resumed attacking Russian diesel refineries in recent days. Economists have been particularly concerned about the unprecedented rise in diesel prices because of the trickle-down effect that higher fuel prices for transporting consumer goods can quickly have on the economy. As of Monday morning, the average U.S. nationwide diesel price was $6.29 per gallon, up 77% since the start of the year.