周四油价大幅飙升，原因是唐纳德·特朗普总统正在权衡是否在未来几周内恢复美国在伊朗的大规模军事行动。布伦特原油在早盘交易中上涨超过5%，突破每桶105美元；美国原油上涨近5%，接近每桶93美元。基准柴油期货在欧洲交易时段上涨4.5%。作为航空燃油替代指标的取暖油价格上涨超过4%。油价的上涨也推高了债券收益率。
The price of oil on jumped sharply Thursday, as President Donald Trump weighs whether to resume large-scale U.S. military operations in Iran in the coming weeks. Brent crude oil rose more than 5% to over $105 per barrel in early trading, while U.S. crude oil rose almost 5% to nearly $93 per barrel. Benchmark diesel futures jumped 4.5% in European trading. Heating oil, a proxy for jet fuel, rose more than 4%. The move higher in oil prices also pushed up bond yields.
对消费者借贷利率影响巨大的10年期美国国债收益率跃升至5.35%。这一水平实际上扭转了周三晚些时候收益率的跌势。其他所有美国国债的收益率也均有所上升。受此影响，美国股指期货下跌。标普500指数期货下跌0.6%，纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.8%。追踪中小型企业的罗素2000指数期货下跌1%。
The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences consumer borrowing rates, jumped to 5.35%. That level effectively reversed a drop in yields seen late Wednesday. The yield on every other Treasury bond also rose. U.S. stock futures dropped in response. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.8%. Futures for the Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium sized companies, fell 1%.
据知情人士向美国全国广播公司新闻台（NBC News）透露，目前尚未就恢复在伊朗的作战行动做出任何决定。但随着中期选举临近，距离投票日不足一个月，且提前投票已经开始，特朗普政府在未来几周采取的任何实质性行动都极有可能对选民的态度产生一定影响。恢复对伊朗目标的大规模美国空袭将标志着战争的重大升级，并终结华盛顿与德黑兰之间维持了三个月的不稳定僵局。
No decisions have yet been made yet about resuming combat operations in Iran, people familiar with the discussions told NBC News. But with the midterm elections less than a month out and early voting already underway, any substantial action by the Trump White House in the coming weeks would be likely to have at least some impact on voter attitudes. A return to large-scale U.S. strikes on Iranian targets would represent a significant escalation in the war and an end to the uneasy stalemate between Washington and Tehran that has held for three months.
美国军队恢复在伊朗作战行动的前景最早由《大西洋月刊》于周三报道。伊朗对商业航运的小规模袭击已导致霍尔木兹海峡的交通量降至战前水平的一小部分，而该海峡是全球石油供应的关键动脉。根据MarineTraffic的数据，从9月28日到10月4日，该海峡的日均交通量不足23艘船。战争爆发前，每天有数百艘船只通过该水道，将原油及相关产品运往全球市场。
The prospect of U.S. forces resuming combat operations in Iran was first reported Wednesday by The Atlantic. Smaller scale Iranian attacks on commercial shipping have reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supplies, to just a fraction of pre-war levels. From Sept. 28 through Oct. 4, daily traffic in the strait averaged fewer than 23 ships a day, according to data from MarineTraffic. Before the war, hundreds of ships per day passed through the waterway delivering crude oil and related products to global markets.
石油及大宗商品市场专家多次警告称，若伊朗局势进一步恶化，油价必将持续攀升。美国银行全球大宗商品主管弗朗西斯科·布兰奇在9月初写道：“市场仍面临诸多重大风险。如果阻碍石油输送的冲突持续至年底，布伦特原油价格可能维持在每桶95至120美元的区间。而若爆发大规模冲突并导致重要能源基础设施受损，油价甚至可能飙升至每桶150美元。”
Oil and commodities market experts have repeatedly warned that any escalation in the fighting in Iran will cause oil prices to trend even higher. “The market remains exposed to significant risks,” wrote Bank of America head of global commodities Francisco Blanch in early September. “If skirmishes curbing oil flows continue into year end, Brent could trade in a $95-120/bbl range.”“Meanwhile, a broader conflict resulting in major energy infrastructure damage may spike prices as high as $150/bbl,” he added.”
与此同时，由于各产油国纷纷努力满足市场需求，那些并未直接受霍尔木兹海峡封锁影响的国家，其原油运输成本也创下历史新高。据彭博社援引伦敦波罗的海交易所的数据显示，目前一艘油轮将美国原油运往亚洲需花费7700万美元，而2025年同一条航线的平均运输成本仅为920万美元。原油价格持续走高也导致消费者面临的汽油价格居高不下，眼下距离美国中期选举投票日仅剩几周时间。
The cost to ship crude oil from countries that are not directly impacted by the closure of the strait has also reached new highs, as producers scramble to meet demand. It now costs $77 million for a crude carrier to move U.S. oil to Asia, according Bloomberg, which cited data from the Baltic Exchange in London. The average price for the same route in 2025 was just $9.2 million. The continued elevation of crude oil prices has caused gas prices to remain higher for consumers, with just weeks until polls close in the midterm elections.
周四，全美普通无铅汽油的平均价格为每加仑4.36美元，这一数值较2月28日战争爆发时上涨了45%以上。受近期俄乌冲突升级的影响，柴油价格涨幅更为惊人，目前每加仑售价已达6.28美元，较2月28日上涨了近70%。
On Thursday, the national average price for regular unleaded gas was $4.36 per gallon. That price is more than 45% higher than when the war began on Feb. 28. Diesel fuel prices have soared even more, spurred on by recent escalations in the Ukraine-Russia war. At $6.28 per gallon, diesel has risen almost 70% since Feb. 28.