周四油价下跌，因美国与伊朗重启和平谈判的希望缓解了市场对全球石油供应可能中断的担忧。不过，中东局势紧张仍给石油生产和运输带来不确定性。
Oil prices fell on Thursday as hopes of renewed peace talks between the United States and Iran eased fears of possible disruptions to global oil supplies. However, tensions in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty over oil production and shipments.
据CNBC报道，周四布伦特原油期货下跌1.73%，报每桶113.32美元。美国西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）期货也下跌2.06%，报每桶100.66美元。
美伊和平谈判据《华尔街日报》援引美国官员和知情人士报道，油价下跌源于有消息称美国副总统万斯已联系伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书礼萨伊，以重启和平谈判。
Brent crude futures fell 1.73% to $113.32 per barrel on Thursday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also declined, dropping 2.06% to $100.66 per barrel, according to CNBC.US-Iran peace talksOil prices fell after reports said US Vice President JD Vance had contacted Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Security Council, to restart peace talks. The Wall Street Journal reported this, citing US officials and people familiar with the talks.
据路透社报道，卡塔尔调解人据报也提出了一项旨在帮助伊朗、美国和以色列达成和平协议的新计划，以结束三国间的冲突。
Qatari mediators have also reportedly предложed a new plan to end the conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel. The plan aims to help the countries reach a peace deal, according to Reuters.
然而，据路透社报道，一名伊朗高级官员拒绝了这些提议，称其不可接受。这表明各国仍存在重大分歧，达成和平协议难度较大。
However, a senior Iranian official rejected the proposals, calling them unacceptable, Reuters reported. This shows that the countries still have major differences, making a peace deal difficult to reach.
纳斯达克期货下跌，Alphabet的AI支出担忧拖累科技股伊朗外长在社交媒体平台X上表示，德黑兰仍对外交努力持开放态度。他还提出，如果能达成协议，有可能加速推行一项为期七天的和平计划。这使得外交突破的希望得以维持。
Nasdaq futures fall as Alphabet's AI spending concerns weigh on tech stocksIran's foreign minister said on social media platform X that Tehran remained open to diplomatic efforts. He also raised the possibility of speeding up a proposed seven-day peace plan if an agreement could be reached. This has kept hopes of a possible diplomatic breakthrough alive.
石油供应担忧尽管存在和平谈判的希望，投资者仍担心也门胡塞武装可能发动袭击，以及美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动。据美联社报道，在美国11月3日中期选举后，美国实施打击的可能性仍可能构成担忧。
Oil supply concernsDespite hopes for peace talks, investors are still concerned about possible attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement and the prospect of US military action against Iran. The Associated Press reported that the possibility of US strikes could remain a concern following the November 3 midterm elections.
石油供应中断的持续威胁使原油价格居高不下。昂贵的石油会增加运输、制造和其他商业成本，给整体经济物价带来压力。这些通胀担忧也让央行更难决定是降息还是加息。油价与美国通胀Interactive Brokers高级经济学家何塞·托雷斯周三晚间在一份报告中表示，昂贵的原油仍是推动通胀高于目标水平的主要因素。不过他补充称，根据CNBC报道，更广泛的价格压力保持相对受控。
The ongoing threat of disruptions to oil supplies has kept crude prices high. Expensive oil can increase transport, manufacturing and other business costs, putting pressure on prices across the economy. These inflation concerns also make it harder for central banks to decide whether to cut or raise interest rates. Oil prices and US inflationJosé Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in a note late Wednesday that expensive crude oil remained the main factor pushing inflation above the target level. However, he added that broader price pressures had remained relatively contained, according to CNBC.
托雷斯表示，集中在能源领域的通胀压力支持美联储采取更耐心的做法。这一点尤为重要，因为反映除临时或波动性变化之外价格趋势的核心通胀保持相对温和。美联储利率前景托雷斯指出，为应对石油供给冲击而过度大幅加息可能削弱就业并加剧信贷风险。较高利率会增加家庭和企业的借贷成本，从而可能拖慢经济活动。
Torres said inflation pressures concentrated in the energy sector supported a more patient approach from the US Federal Reserve. This is particularly important because underlying inflation, which reflects price trends beyond temporary or volatile changes, remained relatively subdued. Federal Reserve interest rate outlookTorres suggested that raising interest rates too sharply in response to an oil supply shock could weaken employment and worsen credit risks. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for households and businesses, potentially slowing economic activity.
托雷斯称，地缘政治局势可能接近解决，有望缓解通胀压力。据CNBC报道，如果紧张局势缓和且油价下跌，美联储可能面临较小的进一步加息压力。
Torres said a geopolitical resolution could be close, potentially easing inflationary pressures. If tensions decline and oil prices fall, the Federal Reserve may face less pressure to raise interest rates further, according to CNBC.
托雷斯补充说，WTI原油价格若跌向每桶70美元，可能大幅增强最终降息的理由。不过，这将取决于油价、通胀及其他经济状况如何演变。
Torres added that a decline in WTI crude prices towards $70 per barrel could significantly strengthen the case for eventual interest-rate cuts. However, this would depend on how oil prices, inflation and other economic conditions develop.